Group 1: Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for stainless steel futures indicates a range-bound fluctuation with a support level at 12,750 yuan/ton and a resistance level at 13,300 yuan/ton, driven by strong hedging pressure [1][5] - The market sentiment has been influenced by the "anti-involution" policy, leading to a rebound in stainless steel futures prices, which have recently surpassed the 13,300 yuan/ton mark [1] Group 2: Raw Material Prices - Nickel ore prices remain firm despite an increase in imports and port inventories, with domestic nickel pig iron prices showing limited decline [2] - The price of chromium ore has remained stable, while chromium iron prices have seen a slight increase, indicating a strong market sentiment among producers [2] Group 3: Downstream Demand - Downstream demand for stainless steel has shown improvement with a 4.16% month-on-month increase in apparent consumption in August, although levels remain below expectations [4] - Social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for four consecutive weeks, but the rate of decline is slowing, indicating a tightening supply situation [4] Group 4: Production Costs - The cash cost of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel has risen to approximately 12,900 yuan/ton, reflecting an upward shift in cost structure [3]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Since the third quarter, the "anti-involution" policy has boosted bullish sentiment in the commodity market, leading to a significant rebound in stainless steel futures, with the main contract breaking through 13,300 yuan/ton [1] - In mid-August, stainless steel futures prices quickly declined as market bullish sentiment cooled, but by September, prices returned to an upward trend due to strong fundamentals and rising raw material prices [1] Group 2: Raw Material Prices - Nickel ore prices remain firm despite a seasonal increase in imports and a rise in port inventories, with domestic prices influenced by strong pricing intentions from Philippine mines [2] - The domestic market for nickel iron has seen increased competition, with prices stabilizing around 950-960 yuan/nickel point, while Indonesian nickel iron prices are reported at 960 yuan/nickel point [2] - Chrome ore prices have remained stable, with current prices for South African chrome concentrate at approximately 57 yuan/ton, while future prices have increased to 284 USD/ton due to rising shipping costs [2] Group 3: Downstream Demand and Production - The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" has led to a slight improvement in downstream demand for stainless steel, with August apparent consumption at 2.7529 million tons, a 4.16% month-on-month increase [4] - Social inventory of stainless steel has seen a "four consecutive declines" trend, with a 2.51% decrease to 987,100 tons as of September 18 [4] - Cold-rolled stainless steel production has rebounded, with July production at 1.4625 million tons and August at 1.4829 million tons, while September production is expected to reach 1.5156 million tons [4] Group 4: Price Outlook and Trading Strategy - In the short term, stainless steel futures are expected to continue a range-bound trading pattern, with 13,300 yuan/ton as the upper resistance and 12,750 yuan/ton as the lower support [5] - Factors such as rising raw material prices and steel mills' pricing intentions provide strong support for prices, while limited demand growth may hinder sustained price increases [5]