机构：国证国际 研究员：王婷 我们首次覆盖连连数字，看好公司在跨境支付领域的商户积累、品牌心智和份额提升潜力。此外，公司 已获VATP 牌照，未来在虚拟资产交易及稳定币领域或有业务机会。SOTP 目标价17.3 港元，较最新收 盘价潜在涨幅40%，首予买入。 财务预测：我们预计2025 年整体TPV 同比增27%，其中全球支付/境内支付同比增45%/25%，全球支付 受益于服务贸易客户拓展、海外区域拓展等，境内支付受益于企业用户的数字化转型、商户数量增长 等。我们预计2025 年数字支付收入同比增26%，全球支付及境内支付的费率维持稳定。预计2025 年总 收入同比增24%至16.3 亿元，预计毛利率52%，同比稳定。考虑出售部分连通股权确认16 亿元现金及应 占连通公司亏损，预计2025 年归母净利润17.4 亿元。 估值：我们采用SOTP 估值，目标价17.3 港元，包括：1）主营业务：考虑公司"港股跨境支付第一 股"地位、市场份额第一梯队、全球牌照壁垒及未来潜在的稳定币相关业务机会，我们给予10 倍2025 年 市销率，贡献目标价16.0 港元；2）连通公司股权价值：我们参考出售连通交易的估值（75 亿 ...

SDICSI 2025 年 07 月 24 日 连连数字(2598.HK) 2B 数字支付服务商，看好份额提升前景 我们首次覆盖连连数字，看好公司在跨境支付领域的商户积累、品牌心智和份额 提升潜力。此外，公司已获 VATP 牌照，未来在虚拟资产交易及稳定币领域或有 业务机会。SOTP 目标价 17.3 港元，较最新收盘价潜在涨幅 40%，首予买入。 报告摘要 第一梯队 2B 数字支付服务商：公司数字支付业务分为，1）全球支付：主要服务 跨境电商卖家，帮助其高效将境外各电商平台销售收款并汇回境内。2）境内支付： 服务企业客户的收单、收付款、聚合支付等。2024 年公司 TPV（交易额）为 3.3 万 亿元，其中全球/境内支付 TPV 为 2,815 亿元/3.0 万亿元，同比增 63%/ 65%，占比 9%/91%。财务表现看，2024 年总收入 13.1 亿元，同比增 28%，全球支付贡献数字 支付/总收入的 70%/61%，全球支付净利润 1.4 亿元，境内支付尚未盈利。从行业 竞争看，跨境支付服务商行业份额相对分散，其他主要玩家包括 Payoneer（美国公 司 PAYO.US）、PingPong、空中云 ...

Group 1 - The central bank supports the pilot program in Fujian for providing payment services to foreign personnel, aiming to enhance the payment service level for foreign visitors [1] - The initiative balances service enhancement with risk control, implementing facilitation measures [1] - The central bank continues to promote online appointment for account opening and guides banks to increase the renovation of ATMs [1] Group 2 - The program includes enabling foreign bank card holders to withdraw RMB cash and accelerating the establishment of foreign currency exchange points and self-service exchange machines in key locations [1] - The goal is to improve the foreign currency exchange service level [1]

Core Viewpoint - Company Fuyou Payment has submitted its third IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after previous attempts failed, highlighting ongoing challenges in profitability and compliance issues in its pursuit of capital market entry [2][3][6]. Group 1: Company Background - Fuyou Payment, established in 2011 and headquartered in Shanghai, holds various payment licenses in mainland China, Hong Kong, and the United States, focusing on commercial, financial, and cross-border digital payment services [6]. - The company has processed over 545 billion payment transactions, with a total payment volume (TPV) of 15.1 trillion RMB as of the end of 2024 [10]. Group 2: IPO Attempts - Fuyou Payment has previously attempted to list on the A-share market in 2018 and 2021 but was unable to proceed, leading to the termination of related agreements [6]. - After shifting focus to the Hong Kong market, the company submitted its IPO applications on April 30 and November 8, 2024, both of which ultimately expired [6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was approximately 1.142 billion RMB, 1.506 billion RMB, and 1.634 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 19.6% [8]. - However, net profits for the same years were 71.17 million RMB, 92.98 million RMB, and 84.43 million RMB, indicating a decline in profit for 2024 compared to the previous year [8]. Group 4: Market Position - In 2024, Fuyou Payment ranked eighth among independent digital payment service providers in China, holding a market share of 0.8%, with no change in market share from 2023 [10]. - The overall digital payment service market in China is projected to reach a TPV of 268.6 trillion RMB in 2024, with the top three non-independent providers holding a combined market share of 75.6% [8][10]. Group 5: Compliance Challenges - Fuyou Payment has faced multiple regulatory penalties since its inception, including significant fines for compliance violations related to payment services and foreign exchange regulations [12]. - The company has been under pressure to enhance compliance and improve service quality to navigate the competitive landscape and regulatory environment [13].

Core Viewpoint - LianLian Digital has achieved significant financial improvement by leveraging both cross-border and domestic payment businesses, successfully turning losses into profits amid a challenging regulatory and competitive landscape [1][2]. Financial Performance - LianLian Digital reported a net profit of RMB 78.7 million in its first annual report post-IPO, a substantial recovery from a loss of RMB 403 million the previous year, indicating strong market expectations for future growth [2]. - The total payment volume (TPV) exceeded RMB 3.3 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 64.7%, showcasing robust growth in both cross-border and domestic payment sectors [2][6]. - The company's total revenue reached RMB 13.15 billion, a year-on-year growth of 27.9%, with gross profit increasing to RMB 6.83 billion, up 18.2% from the previous year [6]. Business Strategy and Growth - LianLian Digital's CEO highlighted 2024 as a pivotal year, focusing on global license expansion, compliance capabilities, and product service enhancement to drive further growth [2][3]. - The company has successfully established a global payment license network, holding 65 licenses, including a virtual asset trading platform license from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, which strengthens its competitive position [10]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - LianLian Digital is recognized as the only Chinese digital payment provider with money transfer licenses in all U.S. states, enhancing its operational capabilities in the U.S. market [9]. - The company’s cross-border payment business generated RMB 8.08 billion in revenue, with a gross margin of 72%, positioning it among the top tier globally [6][10]. - The domestic payment business also saw explosive growth, with revenue reaching RMB 3.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57.1%, and TPV hitting RMB 30 trillion, up 64.9% [6]. R&D and Innovation - In 2024, LianLian Digital's R&D expenses amounted to RMB 320 million, reflecting an 18.2% increase, driven by an expanded R&D team and increased investment in technological innovation [4]. - The company is leveraging advanced technologies such as big data, AI, cloud computing, and blockchain to enhance its core technology and infrastructure [4]. Industry Context - The cross-border e-commerce sector in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a reported 10.8% increase in cross-border e-commerce imports and exports, creating substantial demand for cross-border payment solutions [8]. - The regulatory environment and market dynamics are pushing payment institutions to adapt, with LianLian Digital's compliance and strategic positioning allowing it to thrive in this competitive landscape [5][8].