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亚马逊(AMZN):25Q3点评:AWS增长重回20%区间,明年CapEx继续增长
Huaan Securities· 2025-11-06 04:52
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Amazon (AMZN.O) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, Amazon reported revenues of $180.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 13%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1.32%. Operating income remained flat at $17.4 billion compared to the same period last year, but was below Bloomberg's expectations by 11.66%. Excluding special expenses, operating income would have been $21.7 billion. GAAP net profit reached $21.2 billion, a 38% increase year-over-year, surpassing Bloomberg's expectations by 25.70% [4][5] - AWS revenue grew by 20% year-over-year to $33 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's forecast of 17.9% growth. The operating profit for AWS was $11.4 billion, with an operating margin of 34.6% [5][6] - The company expects Q4 2025 revenues to be between $206 billion and $213 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 10% to 13% [7] Summary by Sections Company Performance - Overall, Amazon's Q3 2025 revenue was $180.2 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 13%. Operating income was $17.4 billion, flat compared to last year, but below expectations. GAAP net profit was $21.2 billion, a 38% increase year-over-year [4][5] - Online store revenue was $67.4 billion, up 10% year-over-year. Third-party retail revenue was $42.5 billion, up 12%. Subscription revenue was $12.6 billion, up 11%. Advertising revenue was $17.7 billion, up 24% [5][6] AWS Performance - AWS revenue grew by 20.2% year-over-year to $33 billion, with an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $132 billion. The operating profit for AWS was $11.4 billion, with a margin of 34.6% [5][6] - AWS backlog increased to $200 billion by the end of Q3, with new orders in October exceeding the total transactions of Q3 [5][6] Capital Expenditure and AI Demand - Amazon anticipates a cash capital expenditure of approximately $125 billion for 2025, with further increases expected in 2026 to support AWS's AI and core service demands [5][6] - The demand for AI is strong, with Amazon's custom AI chip Trainium2 fully booked, contributing to a multi-billion dollar business [5][6] Retail and Advertising Business - The North America segment's operating profit was $4.8 billion, with a margin of 4.5%. Excluding special expenses, the operating profit would have been $7.3 billion, with a margin of 6.9% [5][6] - Advertising revenue accelerated to $17.7 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase, marking three consecutive quarters of growth [5][6] Future Guidance - For Q4 2025, Amazon expects revenues of $206 billion to $213 billion, with an operating income forecast of $21 billion to $26 billion, compared to $21.2 billion in the same quarter last year [7] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are $715.5 billion, $796.1 billion, and $884.4 billion, with net profits expected to be $78.3 billion, $85.9 billion, and $104.4 billion respectively [9]
亚马逊(AMZN):2025Q3 财报点评:电商增长有韧性,AWS 收入提速
Guohai Securities· 2025-11-05 15:36
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company's e-commerce growth remains resilient, and AWS revenue is accelerating [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenues of $180.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 13%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 1.3% [3]. - The company expects Q4 2025 revenues to be between $206 billion and $213 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 10% to 13% [3]. Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, the breakdown of revenue by business segment shows: - Online store revenue of $67.4 billion (YOY +10%) - Physical store revenue of $5.6 billion (YOY +7%) - Subscription services revenue of $12.6 billion (YOY +11%) - Advertising services revenue of $17.7 billion (YOY +24%) - Third-party seller revenue of $42.5 billion (YOY +12%) [5]. - North America business revenue reached $106.3 billion (YOY +11%), while international business revenue was $40.9 billion (YOY +14%) [5]. AWS Performance - AWS achieved revenue of $33 billion in Q3 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 20%, the largest growth since 2022 [5]. - AWS operating profit was $11.4 billion (YOY +9%), driven by strong growth in AI and core services [5]. Capital Expenditure and AI Development - Capital expenditures in Q3 2025 were $34.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 61%, primarily invested in data centers and chips for AI model development [5]. - The company anticipates total capital expenditures for 2025 to be approximately $125 billion, exceeding market expectations of $118.8 billion [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are $711 billion, $800 billion, and $900 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of $76.5 billion, $87.9 billion, and $108.9 billion [8]. - The report estimates a P/E ratio of 35.5x for 2025, decreasing to 24.9x by 2027 [8]. Valuation - Using the SOTP valuation method, the target market capitalization for the company in 2025 is set at $308.89 billion, with a target price of $289 per share [8]. - The company maintains a strong competitive position in global e-commerce, supported by its FBA fulfillment and Prime membership systems [8].
亚马逊发布一季度财报:盈利超预期 受关税影响预期业绩疲软
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-05-02 02:08
Core Insights - The company reported quarterly revenue of $155.7 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, exceeding Visible Alpha analysts' expectations [3] - Net profit for the first quarter was $17.1 billion, or $1.59 per share, compared to $10.4 billion, or $0.98 per share in the same period last year, surpassing Wall Street forecasts [3] - CEO Andy Jassy noted an increase in purchasing in certain categories, suggesting consumers may be stockpiling ahead of potential tariff impacts [3] Revenue Breakdown - Online store sales grew by 6% to $57.41 billion, exceeding expectations [3] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue increased by 17% to $29.27 billion, slightly below the forecast of $29.38 billion [3] Future Outlook - The company forecasts second-quarter revenue between $159 billion and $164 billion, roughly in line with Wall Street's expectation of $161.27 billion [3] - However, the projected operating income of $13 billion to $17.5 billion is significantly lower than analyst expectations [3] Pricing Strategy - CEO Jassy emphasized the importance of maintaining low prices amid uncertain tariff policies, stating that the company is focused on this aspect [4] - The company has implemented measures to keep prices low, including advance inventory purchases and supply chain diversification [4] Stock Performance - The company's stock fell approximately 3% in after-hours trading, with a cumulative decline of 13% for the year as of Thursday's close [4]