多晶硅日报 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 18 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: December 05, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Market Performance - Futures price of polysilicon main contract: The PS2601 contract closed at 56,915 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The trading volume was 175,576 lots, and the open - interest was 116,653 lots, with a net decrease of 11,085 lots [4] - Spot price of polysilicon: The transaction price of n - type re -投料 ranged from 49,000 to 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 53,200 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month. The transaction price of n - type granular silicon ranged from 50,000 to 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 50,500 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Fundamental situation: The fundamentals have not improved. The monthly output remains the same as in November. Profits are concentrated in the silicon material segment, but downstream segments are continuously lowering prices due to terminal pressure. Downstream enterprises are reducing production and controlling output. The spot price remains stable, meeting the policy requirements. The adjustment of the supply - demand relationship is difficult to be improved by the industry's own drive [4] - Futures price trend: The exchange's position limit sends a stable signal. The net long position of the top 20 decreased by 10,393 lots, and the net short position decreased by 5,181 lots. The upward resistance of the futures price is strong. After rising and then falling, it brings adjustment pressure again. The short - term support is around 55,800 [4] Group 4: Market News - On December 04, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 1,560 lots, an increase of 10 lots from the previous trading day [5] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that it and industry enterprises are working together, and the relevant work is progressing steadily. The rumors on the Internet are all false information. The association will fight against malicious acts of short - selling the photovoltaic industry [5] - The Silicon Industry Branch of the association estimates that the output in November was about 114,900 tons, a 14% decrease from 137,000 tons in October. The output in December is expected to rebound to about 120,000 tons [5]

Report Date - The report date is September 4, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The polysilicon market is expected to maintain a cautiously bullish and volatile trend. The spot price has risen significantly, leading the industry out of loss and involution. However, the policy side lacks the logic to stimulate further price increases, mainly relying on the implementation and matching of policy expectations. The improvement of the supply - demand relationship is slow, and breaking through the high - level resistance requires the implementation of more than expected policies [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The price of the polysilicon main contract continued high - level volatility. The closing price of PS2511 was 52,160 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The trading volume was 362,759 lots, and the open interest was 149,210 lots, with a net increase of 3,355 lots [4] - **Future Outlook**: The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feedstock is 47,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 49,000 yuan/ton, up 2.30% week - on - week. In September, production will be restricted, which will support the upward movement of the spot price center. The monthly production is expected to be flat compared with the previous month at 145,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 56.8GW, higher than the expected production of solar cells. The downward pressure on terminal demand will gradually be transmitted to the upstream of the industrial chain. The domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity in July was only 11GW [4] 2. Market News - On September 3, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 6,870 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reached 1,109.6GW, and the new installed capacity from January to July was 223.25GW. The new installed capacity in July was 11GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance Review and Outlook - The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract continued to fluctuate at a high level. The closing price of PS2511 was 49,665 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. The trading volume was 376,304 lots, and the open interest was 143,912 lots, with a net decrease of 10,625 lots [4]. - The transaction price range of n-type re-feeding polycrystalline silicon was 46,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,900 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week. The polycrystalline silicon output in August will increase to 125,000 tons, and in September, it will enter the stage of production restriction and sales control, but the monthly output is expected to remain above 120,000 tons. The demand is simply calculated to be 56.8GW, higher than the expected output of solar cells. The downward pressure on terminal demand will gradually be transmitted to the upstream of the industrial chain. The domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity in July was only 11GW, and the fundamentals remained loose. The rigid spot price provides strong support for the futures price, but the implementation of policies has not been significantly reflected in the fundamentals. The weak terminal demand pressure is emerging, and the high-level warehouse receipts continue to increase, so the futures price is under pressure and will mainly fluctuate widely [4]. 2. Market News - On August 28, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 6,880 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - As of August 22, many photovoltaic listed companies, including LONGi Green Energy, Tongwei Co., Ltd., and Trina Solar, released their first-half "report cards". Some photovoltaic module manufacturers such as Aikosolar Co., Ltd. and Hongyuan Green Energy showed signs of performance improvement, achieving loss reduction or turning losses into profits in the first half of the year. Experts believe that in the context of the continuous advancement of the "anti-involution" process in the photovoltaic industry, as the price adjustment in the polycrystalline silicon segment is gradually accepted by the downstream market, the module price will soon return to the cost line. The whole industry maintaining low-load production and low gross profit margins may become the norm. In addition, promoting "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry cannot only focus on the manufacturing end, and the role of the asset end is also crucial [5]. - From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reached 1,109.6GW, and the new installed capacity from January to July was 223.25GW. The new installed capacity in July was 11GW, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].