2025 年 10 月 09 日 工业硅：预计高开低走，建议逢高布空思路 多晶硅：预计高开低走 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） Si2511成交量（手） | 8,640 228,120 | 30 -164,582 | -285 -190,560 | 250 -110,854 | | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 174,398 | -32,579 | -99,298 | -118,017 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 51,360 | 80 | 1,100 | - | | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 163,314 | 5,202 | -132,794 | - | | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 87,359 ...

人民财讯9月5日电，广期所多晶硅主力合约涨幅扩大至6%，现报55200元/吨。 （原标题：广期所多晶硅主力合约涨幅扩大至6%） ...

多晶硅日报 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 日期 2025 年 09 月 04 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the polysilicon futures market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with the main contract rising by 2.01% to 52,435.0 yuan/ton as of August 18 [1] - As of August 15, the average market price for polysilicon (N-type dense material) was 47 yuan/kg, with manufacturing costs at approximately 39.7 yuan/kg, resulting in a net profit of about 7.3 yuan/kg [2] - The production capacity utilization rate for domestic polysilicon enterprises was reported at 39.5% in July, reflecting an increase of 4% compared to the previous month [2] Group 2 - According to Guoxin Futures, there has been a significant increase in weekly polysilicon production, particularly from leading enterprises in the southwest region, with potential for further increases in production rates from other companies [3] - CICC Futures noted that while there are some price adjustments in the component segment, the overall terminal demand remains weak, leading to limited transaction volumes [3] - The market is currently characterized by volatility driven by sentiment, with significant price fluctuations expected in the absence of sustained demand support [3]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance and Outlook - The price of the polysilicon main contract continued to fluctuate at a high level. The closing price of PS2509 was 51,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11%. The trading volume was 395,645 lots, and the open interest was 132,463 lots, with a net decrease of 3,592 lots [4]. - Recently, commodities as a whole are in a correction phase after a sharp rise, and the supply - demand contradiction of polysilicon itself has not intensified. Since the end of June, the fundamentals have not been the main driving factor but have restricted the price increase. On the supply side, the polysilicon production schedule in August increased significantly to 125,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 56.82GW. On the demand side, the monthly output of silicon wafers and cells dropped to about 52GW. In fact, the recent price increase has stimulated the production increase from silicon materials to cells, and the overall supply - demand remains in a loose pattern. The increase in downstream active inventory replenishment has not intensified the supply - demand contradiction. Currently, the average price of spot N - grade polysilicon is stable at 47,200 yuan/ton. The price increase of silicon materials has not been transmitted to components and the terminal. The futures and spot prices are rigidly supported by the policy side and generally maintain a wide - range fluctuating operation [4]. 2. Market News - On August 13, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 5,150 lots, a net increase of 210 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. - From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%; the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW [5]. - According to customs data, in June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic modules, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a 2% decrease compared with 22.1GW in June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export of photovoltaic modules was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon contract continued its rebound trend, with the PS2509 closing price at 52,985 yuan/ton, a gain of 6.34%. The market is currently in a post - rally consolidation phase, and the supply - demand contradiction of polysilicon is not intensified. The fundamentals, though not the short - term dominant factor, restrict the price increase. The supply in August increased significantly to 125,000 tons, meeting about 56.82GW of downstream demand, while the monthly output of silicon wafers and cells dropped to around 52GW, keeping the supply - demand in a loose pattern. The average price of spot N - grade re - feed material is 47,200 yuan/ton. The price increase of silicon materials has not been transmitted to components and the end - market. The futures and spot prices are rigidly supported by policies and are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range volatile operation [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Performance and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The polysilicon contract PS2509 closed at 52,985 yuan/ton, up 6.34%. The trading volume was 592,822 lots, and the open interest was 139,739 lots, with a net increase of 2,143 lots [4]. - **Outlook**: The commodity market is in a post - rally consolidation. The supply - demand of polysilicon is in a loose pattern. In August, the polysilicon production schedule increased to 125,000 tons, meeting about 56.82GW of demand, while the monthly output of silicon wafers and cells dropped to around 52GW. The price of silicon materials has not been transmitted downstream. The prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range volatile operation [4]. 3.2 Market News - On August 12, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,940 lots, a net increase of 240 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%. In June, the domestic installed capacity was only 14GW [5]. - In June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic modules, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 2% decrease compared with June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export was about 127.3GW of photovoltaic modules, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5].

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The polysilicon contract continued its rebound trend. The closing price of PS2509 was 52,985 yuan/ton, with a gain of 6.34%. The trading volume was 592,822 lots, and the open interest was 139,739 lots, with a net increase of 2,143 lots [4] Outlook - The transaction price range of N-type refeed materials was 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,200 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.21%. The futures and spot prices were rigidly supported by the policy. Short - term declines were mostly stage adjustments. The commodity rebound and the daily limit in the same sector provided emotional stimulation and policy imagination [4] - Recently, the开工 rate of rising - price varieties has rebounded significantly. The supply - demand contradiction has not intensified, but the increase in polysilicon prices has not been transmitted to components and terminal power stations. The fundamentals, although not the short - term dominant factor, also restricted the price increase [4] - On the supply side, the polysilicon production schedule in August increased significantly to 125,000 tons, which could meet the downstream demand of 56.82GW. On the demand side, the monthly output of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased to about 52GW. The overall supply - demand pattern remained loose. Therefore, short - term emotional fermentation might test the resistance level, and the overall trend would be mainly wide - range fluctuations [4] Group 3: Market News - On August 8, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,700 lots, a net increase of 1,080 lots from the previous trading day [5] - From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%. In June, the domestic installed capacity was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5] - According to customs data, in June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic modules, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a 2% decrease compared with 22.1GW in June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export of photovoltaic modules was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule is decreasing and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. The 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8565 - 8955 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply side production schedule continues to increase, while the demand side shows continuous decline in silicon wafer, cell, and component production. Overall demand is in a state of continuous decline, and cost support remains stable. The 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 47770 - 50490 [10]. - The main logic for the market is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main bullish factors are cost - upward support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - reduction plans, while the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply and weak demand in downstream polysilicon [13][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and cells are in a loss state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a high level, with a production profit of 986 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 65.11%, flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, with an import loss of 817 yuan/ton [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 2027 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 31, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 790 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% decrease from the previous week. Sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% increase from the previous week. Main port inventory was 120,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 09 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for July is predicted to be 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11GW, a 1.78% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 181,500 tons, a 1.56% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In July, the production schedule for silicon wafers, cells, and components all shows a decreasing trend [9]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,500 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9000 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On July 31, the price of N - type dense material was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 2630 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 229,000 tons, a 5.76% decrease from the previous week, and it is at a high level compared to the same period in history [11]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 09 contract price closed above the MA20 [11]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and long positions are increasing [11]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of various contracts generally decreased, with the 08 contract having the largest decline of 7.06% [17]. - Spot prices of different grades of silicon also decreased, with the price of East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon dropping by 2.05% [17]. - The 421 - 553 price difference increased by 20.00% [17]. Polysilicon - Futures closing prices of various contracts decreased, with the 09 contract having a decline of 10.19% [19]. - The prices of silicon wafers, cells, and components remained mostly stable, with some slight changes in profit margins [19]. 3. Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The SI main contract basis and the 421 - 553 price difference in the industrial silicon market show certain trends over time [21]. 4. Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory have different trends, with social inventory decreasing and sample enterprise inventory increasing [17]. - Polysilicon weekly inventory decreased by 5.76% [19]. 5. Production and Capacity Utilization - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization show certain trends over time, with some regional differences in production and operating rates [29]. - Polysilicon production and monthly operating rates also show corresponding trends [63]. 6. Cost - Industrial silicon component costs, including electricity prices, silica prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices, show different trends [34]. - Polysilicon industry costs also show certain trends over time [63]. 7. Supply - Demand Balance - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the relationship between supply, demand, and inventory [38][42]. - Polysilicon monthly supply - demand balance tables show the relationship between consumption, exports, imports, supply, and balance [66]. 8. Downstream Market Organic Silicon - DMC price, production, export, import, and inventory show different trends over time [44][49]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 also show corresponding trends [46]. Aluminum Alloy - The prices, in - and - out - bound trade, inventory, production, and operating rates of aluminum alloy show different trends [52][56]. - The demand for aluminum alloy in the automotive and wheel hub industries also shows corresponding trends [57]. Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and operating rates of polysilicon and its downstream products (silicon wafers, cells, components) show different trends [62]. - The supply - demand balance of polysilicon and its downstream products also shows corresponding trends [65]. - The prices, production, inventory, and export of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coatings, photovoltaic films, photovoltaic glass, high - purity quartz sand, and solder strips show different trends [77]. - The cost and profit of polysilicon component components show corresponding trends [80]. - The new installed capacity, power generation composition, and new grid - connected capacity of photovoltaic power generation show different trends [81].

Core Viewpoint - The main contract for polysilicon has increased by over 7%, currently priced at 53,800 yuan per ton [1] Industry Summary - The significant rise in polysilicon prices indicates a strong demand in the solar energy sector, reflecting positive market trends [1]

Core Insights - The main contract for polysilicon has surged over 6%, currently priced at 53,320 yuan per ton [1] Group 1 - The significant increase in polysilicon prices indicates strong demand in the market [1]