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深度*公司*同程旅行(00780.HK):下沉市场OTA龙头 拥抱大众旅游时代红利
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-11 03:21
Company Overview - Tongcheng Travel is a leading OTA in China's lower-tier markets, benefiting from the tourism boom and backed by major shareholders Tencent and Ctrip, which provide significant traffic and supply chain advantages [1][2] - The company was formed from the merger of Tongcheng and eLong, positioning itself among the top three in the OTA industry [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 17.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.79 billion yuan, up 26.7% year-on-year [1] Industry Dynamics - The online travel market is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2024, driven by high demand in the cultural tourism sector and low penetration rates in lower-tier cities [1][2] - The current market structure is characterized by one dominant player (Ctrip) and several strong competitors (Tongcheng, Meituan, Fliggy) engaging in differentiated competition [2] Competitive Advantages - The company has over 80% of its users from non-first-tier cities, allowing it to capitalize on the growth potential in lower-tier markets [2] - Deep collaboration with Tencent and Ctrip enhances the company's customer acquisition and supply chain capabilities, providing a competitive edge [2] Future Growth Prospects - The company is actively expanding into hotel management and vacation services, as well as international markets, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [2] - Projections indicate that the company will achieve net profits of 2.707 billion, 3.369 billion, and 4.082 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing over the years [2]
同程旅行(00780):下沉市场OTA龙头,拥抱大众旅游时代红利
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with an initial coverage date of July 8, 2025 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic OTA market, particularly benefiting from the growth in lower-tier markets and the overall tourism boom. It is backed by major shareholders Tencent and Trip.com, which provide significant advantages in customer acquisition and supply chain resources [4][6][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, formed from the merger of Tongcheng and eLong, is a top-tier one-stop travel service platform in China, successfully ranking among the top three in the OTA industry [17]. Shareholding Structure - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with major shareholders Tencent and Trip.com holding 24.07% and 20.46% respectively, facilitating deep collaboration in business operations [18][21]. Business Breakdown - The core OTA business includes transportation and accommodation bookings, contributing approximately 50% and 30% of revenue respectively. The company is expanding into hotel management and vacation services, enhancing its competitive edge [23]. Financial Performance - The company has shown strong recovery post-pandemic, with revenues of RMB 11.896 billion in 2023 and projected growth to RMB 19.624 billion by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 80.7% and 45.8% respectively [8][31]. Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 27.07 billion in 2025 [6]. OTA Industry Insights - The online travel market in China is projected to exceed RMB 1 trillion in 2024, with a significant increase in online transaction rates, indicating a robust recovery and growth potential in the sector [39][46]. Competitive Landscape - The OTA market is characterized by a high concentration of major players, with Trip.com leading the market share. The competitive dynamics are stable, with companies leveraging unique strengths to capture different market segments [49][52]. Pricing Power - The pricing power of the company is influenced by the concentration of upstream resources, particularly in transportation and accommodation sectors, which affects commission rates and overall profitability [56][59].