中金主要观点如下： 1H25毛利润同比+25%至4.1亿元、毛利率保持52%高位，其中全球支付毛利率72.7%、境内支付19.9%， 增值服务-7ppt至19.8%、主因毛利润率较低的虚拟卡业务增长、该行预计后续将持续改善。 主营业务盈利持续提升、处置连通股权确认可观收益 中金发布研报称，考虑连连数字(02598)TPV高增，上调25年/26年收入2%/2%至16.5/20.2亿元;维持调整 后利润不变。当前交易于7x/6x25/26e P/S;考虑市场情绪改善上调目标价3.3%至15.8港币，对应9x/8x P/S 及39%上行空间;维持跑赢行业评级。 1H25业绩符合该行预期 连连数字1H25营业收入同比+27%至7.8亿元，净利润扭亏为盈至15.1亿元(vs.1H24净亏损3.5亿元)，其中 由于出售连通部分股权而实现的相关收益超16亿元;调整后的经常性经营利润0.6亿元;业绩符合该行预 期。 境外支付流水TPV高增、费率受业务结构影响下滑，收入强劲 1H25TPV同比+32%至2.1万亿元、高于收入增速的27%，其中：1)全球支付TPV同比+94%至1,985亿元， 其中费率较低的服务贸易和B2B领域 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about its potential in the cross-border payment sector, highlighting its merchant accumulation, brand recognition, and market share growth potential, with a target price of HKD 17.3, indicating a potential upside of 40% from the latest closing price [1] Group 1: Business Overview - The company's digital payment business is divided into global payments, primarily serving cross-border e-commerce sellers, and domestic payments, catering to enterprise clients [1] - For 2024, the company's total payment volume (TPV) is projected to reach CNY 3.3 trillion, with global and domestic payment TPV expected to be CNY 281.5 billion and CNY 3.0 trillion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 63% and 65% [1] - Total revenue for 2024 is forecasted at CNY 1.31 billion, a 28% increase year-on-year, with global payments contributing 70% to digital payment revenue [1] Group 2: Market Position and Competition - The cross-border payment service market is relatively fragmented, with key competitors including Payoneer, PingPong, and others [1] - The company's global payment TPV is expected to account for 13.1% of China's cross-border e-commerce export value in 2024, up from 9.4% in 2023 [1] Group 3: Future Opportunities - The company has obtained a Virtual Asset Trading Platform (VATP) license, positioning it for future opportunities in virtual asset trading and stablecoin issuance [2] - Stablecoins are anticipated to be utilized in cross-border trade for small currency payments and settlements, addressing issues such as long settlement cycles and high fees [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - For 2025, the overall TPV is expected to grow by 27%, with global payments and domestic payments projected to increase by 45% and 25%, respectively [2] - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated to reach CNY 1.63 billion, a 24% year-on-year increase, with a stable gross margin of 52% [2] Group 5: Valuation - The company employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a target price of HKD 17.3, which includes a valuation of HKD 16.0 from its core business and HKD 1.3 from its equity stake in a connected company [3] - The company is viewed positively due to its growth in TPV, revenue, and profit improvement prospects, alongside innovations in cross-border payment technology [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on LianLian Digital with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 17.3, representing a potential upside of 40% from the latest closing price of HKD 12.42 [6]. Core Insights - LianLian Digital is positioned as a leading 2B digital payment service provider, focusing on cross-border payment solutions for e-commerce merchants. The company has a strong potential for market share growth due to its established brand and merchant base [2][11]. - The company has obtained a Virtual Asset Trading Platform (VATP) license, which may open up future business opportunities in virtual asset trading and stablecoin issuance [3][12]. - The financial outlook is positive, with projected total revenue of HKD 16.3 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24% [3][5]. Company Overview - LianLian Digital primarily offers digital payment solutions, including global and domestic payment services. The company has served over 5.9 million merchants and achieved a total payment volume (TPV) of approximately HKD 3.3 trillion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 65% [11][45]. - The company has a diversified revenue stream, with digital payment services contributing 88% of total revenue in 2024 [18]. Financial Performance - In 2024, LianLian Digital reported total revenue of HKD 13.1 billion, a 28% increase from the previous year. The global payment segment contributed 70% of the digital payment revenue [2][18]. - The company achieved an adjusted net profit of HKD 79 million in 2024, marking its first profitable year [24][30]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - LianLian Digital holds a significant market share in the cross-border payment sector, with its global payment TPV accounting for approximately 13.1% of China's cross-border e-commerce export value in 2024 [2][45]. - The competitive landscape in the cross-border payment industry is fragmented, with key players including Payoneer, PingPong, and others [2][11]. Future Opportunities - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for digital payment solutions in the cross-border e-commerce market, which is projected to reach USD 1.2 trillion by 2024 [46]. - The potential issuance of stablecoins could provide additional revenue streams, particularly in cross-border trade scenarios where traditional payment methods face challenges [3][12].

Summary of the Conference Call for Lianlian Digital Company Overview - Lianlian Digital is a leading independent digital payment solution provider in China, holding a market share of 9.1% [2][3] - The company’s main business segments include global payments (60% of revenue), domestic payments (25%), and value-added services (10%) [2][4] Core Business Insights - **Global Payments**: This is the primary revenue source, with a projected transaction volume of 0.28 trillion RMB in 2024 and a fee rate of approximately 0.3% [2][6] - **Domestic Payments**: Targeting B2B clients, the domestic payment transaction volume is expected to reach 3 trillion RMB in 2024, with a low fee rate of about 0.01% [2][8] - **Value-Added Services**: Revenue from value-added services is projected to be 1.5 billion RMB in 2024, accounting for 11% of total revenue [9] Financial Performance - In 2024, Lianlian Digital expects total revenue of 1.3 billion RMB, a 28% year-on-year increase, but will incur a loss of approximately 170 million RMB due to listing expenses and losses from a joint venture with American Express [3][20] - Revenue growth is anticipated to be between 25% and 30% in 2025, reaching 2.6 to 2.7 billion RMB, with a profit forecast of around 1.5 billion RMB due to equity transfer gains [20][23] Market Dynamics - The cross-border payment market is benefiting from global trade growth, increased demand for Chinese exports, and the expansion of e-commerce platforms [3][12] - Small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises prefer third-party payment solutions like Lianlian Digital due to the high costs and regulatory burdens associated with traditional banks [13][14] Strategic Initiatives - Lianlian Digital is actively exploring the application of stablecoins in cross-border payments, leveraging policy support and its licensing advantages [2][5] - The company holds 65 global payment licenses, enhancing its operational capabilities across key markets including mainland China, Hong Kong, Southeast Asia, the US, and the EU [15][17] Future Opportunities - The stablecoin market presents significant opportunities for Lianlian Digital, with potential benefits from issuing its own stablecoin and collaborating with existing ecosystems [18][21] - The company aims to integrate its virtual asset trading platform with payment services to enhance customer stickiness and competitiveness [21][22] Conclusion - Lianlian Digital is positioned for robust growth in the digital payment sector, with a strong focus on cross-border payments and innovative financial solutions. The company is expected to achieve profitability by 2026-2027 as it continues to expand its market presence and optimize its business model [20][22][23]

Core Insights - Airwallex has successfully completed a $300 million Series F funding round led by Square Peg, with participation from DST Global, Lone Pine Capital, Blackbird, Airtree, Salesforce Ventures, and several established pension funds. Visa Ventures also joined as a strategic investor [2]. Company Overview - Airwallex is a leading global payment and financial platform that provides modern enterprises with global payment, financial management, expense control, and embedded financial solutions. The company utilizes its self-built global financial service infrastructure to address various frictions and inconveniences in global payments and financial operations, enabling businesses of all sizes to seize new global opportunities and achieve borderless growth. Its core services include global business accounts, global acquiring, global spend management, and platform APIs, with a technological advantage that allows clients to instantly generate local accounts in over 60 countries and conduct fund transfers in more than 150 countries, significantly surpassing traditional banks in speed and efficiency [3]. Funding Utilization - The funding will assist Airwallex in further expanding its global financial service infrastructure and continuously optimizing its software platform to support businesses in achieving borderless growth. The CEO, Jack Zhang, emphasized that this financing marks a significant step in reshaping the global financial system and empowering businesses of all sizes for globalization. The funds will be used to accelerate business expansion in regions such as the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Latin America, while also enhancing technology and service capabilities to provide more efficient and convenient global financial services [4]. Investment Rationale - Square Peg's founder noted that Airwallex is experiencing rapid business growth, with a compound annual growth rate of over 250% in gross profit in both the Americas and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company has built a robust global financial service infrastructure through direct integration with local clearing systems and card networks, along with one of the most comprehensive licensing arrangements in the fintech sector. There is confidence in Airwallex's team's exceptional execution and innovation capabilities to continue leading transformation in the global payment and financial sector, creating substantial returns for investors [4]. Market Perspective - The recent funding round for Airwallex is viewed as a significant event in the global fintech sector, reflecting the market's high recognition of its business model and technological strength. The urgent demand for digital transformation in the global payment and financial markets, coupled with supportive government policies promoting fintech innovation and development, positions Airwallex to stand out in this trend and set new benchmarks for the industry. For venture capital institutions, investing in Airwallex is not only an acknowledgment of its technological strength and market potential but also a strategic move to capitalize on the global fintech development trend. This funding represents a crucial milestone for Airwallex, providing strong support for further business expansion and competitiveness [5].