Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The price of polysilicon futures in February is expected to be volatile and weak, with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton. The main reasons are the high inventory of polysilicon, the pressure on terminal demand caused by the increase in the prices of silver and non - ferrous metals, and the cancellation of joint production cuts, sales restrictions, and price increases under the anti - involution policy [5][40]. Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: The significant increase in the prices of silver and non - ferrous metals has pushed up the costs of batteries and components, reducing the economic viability of exports. The production schedules of components and batteries in February are expected to decline, while the production schedule of silicon wafers remains stable at around 46GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 87,400 tons. The output of polysilicon in February is expected to be about 82,000 tons, and although there is a slight inventory reduction, the high inventory of over 330,000 tons still exerts pressure on the spot price [4][40]. - **Trading Logic**: After the座谈会 on January 28, the anti - involution policy will focus more on the market and legal aspects. The optimal pricing strategy for manufacturers may be to refer to their full costs. The annual operating rate of enterprises is expected to be around 30% - 50%, with a corresponding industry cost range of (42,000, 50,000) yuan/ton. The spot price in February will be a key reference for futures pricing, and the futures price will be volatile and weak, with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton [5][40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, expect a volatile and weak trend with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton; for arbitrage, recommend positive arbitrage; for options, no recommendation is provided [7]. 2. Fundamental Situation - **Market Review**: In January, the polysilicon futures price dropped significantly after being affected by the anti - monopoly risk reminder and the anti - involution policy, and then stabilized with a weakening trend at the end of the month. The main contract once fell to around 48,000 yuan/ton and then to the 49,000 yuan/ton level [9]. - **Demand**: The increase in the prices of non - ferrous metals has significantly pushed up the costs of batteries and components, reducing the economic viability of exports. The production schedules of batteries and components in February are expected to decline, while the production schedule of silicon wafers remains stable at around 46GW. The cancellation of the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026, may lead to a rush to export in the first quarter, but the sharp increase in costs has eroded the preferential price space [14][18]. - **Supply**: The production schedule of polysilicon in February is expected to be reduced. The total domestic output in February is estimated to be 81,600 tons, with only Tongwei Co., Ltd. having a reduced output compared to January [34]. - **Inventory**: The high - inventory pattern of polysilicon remains unchanged. In January, the inventory increased on paper, and as of January 23, the inventory of polysilicon enterprises reached 330,000 - 340,000 tons, while the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises decreased to about 150,000 tons. The inventory of the delivery warehouse increased to 24,200 tons. The possible restocking by downstream enterprises before the Spring Festival and the increased willingness to sell by upstream enterprises due to inventory pressure will be negative for the spot price [36]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Fundamental Outlook**: The cost of batteries and components has increased significantly, the production schedules of components and batteries in February are expected to decline, the production schedule of silicon wafers remains stable, the output of polysilicon in February is about 82,000 tons, and the high - inventory pressure still exists, putting pressure on the spot price [40]. - **Trading Logic Analysis**: The anti - involution policy focuses on the market and legal aspects, the optimal pricing strategy for manufacturers is to refer to full costs, the annual operating rate of enterprises is around 30% - 50%, the spot price in February will be a key reference for futures pricing, and the futures price will be volatile and weak, with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton [5][40]. - **Operation Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a volatile and weak trend with a price range of (45,000, 52,000) yuan/ton; for arbitrage and options, no recommendations are provided [41].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, and inventory data of polysilicon futures and spot markets, as well as the news of market regulators'约谈 of photovoltaic companies [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Prices - PS2602 closed at 50,965 with a 1.73% increase; PS2603 at 50,990 with a 1.03% increase; PS2604 at 51,145 with a 1.52% increase; PS2605 at 51,280 with a 1.18% increase [1]. Spreads - The spread between PS2602 - PS2603 was -25, up 345; PS2603 - PS2604 was -155, down 245; PS2604 - PS2605 was -135, up 205 [1]. Spot Prices - The average price of N - type dense material was 53.25, and N - type mixed material was 52.5 [1][2]. Inventory - Polysilicon inventory was 0.9 million tons per week, silicon wafer inventory was 26.78 GW per week, and registered warehouse receipts were 6,850 tons per day [2]. Market News - Market regulators have约谈ed 6 photovoltaic industry leaders and the industry association, requiring them not to agree on production capacity, sales prices, etc., and to submit written rectification measures by January 20 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the "rush to export" market caused by the adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy boosts market confidence and improves the extremely sluggish demand in the off - season. The increase in component exports from January to March will drive the growth of polysilicon demand. But if enterprises do not actively cut production to digest inventory, polysilicon prices will face significant downward pressure in the medium and long term [2][21]. - In the long run, cost control and technological optimization are the core competitiveness of enterprises and key variables affecting the long - term trend of polysilicon futures. As the industry returns to a market - oriented competition order, the supply - demand pattern will shift from "oversupply and high inventory" to a healthy state, and the futures price will more accurately reflect the real value of the industry [3][21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Influence - Since May 2025, rumors and measures related to polysilicon capacity storage have dominated the sentiment and price trend of polysilicon futures, showing characteristics of "expected - driven rise - regulatory cooling and shock - policy reversal and sharp decline". The establishment of the capacity integration and acquisition platform "Guanghe Qiancheng" in December 2025 drove the futures price to a high of 61,985 yuan/ton on December 17. However, subsequent regulatory interventions, including the market supervision department's约谈 of leading enterprises in January 2026, reversed the policy expectation, causing a sharp decline in the futures price [4]. Current Situation of the Polysilicon Industry - From January 2023 to December 2025, the polysilicon industry's over - supply is a long - term problem with periodic adjustments. The mismatch between production expansion and demand, and the subsequent supply rebound after industry adjustment, have led to continuous over - supply. The industry's high inventory, reaching 32,234 tons for polysilicon enterprises and over 500,000 tons in the industrial chain by 2026, will suppress prices in the first half of 2026 [7][9]. - Before 2024, the photovoltaic industry chain had high profitability. After 2024, intensified competition led to profit decline. In the second half of 2025, profits concentrated in the polysilicon segment, while downstream segments suffered losses. The anti - monopoly约谈 in January 2026 will reshape the profit distribution logic, promoting a return to market - oriented rationality [10][13]. Cancellation of Export Tax Rebates - From April 1, 2026, the 13% VAT export tax - rebate rate for photovoltaic products will be zeroed, and the tax - rebate rate for power batteries will be gradually reduced to zero. Before April 1, a "rush to export" is likely to occur. It is estimated that the demand for polysilicon may increase by 1 - 1.5 tons per month, and the oversupply may be reduced to less than 10,000 tons. However, after April, the demand will face pressure, and enterprises need to cut production [16][18]. Polysilicon Futures - In the short term, the "rush to export" will drive polysilicon demand growth. But without production cuts, prices will face downward pressure in the medium and long term. In the long run, cost control and technological optimization will drive the industry to a more balanced state, and the futures price will better reflect the real value of the industry [21].

Report Date - The report is dated January 6, 2026 [2] Market Performance - The price of the main contract of polycrystalline silicon showed a strong and volatile trend. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 58,645 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.19%. The trading volume was 17,155 lots, and the open interest was 74,571 lots, with a net decrease of 1,797 lots. The net long positions of the top twenty decreased by 1,168 lots, and the net short positions of the top twenty decreased by 1,164 lots [4] Spot Price - The transaction price range of n-type polysilicon reclaimed materials was 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 53,900 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 1.32%. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 50,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period [4] Market Outlook - The spot price remained stable overall. The Silicon Industry Branch expected that the output and shipment scale of polysilicon in January would be significantly reduced to 60,000 - 80,000 tons, but the implementation needed to be observed. Downstream components were also under pressure from the rising prices of silver and silicon materials, and the production schedule in January would decline. The supply and demand were expected to enter a stage of simultaneous reduction. The polysilicon futures would remain stable and continue to trade with low volume and decreasing positions in a volatile manner before there was a significant improvement in the industry and policy relaxation [4] Market News - On January 5, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,030 lots, an increase of 20 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] - In December, the estimated production of polysilicon was 116,900 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.42% [5] - At the end of December, the inventory of polysilicon factories was 309,800 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.49% [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In January, the main production center of industrial silicon will continue to shift northward. Although there is a reduction in production due to environmental protection control, it is difficult to offset the decline in demand. Polysilicon will have limited - production reduction, silicone will have group - reduction, and aluminum alloy will have environmental - protection reduction. Industrial silicon has cost support but no upward driving force, and it is advisable to consider short - selling on rebounds. [4] - Although the photovoltaic industry chain has seen price increases driven by battery cells recently, due to the transmission blockage in the component segment, the effect of further price increases is limited, and downstream industries will further expand the scale of production reduction. [4] - In January, with industry self - discipline and the joint production reduction of silicon materials, polysilicon is expected to have an unexpected reduction in supply, which will provide strong support. At the same time, due to the exchange's implementation of risk - control position limits, the upward premium space is tightened. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production reduction by silicon material factories, downstream receiving sentiment, and the inventory dynamics of the industrial chain. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Price - In December, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly. As of the 31st, the main contract closed at 8,860 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 2.96%. The polysilicon futures fluctuated strongly, and the main contract closed at 57,920 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 2.65%. [5] 3.2 Spot Price - All industrial silicon spot prices decreased. The price of non - oxygenated 553 decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 8,950 yuan/ton, oxygenated 553 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,400 yuan/ton, and 421 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 9,900 yuan/ton. Polysilicon P - type remained stable at 44,000 yuan/ton, and N - type increased by 800 yuan/ton to 51,800 yuan/ton. [5] 3.3 Spread - In December, the spread between 553 widened, the spread between high - and low - grade products narrowed, the regional spread of 553 widened, and the regional spread of 421 narrowed. The industrial silicon spot discount narrowed to 10 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon spot discount narrowed to 4,670 yuan/ton. [5][17] 3.4 Supply - According to Baichuan, it is estimated that the domestic industrial silicon production in December will be 348,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. The number of monthly open furnaces decreased by 14 to 243, and the furnace - opening rate decreased by 1.76% to 0.5%. [4][5] 3.5 Demand - In December, the polysilicon production decreased by 0.4 tons to 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. The DMC production decreased by 13,200 tons to 196,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.3%. [4][5] 3.6 Inventory - In terms of the exchange, the overall inventory of industrial silicon in December increased by 17,200 tons to 50,000 tons, and the polysilicon inventory increased by 81,000 tons to 121,000 tons. In terms of social inventory, the overall inventory of industrial silicon in December increased by 7,750 tons to 456,000 tons, including a 2,750 - ton increase in factory inventory to 266,000 tons; Huangpu Port's inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 58,000 tons, Tianjin Port's inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 80,000 tons, and Kunming Port's inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 52,000 tons. The monthly inventory of polysilicon increased by 2.62 tons to 30.8 tons. [4][5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the main contract for polysilicon has increased by 4%, currently priced at 60,335 yuan per ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market for polysilicon is showing a cautious and moderately strong trend. The establishment of the reserve platform has increased the preference for long - position funds, causing the market price to break through resistance levels and resonate with the technical aspects. However, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has been taking measures to release rational signals and reduce positions. Also, the certainty of the improvement in the fundamental situation is not significant yet, and the expected price increase in the silicon material sector needs to be transmitted throughout the entire industry chain for a re - distribution of industrial profits. The supply side may see positive effects as the expected polysilicon output in January is to be significantly reduced to 60,000 - 80,000 tons, but this requires continuous observation. The price has formed a downward trend on the minute - line chart and is in the upward adjustment stage. After breaking below the support level of 58,000 yuan, it has not resumed its upward trend, and attention should be paid to the resistance in the range of 59,000 - 60,000 yuan [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The main contract price of polysilicon is oscillating at a high level. The closing price of the PS2605 contract is 58,300 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.30%. The trading volume is 197,440 lots, and the open interest is 127,084 lots, a net decrease of 4,519 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 traders decreased by 493 lots, and the net short positions decreased by 3,038 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the transaction price range of polysilicon N - type re - feedstock is 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%. The transaction price range of N - type granular silicon is 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The market is expected to run cautiously and moderately strong. The establishment of the reserve platform has increased the preference for long - position funds, but the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has been reducing positions. The improvement in the fundamental situation is not certain, and the expected price increase in the silicon material sector needs to be transmitted throughout the industry chain. The expected reduction in polysilicon output in January is a positive factor for the supply side but needs continuous observation. Pay attention to the resistance in the range of 59,000 - 60,000 yuan [4]. 3.2. Market News - On December 24, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,960 lots, an increase of 300 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. has completed its registration, marking the official launch of the long - awaited "polysilicon production capacity integration and acquisition platform" in the photovoltaic industry. The platform plans to adopt an innovative "two - pronged approach" model, operating under a dual - track model of "debt - assumption acquisition + flexible utilization of production capacity" [5]. - The estimated polysilicon output in December is 113,500 tons, and there may still be some production reduction plans in the future [5]. - According to the notice of Guangzhou Futures Exchange (No. 420 [2025]), starting from the trading time on December 22, 2025, for polysilicon futures contracts PS2601 - PS2612, the minimum opening order quantity per transaction has been adjusted from 1 lot to 5 lots, while the minimum closing order quantity per transaction remains at 1 lot [5].

Core Viewpoint - The main contract for polysilicon has seen a significant increase, reaching a new high since its listing, indicating strong market demand and potential investment opportunities in the polysilicon sector [1] Group 1 - The polysilicon main contract has expanded its intraday increase to 4.00%, currently priced at 61,395 yuan per ton [1] - This price marks a new high since the contract's listing, reflecting robust market performance [1] - The contract has risen over 12% in value this month, showcasing a strong upward trend in the polysilicon market [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the price of polysilicon has increased by 4% in a single day, reaching 54,105.00 yuan [1] Group 2 - The news indicates a significant upward movement in the polysilicon market, reflecting potential positive trends in the solar energy sector [1] - The increase in polysilicon prices may impact the overall cost structure of solar panel manufacturing, which could influence market dynamics [1] - This price change could signal investor interest and confidence in the renewable energy market, particularly in the context of increasing demand for solar energy solutions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of polysilicon futures contracts has increased by 4% on December 9, reaching 54,105.00 yuan [1] Group 1 - Polysilicon continuous main contract experienced a daily increase of 4% [1]