支撑评级的要点 同程旅行：下沉市场的OTA 龙头。公司由同程网和艺龙合并而来，是中国领先的一站式旅游服务平 台，目前已成功跻身OTA 行业前三。核心业务为在线旅游平台，为用户提供包括交通、住宿预订及各 种配套增值旅游产品及服务。疫后公司业绩迅速反弹并屡创新高，2024 年公司实现营收173.4 亿元，同 比+45.8%；经调整净利润 27.9 亿元，同比+26.7%。 OTA 行业：受益于旅游市场高景气度，博弈加剧冲击有限。1）规模： 受益于文旅行业高景气度，24 年在线旅游市场规模重回万亿。低线城市当前渗透率低，且旅游花费增 速高，未来为重要增量市场。交通在线预订GMV 占比较高，渗透率超8 成；住宿在线预订渗透率仍处 爬升阶段。 机构：中银证券 研究员：李小民/宋环翔 同程旅行作为国内下沉市场的OTA 龙头企业，有望享受大众旅游的时代红利，背靠腾讯和携程两大股 东，自身流量和供给资源优势显著。首次覆盖，给予买入评级。 2）格局：当前市场为一超多强，携程占据半壁江山，同程，美团，飞猪等平台错位竞争，各立山头。 内容、电商平台加速入局，流量端优势显著，但供应链资源仍显不足，对格局冲击有限。3）议价能 力：交通 ...

Core Insights - The extreme high temperatures in China are becoming a new normal, with temperatures exceeding 40°C expected to be more common this summer [2] - The tourism industry, traditionally busy during the summer months, is experiencing a significant decline in visitor numbers due to extreme heat [3][4] - The changing consumer mindset towards leisure and vacation is leading to a shift away from traditional scenic spots to new entertainment options [11][20] Group 1: Impact of Extreme Heat on Tourism - On July 10, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued over 200 high-temperature warnings, indicating that most regions experienced temperatures above 35°C, with many exceeding 37°C [1] - Theme parks and outdoor attractions are seeing a 30% drop in daily visitor numbers due to extreme heat, with many visitors unable to stay for long periods [4][5] - Even in cooler mountainous areas, visitor numbers are down as the distance from urban centers and the extreme heat deter potential tourists [6][7] Group 2: Changing Consumer Preferences - The traditional view of visiting scenic spots for leisure is shifting; families are now prioritizing comfort and convenience over visiting crowded tourist attractions [9][10] - The core purpose of summer travel for families has evolved to simply finding places for children to expend energy while adults relax, rather than visiting traditional scenic spots [19][20] - New leisure and entertainment options are increasingly attracting visitors away from traditional scenic areas, as they offer more appealing experiences during extreme heat [21][22] Group 3: Strategies for Scenic Areas - Scenic area operators are recognizing that extreme heat is not the sole reason for declining visitor numbers; a lack of innovative attractions is a significant factor [28] - Some scenic areas are adapting by extending operating hours into the evening, adding cooling features, and hosting events to attract visitors despite the heat [30][31][32] - Operators are aware of the competitive landscape, with urban commercial complexes increasingly drawing visitors away from traditional scenic spots [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with an initial coverage date of July 8, 2025 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic OTA market, particularly benefiting from the growth in lower-tier markets and the overall tourism boom. It is backed by major shareholders Tencent and Trip.com, which provide significant advantages in customer acquisition and supply chain resources [4][6][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, formed from the merger of Tongcheng and eLong, is a top-tier one-stop travel service platform in China, successfully ranking among the top three in the OTA industry [17]. Shareholding Structure - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with major shareholders Tencent and Trip.com holding 24.07% and 20.46% respectively, facilitating deep collaboration in business operations [18][21]. Business Breakdown - The core OTA business includes transportation and accommodation bookings, contributing approximately 50% and 30% of revenue respectively. The company is expanding into hotel management and vacation services, enhancing its competitive edge [23]. Financial Performance - The company has shown strong recovery post-pandemic, with revenues of RMB 11.896 billion in 2023 and projected growth to RMB 19.624 billion by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 80.7% and 45.8% respectively [8][31]. Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 27.07 billion in 2025 [6]. OTA Industry Insights - The online travel market in China is projected to exceed RMB 1 trillion in 2024, with a significant increase in online transaction rates, indicating a robust recovery and growth potential in the sector [39][46]. Competitive Landscape - The OTA market is characterized by a high concentration of major players, with Trip.com leading the market share. The competitive dynamics are stable, with companies leveraging unique strengths to capture different market segments [49][52]. Pricing Power - The pricing power of the company is influenced by the concentration of upstream resources, particularly in transportation and accommodation sectors, which affects commission rates and overall profitability [56][59].

新华社上海5月7日电（记者陈爱平）这个"五一"假期，我国旅游消费热度再创新高。 旅游消费火热 "五一"假期 全国国内出游3.14亿人次 同比增长6.4% 国内游客出游总花费1802.69亿元 同比增长8.0% 上海共接待游客超1650万人次 同比增长1.61% 实现旅游消费201.1亿元 同比增长10.2% (1) 新关注 多地旅游人次和旅游消费明显增长。"五一"假期，上海共接待游客1650.06万人次，同比增长 1.61%，游客旅游消费201.1亿元，同比增长10.2%。重庆接待国内游客1858.31万人次，同比增长 10.4%，国内游客花费151.71亿元，同比增长16.3%。新疆累计接待游客919.55万人次，同比增长 7.43%，游客花费89.24亿元，同比增长10.47%。 出行半径扩张 经文化和旅游部数据中心测算，假期5天，全国国内出游3.14亿人次，同比增长6.4%；国内游客出 游总花费1802.69亿元，同比增长8.0%。 中国旅游研究院测算 56.6%的游客在假期首日选择跨省市旅游 出游半径超过了500公里 11.1%的游客出游半径超过1000公里 1 新关注 "五一"假期，人们出行半径较清 ...