1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel are weak, and both are continuing to find their bottoms. The nickel market is in a situation of "tightening in the long - term, but loose in the short - term" due to the new Indonesian policy, and stainless steel is affected by factors such as real - estate downturn and slowdown in home appliance exports [1][3]. - It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation, but attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply, which may cause a rebound in nickel prices. Stainless steel prices are also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation due to low demand, inventory accumulation, and a downward shift in cost centers [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 119,300 yuan/ton and closed at 118,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.62% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 98,248 (+28,336) lots, and the open interest was 116,829 (1,929) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation pattern. The new Indonesian policy on nickel smelter investment restrictions may tighten capacity expansion in the long - term, but the short - term production capacity of wet - process intermediate products is still being released. The weak stainless - steel consumption on the demand side leads to insufficient rebound power in the Shanghai nickel market [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market is calm, and prices are stable. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area is affected by typhoons, and the shipping efficiency is delayed. The price of downstream nickel - iron is falling, and iron plants have a lower psychological price for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November is expected to be lowered by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. After the Shanghai nickel price fell below 120,000 yuan, the spot market is more watchful, and trading is light. The spot premiums of various brands have not changed. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 31,824 (-468) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,114 (-1,194) tons [2]. Strategy - It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. Attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply, which may cause a rebound in nickel prices [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,520 yuan/ton and closed at 12,485 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 85,852 (-22,462) lots, and the open interest was 137,838 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the decline in Shanghai nickel prices, the contract continued its weak oscillation. Although domestic steel mills' losses are increasing, the inertia of capacity release remains, and the demand side is still sluggish due to factors such as the real - estate downturn and slowdown in home appliance exports. Overall, stainless steel is still in a bottom - grinding state [3]. - **Spot**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and spot trading is sluggish. Many traders are selling at low prices to recover funds, and the daily quotes continue to decline slightly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,825 (-25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 335 to 685 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 909.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - It is expected that stainless - steel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) is witnessing significant procurement activities, with the Shanghai trading group actively engaging in large-scale purchases [1] - Major retail procurement alliance members, including Bailian Group and Bright Food Group, have signed contracts with suppliers from various regions, covering multiple sectors such as food, home goods, beauty, and medical devices [1] - China Baowu Steel Group has also made substantial procurement agreements with 13 global suppliers, focusing on advanced low-carbon metallurgical equipment and high-quality raw materials [1][2] Group 1 - The Shanghai trading group has achieved procurement intentions for 54 projects, with 25 projects signed on-site during the expo [1] - The procurement products represent advanced manufacturing levels in the global low-carbon metallurgy sector, aimed at upgrading processes and optimizing product structures for Baowu's steel production [2] - The procurement includes a range of resources such as iron ore, chromium ore, manganese, nickel, coal, and various metal materials [1][2] Group 2 - Multiple districts in Shanghai are also signing key industrial and benchmark projects during the expo [3]

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) has facilitated significant procurement agreements among major retail purchasing alliances in Shanghai, highlighting the event's role in enhancing international trade relationships [1] Group 1: Procurement Agreements - The Shanghai Purchasing Alliance, led by Bailian Group, has signed procurement agreements with suppliers and brand representatives from the Americas, Europe, Oceania, and Asia, covering various sectors including food, home goods, beauty, personal care, and medical devices [1] - A total of 54 procurement projects have been initiated by the Shanghai Purchasing Alliance members since the start of the eighth CIIE, with 25 projects signed on-site during the event [1] Group 2: Steel Industry Participation - China Baowu Steel Group, the world's largest steel company, has also engaged in procurement activities at the CIIE, signing new cooperation agreements with 13 global suppliers [1] - The procurement scope for Baowu includes advanced low-carbon metallurgical equipment, high-quality raw materials such as iron ore, chromium ore, manganese ore, ferronickel, coal, and various metal materials [1]

Core Insights - China Baowu Steel Group has signed procurement agreements with over 10 global suppliers at the 8th China International Import Expo, focusing on high-quality raw materials and metallurgical equipment for upgrading its steel production lines [1][2] Group 1: Procurement Agreements - The procurement agreements include partnerships with renowned companies such as Primetals Technologies, Voestalpine DMS, GFM, and others, covering a range of resources including iron ore, chrome ore, manganese ore, and nickel iron [1] - These agreements aim to enhance the quality and efficiency of Baowu's steel production, contributing to the company's goal of providing high-end, green products to global customers [1] Group 2: Strategic Goals - Baowu aims to become a world-class enterprise by focusing on green and intelligent steel production, emphasizing open collaboration and value sharing with global partners [2] - The company is committed to optimizing its international layout and enhancing its global resource allocation capabilities, thereby creating new opportunities for products, technologies, and services [2] Group 3: Exhibition Participation - As one of the first 14 key purchasers, Baowu participated in the "Central Enterprise Purchasing Group" exhibition, showcasing its comprehensive global supply chain and diverse procurement needs [2] - The company presented its "1+3+2" industrial system, which includes steel manufacturing, green resources, smart services, advanced materials, industrial real estate, and financial services [2]

Core Viewpoint - The high carbon ferrochrome market is currently influenced by both "weak reality" and "weak expectations," leading to a lack of market confidence, although short-term attention is needed on raw material adjustments, downstream stainless steel market changes, and effective demand release [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The current market price for high carbon ferrochrome is around 8100-8300 CNY per 50 base tons, reflecting a weak and cautious market outlook [2] - Terminal demand remains sluggish, with the stainless steel market continuing to operate weakly, which has intensified negative sentiment towards ferrochrome [2] - Recent trading activity in the high carbon ferrochrome market has been lackluster, with strong price-cutting sentiment towards chrome ore, although a decline in chrome ore prices has created some bargaining pressure in the ferrochrome market [2] Group 2: Chrome Ore Market - The latest price for South African chrome concentrate (40-42% grade) at Tianjin Port is reported at 282 USD per ton, remaining stable compared to previous periods [4] - A detailed price table for chrome ore indicates various grades and their corresponding prices, with South African block ore (36%-38% grade) priced at 52-54 CNY per ton and South African concentrate (42%-44% grade) priced at 300-310 USD per ton [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is in a pattern of high inventory and oversupply, with nickel prices expected to remain in low - level oscillations. A significant reduction in Philippine nickel ore supply in the fourth quarter may lead to a nickel price rebound [1][2]. - The stainless - steel market shows weak demand recovery and loose cost support, and stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,860 yuan/ton and closed at 120,030 yuan/ton, a - 0.24% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 123,448 (+577) lots, and the open interest was 115,164 (-3296) lots. The price fluctuated within a range of about 1,390 yuan, with a significant narrowing compared to previous days. The SHFE nickel inventory increased by 1,977 tons to 32,929 tons, and the LME nickel inventory, although unchanged at 252,750 tons, had a cumulative increase of 20,300 tons in the past month and an 8.79% year - on - year increase [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has been calm with stable prices. There is a gap between supply and demand, and market sentiment is cautious. In the Philippines, increased rainfall and the typhoon "Seagull" may cause delays in shipping. Downstream nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and iron plants are reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 27 [1][2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Due to the large price drop, spot trading was good, and the spot premium of each brand remained stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed to 2,800 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly use range - bound operations. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 5, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract opened at 12,555 yuan/ton and closed at 12,535 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 90,380 (-21,042) lots, and the open interest was 74,412 (-4,171) lots. Affected by Shanghai nickel and the black - metal sector, the price showed a weak oscillation, with a fluctuation range of about 100 yuan, further narrowing from the previous day [2][3]. - **Spot**: Market pessimism intensified, spot prices were generally lowered, but trading remained weak. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,850 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,900 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 315 - 615 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 919.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first nine months of 2025, attributed to challenging market conditions in the steel industry, including low steel prices and weak downstream demand [6][8]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 40.893 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.42% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 114 million yuan, down 16.37% year-on-year [6]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses increased by 159 million yuan compared to the previous year, indicating stable performance in core business operations [6]. Business Operations - The company maintained a strong focus on resource control and business innovation, with significant improvements in the performance of key commodities [7]. - The operating volumes for various commodities included approximately 14.72 million tons of iron ore, 1.54 million tons of coal, and 830,000 tons of coke [7]. - Steel business operations included approximately 7.88 million tons of steel, with specific volumes for rebar, hot-rolled sheets, and cold-rolled sheets detailed [7]. Industry Outlook - The steel industry is expected to face continued challenges in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to a weak real estate market, seasonal demand decline, and global trade tensions [8]. - The company plans to implement strategies focused on growth, innovation, and risk management to navigate the adverse market conditions [8]. Significant Events - The company issued 1.3 billion yuan in bonds with a coupon rate of 2.47% on July 1, 2025 [9]. - A change in the accounting firm was approved, with the new firm being Lixin Certified Public Accountants for the 2025 fiscal year [9]. - The company approved the issuance of up to 2 billion yuan in short-term financing notes and medium-term notes [10]. Asset Impairment - The company reported a total of 99.27 million yuan in asset impairment provisions for the first nine months of 2025, impacting the profit total by 92.30 million yuan [15][19]. - Specific provisions included 18.03 million yuan for bad debts and 81.23 million yuan for inventory write-downs [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Wukuang Development, reported a steady performance in the first nine months of 2025, achieving a revenue of 40.893 billion yuan and a net profit of 114 million yuan, despite facing a challenging industry environment [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, Wukuang Development achieved an operating income of 40.893 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 114 million yuan [1] - The company reported significant improvements in operating performance across its main business segments [1] Group 2: Business Segments - In the raw materials segment, the company enhanced its upstream resource control capabilities, achieving a total iron ore operating volume of approximately 14.72 million tons, coal operating volume of about 1.54 million tons, and other mineral operating volumes including manganese, chromium, and their alloys [1] - The steel business optimized its structure, with a total steel operating volume of approximately 7.88 million tons and a manufacturing terminal operating volume of about 2.42 million tons [1] Group 3: Supply Chain and Logistics - The supply chain business strengthened internal and external resource collaboration, with logistics operations processing approximately 910,000 tons and a throughput of about 9.63 million tons [2] - The company reported a total service volume of approximately 112.45 million tons in logistics and achieved a bidding amount of about 11.8 billion yuan [2] Group 4: Strategic Focus - Wukuang Development emphasized its commitment to "stabilizing growth, strengthening industries, promoting innovation, advancing reforms, preventing risks, ensuring safety, and enhancing party building" while maintaining a "low inventory, high turnover" strategy [2] - The company aims to explore market opportunities, enhance business capabilities, and accelerate transformation and upgrading to ensure stable operations amid industry challenges [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of nickel prices is driven by the general rise in commodities. The overall nickel market shows an oversupply situation in the current and next years. The nickel price is expected to continue to move within a range, and the stainless - steel price has limited upward space due to weak demand expectations [4][5][6]. - The new energy vehicle market shows structural growth, with the US electrification process slowing down and European subsidies stimulating sales. The ternary material in the nickel sulfate market is growing, but the precursor supply is tight [61][66][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1价差追踪与库存 - Global nickel inventory is at a high level. The global visible inventory reaches 300,000 tons, with LME inventory at 250,000 tons remaining basically flat this week, SHFE inventory at 36,000 tons with an increase in domestic delivery volume, and SMM's six - location social inventory at 48,800 tons with a slight increase [14]. - Stainless - steel social inventory is at a low level and remains flat [19]. 3.2基本面分析 3.2.1镍 - **Supply**: SMM statistics show that the cumulative refined nickel production from January to September increased by 24% year - on - year to 3 million tons. It is expected that the total domestic refined nickel production in October will remain high at 36,300 tons, a slight decrease of 200 tons month - on - month. From January to August 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 36,800 tons, compared with a net export of 15,000 tons in the same period last year. The domestic refined nickel supply from January to August 2025 was 3 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 55% [27]. - **Demand**: The cumulative pure nickel consumption from January to September increased by 1% year - on - year to 2.16 million tons. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel decreased slightly month - on - month in September but remained above the boom - bust line, mainly relying on the stainless - steel PMI remaining at 50. The stainless - steel consumption in October fell short of expectations, which may affect the overall nickel consumption [30]. - **Trading Logic and Strategy**: The supply of pure nickel is abundant, and the demand is weak, limiting the upward space. The nickel ore price is stable, providing cost support. The LME nickel inventory increased slightly this week, remaining above 250,000 tons. The macro sentiment remains neutral, and the power to drive nickel out of the shock range is insufficient. The nickel price will continue to move within the range. For single - side trading, it is expected to be in a wide - range shock; for options, sell the wide - straddle option combination [6]. 3.2.2不锈钢 - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: The domestic nickel ore port inventory has peaked and declined due to the start of the rainy season in the Philippines. The Indonesian domestic trade premium remains stable, and the second - round benchmark price in October was slightly raised, with the full price remaining firm [32]. - **NPI**: The supply of NPI increases, and the price is under pressure. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia from January to September shows an increasing trend, and the high - nickel iron price is under pressure due to factors such as market supply and demand [33]. - **Chromium Series**: The chromium ore price has been weakening for two consecutive weeks. The long - term contract procurement price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in October 2025 increased by 200 yuan month - on - month [39]. - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: There is a cost inversion in cold - rolled stainless steel. The cost of cold - rolled stainless steel remains high, while the market price is relatively low, resulting in cost inversion [44]. - **Supply**: It is expected that the combined stainless - steel crude steel production of China and India from January to September was 33.45 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the production in both countries increased month - on - month, but there may be production cuts due to cost inversion. From January to September 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.138 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%, and the total exports were 3.783 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The net export volume was 2.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [52]. - **Demand**: The shipbuilding industry has the highest growth rate, providing support for stainless - steel demand. The production of shipbuilding plates from January to September increased by 28% year - on - year, while the growth rates in other terminal fields are not optimistic [54]. - **Trading Logic and Strategy**: For arbitrage, temporarily wait and see. For single - side trading, sell on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure at the 13,000 level [9][10]. 3.2.3新能源汽车 - **Domestic Market**: According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in September was 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 49.7%. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. The production of power cells follows the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.6% to 861.04 GWh from January to September, and a month - on - month increase of 9.1% in October [61]. - **International Market**: CleanTechnica statistics show that the cumulative sales volume of global new energy vehicles from January to August 2025 increased by 23.5% year - on - year to 12.371 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe from January to August 2025 increased by 27.4% year - on - year to 2.347 million, while the cumulative sales volume in the US from January to August 2025 increased by 8.1% year - on - year to 1.063 million. The US cancelled the IRA new energy vehicle subsidy on October 1, resulting in a small peak in sales in advance. Most European countries still have subsidies for new energy vehicles, stimulating sales growth this year. China's cumulative new energy vehicle exports from January to September 2025 were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [66]. 3.2.4硫酸镍 - **Market**: The cumulative production of nickel sulfate in China from January to September decreased by 13.6% year - on - year to 246,000 tons. The cumulative production of ternary precursors from January to September decreased by 13% year - on - year to 540,000 tons, while the cumulative production of ternary cathode materials from January to September increased by 12% year - on - year to 569,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but the growth of precursor production was less than expected due to the sharp increase in cobalt prices [68]. - **Raw Materials**: The production of Indonesian MHP from January to September increased by 53% year - on - year to 325,000 tons, while the production of Indonesian high - grade nickel matte from January to September decreased by 34% year - on - year to 138,000 tons. This year, the sulfur price has risen significantly, increasing the cost of hydrometallurgy, and the MHP cost has increased, with the price remaining firm [72]. 3.2.5纯镍 - The large increase in pure nickel imports leads to an obvious domestic surplus situation [73].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The nickel market has high inventories and an oversupplied pattern, so nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. The stainless - steel market has weak downstream demand growth, increasing inventories, and weakening cost support, so it is expected to remain in range - bound oscillations [3][5]. Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On October 23, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,100 yuan/ton and closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, a 0.19% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 93,921 (+20,070) lots, and the open interest was 127,005 (+5,694) lots. The main contract showed a volatile pattern of opening low and closing high, with a fluctuation range of only 0.44%. Supported by the expectation of loose liquidity and strong new - energy demand, along with the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector, the price oscillated upward [1]. Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and prices are stable. There is a certain price difference between supply and demand in the domestic market. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area is about to enter the rainy season, and shipments are coming to an end. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Indonesian factories have recently been purchasing raw materials [2]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of each brand increased slightly. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,881 (-72) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 250,854 (-24) tons [2]. Strategy - Due to high inventories and oversupply, it is expected that nickel prices will remain in low - level oscillations. The strategy is mainly range - bound operations for the single - side, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 4: Stainless - Steel Market Analysis Futures - On October 23, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,700 yuan/ton and closed at 12,765 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,385 (+52,175) lots, and the open interest was 166,411 (-4,171) lots. Driven by the strong nickel price, the main contract showed a volatile and strong trend with increasing volume and price, but there was a short - term oversold rebound. The continuous reduction of open interest in the main contract for 5 days reflects strong risk - aversion sentiment among funds, and the market doubts the sustainability of the rebound [3]. Spot - The driving effect of futures on spot is not obvious, and actual trading remains light. Spot prices remain low. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market is 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 335 - 635 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 934.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - Due to weak downstream demand growth, increasing inventories, and weakening cost support, stainless steel is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].