自三季度以来，"反内卷"政策带动商品市场看多情绪升温，虽然钢材行业尚未出台具体政策，但不锈钢 期货估值偏低，叠加钢厂减产消息较多，盘面明显反弹，主力合约突破13300元/吨大关。8月中旬，随 着市场看多情绪降温，不锈钢期货价格快速下行。进入9月，基本面韧性较强叠加原料价格上涨、下游 需求回暖等因素，不锈钢期货价格重回上行通道。 原料价格坚挺 基本面仍存韧性 从短期来看，在供需平稳的情况下，不锈钢期货价格或维持"下有底、上有顶"的区间震荡态势，中期可 以尝试在2512合约反弹后轻仓做空。 镍矿方面，虽然近期我国镍矿进口量季节性增加，港口库存明显回升，但菲律宾矿山挺价意愿较强，开 盘价较高。受近期镍矿事故频发影响，印尼9月第二期镍矿内贸基准价上涨0.2~0.3美元/吨，升水维持24 美元/吨不变。 镍铁方面，近期国内市场博弈加剧，虽然报价区间下滑至950~960元/镍点，但跌幅有限。根据Mysteel 数据，本周国内高镍铁出厂价报955元/镍点，到厂价报960元/镍点；印尼高镍铁舱底含税价报960元/镍 点，印尼镍铁FOB价报116美元/镍点。 铬矿方面，近期主流品种价格平稳。根据Mysteel数据，截至9月22 ...

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Since the third quarter, the "anti-involution" policy has boosted bullish sentiment in the commodity market, leading to a significant rebound in stainless steel futures, with the main contract breaking through 13,300 yuan/ton [1] - In mid-August, stainless steel futures prices quickly declined as market bullish sentiment cooled, but by September, prices returned to an upward trend due to strong fundamentals and rising raw material prices [1] Group 2: Raw Material Prices - Nickel ore prices remain firm despite a seasonal increase in imports and a rise in port inventories, with domestic prices influenced by strong pricing intentions from Philippine mines [2] - The domestic market for nickel iron has seen increased competition, with prices stabilizing around 950-960 yuan/nickel point, while Indonesian nickel iron prices are reported at 960 yuan/nickel point [2] - Chrome ore prices have remained stable, with current prices for South African chrome concentrate at approximately 57 yuan/ton, while future prices have increased to 284 USD/ton due to rising shipping costs [2] Group 3: Downstream Demand and Production - The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" has led to a slight improvement in downstream demand for stainless steel, with August apparent consumption at 2.7529 million tons, a 4.16% month-on-month increase [4] - Social inventory of stainless steel has seen a "four consecutive declines" trend, with a 2.51% decrease to 987,100 tons as of September 18 [4] - Cold-rolled stainless steel production has rebounded, with July production at 1.4625 million tons and August at 1.4829 million tons, while September production is expected to reach 1.5156 million tons [4] Group 4: Price Outlook and Trading Strategy - In the short term, stainless steel futures are expected to continue a range-bound trading pattern, with 13,300 yuan/ton as the upper resistance and 12,750 yuan/ton as the lower support [5] - Factors such as rising raw material prices and steel mills' pricing intentions provide strong support for prices, while limited demand growth may hinder sustained price increases [5]