【固收】 墨西哥债市全览：拉美地区成熟且结构完善的债券市场 墨西哥宏观经济与债务环境演变： 债务高速扩张酿成危机，后改革逐步改善债务结构与管理。20世纪70年代，墨西哥依靠石油出口和外资流入实现经济快速 扩张，债务规模激增，外债占比超过60%。随着石油危机和美国利率飙升，墨西哥于1982年爆发债务危机。进入21世纪后，墨政府通过稳健财政和结构性改 革逐步化解历史债务风险，债务结构趋于合理。截至2025年，墨西哥政府债券总额达14.5万亿比索，其中固定利率债和通胀挂钩债占比提升，反映出政府倾 向于长期、低利率融资和对冲通胀的战略安排。当前经济增速温和，外部融资需求持续，墨西哥央行降息减轻债务负担，整体债务可持续性有所改善。 墨西哥债券市场是拉美地区最成熟和国际化程度较高的固定收益市场之一。 央行独立实施货币政策，依托丰沛外汇储备与稳健资产负债表，在近年通胀波动 背景下灵活调整利率，维护金融稳定。墨西哥采纳灵活汇率制度，汇率自由浮动，具备作为外部冲击缓冲器的功能，且外汇管制程度较低。债券发行、交易、 结算等基础设施完善，集中交易平台（BMV）和场外市场互补，结算系统高度电子化、标准化。法治环境与国际规范接轨，债务 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of Mexico's macroeconomic and debt environment, highlighting the rapid expansion of debt leading to a crisis in the 1980s, followed by gradual improvements in debt structure and management through reforms [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic and Debt Environment - In the 1970s, Mexico experienced rapid economic growth driven by oil exports and foreign investment, resulting in a significant increase in debt, with external debt exceeding 60% [1] - The debt crisis in 1982 was triggered by the oil crisis and rising U.S. interest rates [1] - By 2025, the total amount of Mexican government bonds is projected to reach 14.5 trillion pesos, with an increased proportion of fixed-rate and inflation-linked bonds, indicating a strategy for long-term, low-interest financing and inflation hedging [1] - Current economic growth is moderate, with ongoing external financing needs, and the central bank's interest rate cuts are alleviating debt burdens, leading to improved overall debt sustainability [1] Group 2: Bond Market Characteristics - Mexico's bond market is one of the most mature and internationalized fixed-income markets in Latin America, with an independent central bank implementing flexible monetary policy [2] - The country has a flexible exchange rate system, low levels of foreign exchange controls, and a well-developed infrastructure for bond issuance, trading, and settlement [2] - The legal environment aligns with international standards, and the debt management mechanism is transparent, with a continuous introduction of new bond types, such as inflation-linked and green bonds [2] Group 3: Government Bond Types and Market Development - The variety of government bonds in Mexico includes short-term discount treasury bills, floating-rate bonds, inflation-linked bonds, and savings protection bonds [3] - By September 2025, the total amount of government bonds is expected to exceed 14.5 trillion pesos, with domestic institutional investors dominating the market [3] - Investment funds have rapidly expanded, holding over 2.5 trillion pesos in government bonds, while foreign investors play a crucial role in the internationalization and pricing transparency of the Mexican bond market, currently holding about 1.76 trillion pesos in total government bonds [3] Group 4: Risks and Investment Strategies - The Mexican bond market faces multiple risks, including exchange rate, interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks [4] - Exchange rate fluctuations require reliance on derivatives for hedging, while interest rate risk is managed through duration management [4] - Credit risk management is essential due to historical sovereign credit stability, but some corporate high-yield bonds may pose credit risks [4] - Investment strategies emphasize duration management based on the yield curve, optimizing bond selection by considering credit spreads and macroeconomic data [4] - Investors are advised to diversify currency risks and include hard currency-denominated bonds to buffer against peso volatility, balancing returns and risks through a multi-dimensional asset allocation approach [4]