| 纷瑞达期货 | | --- | | RUIDA FUTURES CO.,LTD. | 导致企业利润空间压缩，生产积极性受挫。今日多晶硅开始继续上行，受到工业硅上行，电力成本上行原 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 因共振，但是涨幅明显低于工业硅，后续预计上涨动能有限，重点关注56000上方压力位。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 多晶硅产业日报 2025-11-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨 ...

晶澳科技(002459)发布澄清公告。 当日晚间，晶澳科技发布澄清公告称，近日，网络上流传关于公司的不实言论，引发部分关注。对此， 公司澄清并郑重声明如下：公司董事会秘书未在任何内部或外部会议上发表过网传言论。相关内容系网 络谣传，严重误导公众认知，损害公司及行业声誉。针对不实言论的传播行为，公司保留通过法律途径 追究相关责任的权利。 公司提醒广大投资者、合作伙伴及社会公众，应通过证监会指定信息披露媒体、公司官方渠道了解真实 信息，不信谣、不传谣，共同维护健康的市场秩序与舆论环境。公司将严格按照有关法律法规的规定和 要求，履行信息披露义务。请广大投资者理性投资，注意投资风险。 12日下午，中国光伏行业协会亦发布声明称，当下，中国光伏行业协会和行业内各企业正一道努力，相 关工作正在稳步推进。网络流传的小道消息均为不实信息，请各位注意甄别，慎重决策。协会坚定维护 国家利益、行业利益，妄图通过造谣抹黑、恶意做空光伏行业牟取利益的恶劣行为，协会将与之斗争到 底。 11月12日，受市场传闻影响，光伏产业链股大幅跳水，截至收盘，阿特斯跌超14%，艾罗能源跌超 10%，隆基绿能、晶澳科技、通威股份等跌超6%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent rumors about the company have led to significant market reactions, prompting the company to issue a clarification statement to address misinformation and protect its reputation [1][2]. Group 1: Company Response - The company issued a clarification stating that its board secretary did not make any statements related to the circulating rumors, which are deemed false and misleading [1]. - The company reserves the right to pursue legal action against those spreading false information [1]. - The company urges investors and the public to rely on official channels for accurate information and to avoid spreading rumors [4]. Group 2: Market Impact - On November 12, shares of companies in the photovoltaic industry experienced significant declines due to market rumors, with notable drops including over 14% for Canadian Solar and over 10% for Enphase Energy, while LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, and Tongwei Co. fell by more than 6% [2]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association also released a statement supporting the industry and condemning the spread of false information, emphasizing the need for careful decision-making [4].

Core Viewpoint - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has issued a statement refuting false information circulating online, emphasizing that the industry is making steady progress and urging stakeholders to discern misinformation carefully [1]. Group 1 - The association is committed to safeguarding national and industry interests against malicious rumors and actions aimed at undermining the photovoltaic sector for profit [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market opened lower today but rallied in the late session due to news, erasing previous losses and turning positive. It is expected to continue rising, but excessive chasing is not recommended. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 53,460 yuan/ton, up 1,530 yuan; the open interest was 140,617 lots, up 1,772 lots; the basis between December and January was 100 yuan, up 80 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 44,265 yuan/ton, up 1,515 yuan [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of polysilicon was 52,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis was -1,520 yuan/ton, down 505 yuan; the average price of N-type silicon wafers was 1.28 yuan/piece, down 0.01 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon was 6.5 dollars/kg, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 9,195 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the spot price was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume was 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly output of polysilicon was 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,292 tons, up 286 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.91 dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price was 2.35 dollars/ton, down 0.27 dollars [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells was 7,0873,000 kilowatts, up 1,016,000 kilowatts; the average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules was 0.74 yuan/watt, unchanged; the comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry was 32.82, unchanged; the average price of solar cells was 0.82 yuan/W, up 0.01 yuan; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 129,531,290 pieces, down 19,491,370 pieces; the monthly import volume was 14,733,770 pieces, down 6,706,520 pieces; the monthly average import price was 0.3 dollars/piece, up 0.06 dollars [3] Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that relevant work is progressing steadily, and rumors are false information. In the polysilicon sector, the dry season in Southwest China has increased power costs, squeezing production profits and leading to production cuts. The downstream demand in the photovoltaic industry chain remains weak, with component tender prices falling and many projects postponed or shelved [3] Key Concerns - There is no news today [3]

中国光伏行业协会发布关于网络不实消息的声明。声明称，当下，中国光伏行业协会和行业内各企业正 一道努力，相关工作正在稳步推进。网络流传的小道消息均为不实信息，望请各位注意甄别，慎重决 策。协会坚定维护国家利益，行业利益，妄图通过造谣抹黑、恶意做空光伏行业牟取利益的恶劣行为， 我们将与之斗争到底。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the solar industry, with specific ratings of "Buy-A" and "Buy-B" assigned to various stocks [1]. Core Insights - In September 2025, domestic photovoltaic (PV) installations decreased by 53.8% year-on-year, totaling 9.7GW, while cumulative installations from January to September reached 240.27GW, reflecting a 49.3% increase year-on-year [2][12]. - The export value of PV components in September was 199.8 billion yuan, marking a 39.0% year-on-year increase, despite a 4.7% decrease from the previous month. Cumulative exports for the first nine months were 1,521.8 billion yuan, down 13.3% year-on-year [2][15]. - Inverter exports also showed growth, with a September export value of 50.8 billion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year, but down 19.2% month-on-month. Cumulative inverter exports for January to September reached 484.9 billion yuan, a 7.7% increase year-on-year [3][25]. - Solar power generation in September increased by 21.1% year-on-year, contributing to 5.63% of the total national power generation, which was 8,262 billion kilowatt-hours, a 1.5% increase year-on-year [4][39]. Summary by Sections Installation - In September 2025, domestic PV installations were 9.7GW, down 53.8% year-on-year, but up 31.2% month-on-month. Cumulative installations for the first nine months were 240.27GW, up 49.3% year-on-year [2][12]. Exports - PV component exports in September were valued at 199.8 billion yuan, a 39.0% increase year-on-year, but a 4.7% decrease month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January to September were 1,521.8 billion yuan, down 13.3% year-on-year [2][15]. - Inverter exports in September totaled 50.8 billion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year, but down 19.2% month-on-month. Cumulative exports for the first nine months reached 484.9 billion yuan, a 7.7% increase year-on-year [3][25]. Power Generation - Solar power generation in September was 464.8 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a 21.1% year-on-year increase and accounting for 5.63% of the total national power generation [4][39]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in various sectors: new technology (Aixu Co., Longi Green Energy), supply side (Daqo New Energy, Flat Glass Group), energy storage (Sungrow Power Supply, DeYuan Co.), electricity market (Langxin Group), domestic substitution (Quartz Co.), and overseas expansion (Hengdian East Magnetic, Bowei Alloy) [4][43].

上证报中国证券网讯（记者 王彭）11月3日，ETF市场涨跌不一。其中，中韩半导体ETF上涨4.62%，光 伏ETF龙头上涨4.55%，影视ETF、光伏ETF指数基金、游戏ETF等多只产品均涨逾3%。科创信息ETF、 黄金股ETF、黄金股票ETF等产品跌逾2%。 华泰柏瑞中证光伏产业ETF基金经理李茜和李沐阳在基金三季报中表示，四季度光伏行业盈利修复有望 加速，政策引导的产能整合与硅料"收储"方案若落地，将强化供需平衡。需求端关注国内集中式项目年 底抢装及海外圣诞采购潮，钙钛矿、BC技术迭代红利向设备环节扩散。 汇添富中证光伏产业ETF基金经理董瑾在基金三季报中表示，光伏装机需求长期仍有望持续增长。当前 板块景气度仍处于筑底阶段，在"反内卷"措施的推动下，随着产能逐步出清、产业链价格企稳，行业景 气度将有望回暖。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 对于黄金未来表现，华安基金发表公开观点表示，黄金近期在短期过热后的调整已逐渐趋于充分，利空 事件也靴子落地，后续建议投资者仍以大类资产配置为出发点，以分散风险、稳健投资理念参与黄金投 资，在低位时可适当布局。展望后市，美联储降息周期有望延续，美债信用下行和去美元化下全球央 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Guosheng Technology has seen a significant increase in its stock price, rising by 5.52% to 4.78 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 268 million CNY and a turnover rate of 8.96%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 3.139 billion CNY [1] - Guosheng Technology, established on November 5, 2002, and listed on December 31, 2015, operates in the landscaping engineering and design sector, having developed a full industry chain business model that includes technology research and development, seedling planting and maintenance, landscape design, and engineering construction [1] - The company's main business revenue is entirely derived from the photovoltaic industry, accounting for 100.31% of its income [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten circulating shareholders, a fund under Nuoan Fund has entered the top ten shareholders of Guosheng Technology, specifically the Nuoan Multi-Strategy Mixed A Fund (320016), which acquired 3.9297 million shares, representing 0.61% of the circulating shares [2] - The Nuoan Multi-Strategy Mixed A Fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 69.22%, ranking 330 out of 8223 in its category, and a one-year return of 76.35%, ranking 227 out of 8115 [2] Group 3 - The fund managers of Nuoan Multi-Strategy Mixed A are Kong Xianzheng and Wang Haichang, with Kong having a tenure of 4 years and 343 days and a best fund return of 84.52% during his tenure [3] - Wang has a tenure of 3 years and 105 days, achieving a best fund return of 71.53% during his management [3]

Report Overview - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, providing fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend strength analysis [1] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Core Views - The report suggests paying attention to the subsequent warehouse receipt registration situation for industrial silicon and notes that polysilicon is in a high - level oscillation state [1] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Si2601's closing price was 9,155 yuan/ton, with a - 15 yuan change from T - 1, 450 yuan from T - 5, and 205 yuan from T - 22. PS2601's closing price was 54,950 yuan/ton, with a - 40 yuan change from T - 1 and 4,190 yuan from T - 5. Other data such as volume and open interest also showed various changes [1] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium or discount showed different values when benchmarked against different products, and the same for polysilicon [1] - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,750 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 9,950 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feed was 52,300 yuan/ton, with corresponding price changes [1] - **Profit**: Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553 were - 2,114.5 yuan/ton and - 3,053 yuan/ton respectively, and polysilicon enterprise profit was 7.8 yuan/kg [1] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.8 + 16.8 (the meaning of this expression is not clear), and the industry inventory was 72.6 million tons. Polysilicon's factory inventory was 26.1 million tons [1] - **Raw Material Cost**: Prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions showed different trends [1] - **Polysilicon (Photovoltaic)**: Prices and profits of polysilicon - related photovoltaic products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, etc. were presented, along with their price changes [1] - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy**: DMC price was 11,000 yuan/ton, and ADC12 price was 21,300 yuan/ton, with corresponding profit data [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On October 30, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially announced the list of enterprises meeting the "Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry Specification Conditions" (the first twelve batches), with 129 eligible enterprises in total. Jiangsu had the most (35), and Zhejiang had 21. There were 10 eligible polysilicon enterprises [1][3] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon was both 0, indicating a neutral state [3]