Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Kexin Electromechanical Co., Ltd. expects a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, with estimates between 50 million to 55 million yuan, representing a decrease of 43.29% to 48.44% compared to the same period last year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a decrease in operating revenue of approximately 12.3 million yuan, or about 17%, compared to the previous year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to drop significantly, with a forecasted range of 46.26 million to 51.26 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 44.93% to 50.30% year-on-year [1][2]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed total revenue of 328 million yuan, an increase of 18.96% year-on-year, but the net profit for the second quarter is expected to fall sharply to between 1.72 million and 6.72 million yuan, indicating a quarter-on-quarter decline of 86% to 96% [3]. Operational Challenges - The decline in revenue is attributed to reduced output due to external technical input delays affecting production schedules, despite having good order volumes [2]. - Changes in product structure, with more complex and larger equipment being delivered, have increased manufacturing time and costs, contributing to the overall decline in gross profit by approximately 4 million yuan [2]. - The company faces increased risks related to accounts receivable, particularly in the photovoltaic and BDO project equipment sectors, due to slower project construction and operation by clients [2]. Business Segments - Kexin Electromechanical is a key player in the high-end process equipment manufacturing sector, with a revenue share of 99.03% from this segment as of the 2024 annual report [2]. - The issues with accounts receivable in the renewable energy business segment highlight the volatility risks emerging in this area [2].

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 50 million to 55 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 43.29% to 48.44% compared to 96.9774 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is estimated to be around 46.26 million to 51.26 million yuan, a decrease of 44.93% to 50.30% from 93.0878 million yuan in the previous year [1] Reasons for Performance Change - The primary reason for the decline in performance is a reduction in output, which is attributed to external technical input delays affecting production scheduling despite good order conditions [1] - Changes in the product structure delivered to customers, with an increase in larger equipment and tower devices, have led to longer manufacturing times and increased workload, contributing to a decrease in gross profit by approximately 40 million yuan [2] - Slower collection of payments and longer aging of accounts receivable have increased risks, resulting in a higher provision for credit impairment compared to the same period last year [2]

Group 1 - The company is a leading enterprise in the domestic cryogenic technology field, achieving a dual-driven development model of "equipment manufacturing + gas operation" [1] - The core products in the equipment manufacturing segment include natural gas liquefaction devices and large air separation units, with the plate-fin heat exchangers being a domestic leader and exported to 53 countries and regions [1] - The company has diversified its operations by investing in the sales of natural gas, industrial gases, and rare gases, enhancing its overall competitiveness [1] Group 2 - Rising oil prices have led to increased upstream investment, with the economic viability of energy and chemical industries improving, particularly in coal chemical and synthetic gas sectors [2] - Fixed asset investment in the domestic petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries increased by 18.8% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [2] - The company signed new orders worth approximately 1.8 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of over 25%, with overseas orders also showing significant growth [2] Group 3 - The gas operation segment is expanding, with the company investing in industrial and rare gases, which are expected to become new revenue growth sources as projects reach production capacity [3] - A joint venture with Korea's Posco Holdings marks the company's first step in both equipment and operation overseas, providing valuable experience for future expansions [3] - The profit margin for industrial gas operations is relatively high, and as the business expands, the company's profitability is expected to improve [3] Group 4 - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.23 billion, 3.86 billion, and 4.72 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.8%, 19.7%, and 22.2% respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 400 million, 510 million, and 630 million yuan during the same period, with significant growth in 2025 [4] - The company is assigned a target price of 20.9 yuan based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025, indicating a potential upside of approximately 39% from the current stock price [4]

华创证券研究所 证 券 研 究 报 告 中泰股份（300435）深度研究报告 强推（首次） 深冷技术专家，设备出海+气体运营打开成长 空间 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 2,717 | 3,228 | 3,863 | 4,720 | | 同比增速(%) | -10.9% | 18.8% | 19.7% | 22.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | -78 | 403 | 506 | 628 | | 同比增速(%) | -122.3% | 616.3% | 25.8% | 24.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | -0.20 | 1.04 | 1.31 | 1.63 | | 市盈率(倍) | -74 | 14 | 11 | 9 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 7 月 4 日收盘价 公司研究 专用设备 2025 年 07 ...

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