公司研究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 硅料&电池销量维持行业第一，组件海外市场销售保持高速增长 ——通威股份（600438.SH）2025 年中报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2025 年中报，2025H1 实现营业收入 405.09 亿元，同比-7.51%， 实现归母净利润-49.55 亿元，亏损幅度同比扩大；2025Q2 实现营业收入 245.75 亿元，同比+1.44%，实现归母净利润-23.63 亿元，环比亏损幅度收窄。 硅料销量全球市占率约 30%，产品各项指标维持行业领先。 2025H1 公司实现多晶硅销售 16.13 万吨，全球市占率约 30%保持行业第一，N 型出货比例达 90%以上，硅耗降至 1.04kg/kg.si 以内，蒸汽基本实现零消耗， 同时产品质量进一步提升，N 型料体金属降至 0.1ppbw 以内，表金属降至 0.2ppbw 以内，显著领先行业。 组件海外市场销售持续保持高速增长，"渔光一体"电站业务稳健发展。 2025H1 公司实现组件销售 24.52GW，单 W 非电池成本实现同比下降 11%，期 间费用同比下降 31%。公司保持国内外组件市场开拓力度，其中国内分布式出 货 ...

中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家周末好，马上又要开盘了！过去的一周交易日， 沪指累计涨3.49%，深证成指累计涨 4.57%，创业板指累计涨5.85%。A股后市怎么走？一起回顾下周末的利好消息，以及 看看 机构怎么说！ 周末大消息 鲍威尔暗示美联储或在9月降息 道指再创新高 【导读】 这个周末，有多个利好 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上表示，尽管通胀仍受关注，但就业市场风险上升可能 使美联储在9月降息。美股三大指数周五集体收涨，其中，道指再创新高，道指、标普500指 数连涨三周。 工信部：加快突破GPU芯片等关键核心技术 8月23日，工业和信息化部副部长熊继军在2025中国算力大会上强调，工信部将有序引导算 力设施建设，切实提升算力资源供给质量。推动完善算力布局政策体系，优化布局算力基础 设施，引导各地合理布局智能算力设施，持续开展国家绿色数据中心建设。强化企业创新主 体地位，推进科技创新与产业创新深度融合。加快突破GPU芯片等关键核心技术，扩大基础 共性技术供给。 英伟达要求部分零部件供应商暂停生产H20芯片 外交部回应 外交部发言人毛宁周五主持例行记者会。彭博社记者提问："据报道称，英伟达已要求部分零 部件 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.22」 工业硅多晶硅市场周报 双硅高位徘徊震荡，震旦行情继续延续 研究员:黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 u 行情回顾： 本周工业硅下跌0.68%，本周多晶硅下跌2.53%。本周工业硅期货市场呈现出先跌后涨的走势，整体波动较 为剧烈，上半周在整体基本面压制下，工业硅出现了回落表现，但到了周五，收到光伏开会影响，价格出现了反弹， 多晶硅期货市场整体高位震荡，虽然光伏行业开会对多晶硅形成部分利好因素，但整体市场对于高价货物接受度依旧 不高，价格在达到52000以上后再次回落。 u 行情展望：工业硅方面，供应端，西南地区随着丰水期深入，随着丰水期深入，西南地区电价优势愈发明显，刺激硅 厂复产进程加快。四川、云南等地新增开炉数量不断上升，预计下周西南地区工业硅产量将环比增长。例如，四川部 分前期停产硅厂已在近期重启生产，产能逐步释放。新疆部分大厂生产节奏保持稳定，不过中小硅厂受成本及市场价 格影响，复产积极性依旧不高，整体产量维持平稳。但倘若后续市场价格出现较大波动，大厂也可能调整生产计划。 需求端看，工业硅的下游主要集中在有机硅、多 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of photovoltaic glass has rebounded, with the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass at 11 yuan/square meter as of August 8, up from the previous week, and the 3.2mm coated mainstream price at 18 yuan/square meter, remaining flat from the previous week. The price increase in August was mainly driven by an industry internal meeting, and the price - holding efforts of glass groups were effective. - Supply in the photovoltaic glass industry remained stable last week, with no cold - repairs or production cuts in production lines, and it is expected to remain stable this week. - Due to the possible cancellation of export tax - rebates for downstream component manufacturers, many component factories are increasing production in the short term, which boosts the consumption of photovoltaic glass. - As the consumption of photovoltaic glass increases, the supply - demand gap in the industry has further narrowed. The industry inventory has decreased for multiple consecutive weeks, and the current actual inventory is within a normal range, with no inventory pressure on manufacturers. - With the increase in the price of photovoltaic glass, the industry's profit has also recovered recently. - After the price increase of photovoltaic glass, it has become the mainstream transaction price, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term. [1][7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - Supply: Supply remained stable last week with no cold - repairs or production cuts in production lines, and is expected to stay stable this week [7][11]. - Demand: Due to the possible cancellation of export tax - rebates for downstream component manufacturers, many component factories are increasing production in the short term, driving up the consumption of photovoltaic glass [7][20]. - Inventory: As consumption rises, the supply - demand gap narrows, inventory has decreased for multiple weeks, and the current inventory is in a normal range with no pressure on manufacturers [7][23]. - Cost - profit: With the price increase, the industry's profit has recovered [7][26]. - Price trend: After the price increase, it has become the mainstream transaction price, and the price is expected to be stable in the short term [7]. 2. Overview of the Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data 2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Price - As of August 8, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass was 11 yuan/square meter, up from the previous week, and the 3.2mm coated mainstream price was 18 yuan/square meter, remaining flat from the previous week. The price increase in August was driven by an industry internal meeting [8]. 2.2 Supply End - Supply remained stable last week with no cold - repairs or production cuts in production lines, and is expected to remain stable this week [11]. 2.3 Demand End - Due to the possible cancellation of export tax - rebates for downstream component manufacturers, many component factories are increasing production in the short term, boosting the consumption of photovoltaic glass [20]. 2.4 Inventory End - Due to the increased production of component factories, the consumption of photovoltaic glass has increased, the supply - demand gap has narrowed, inventory has decreased for multiple weeks, and the current inventory is in a normal range with no pressure on manufacturers [23]. 2.5 Cost - Profit End - With the price increase of photovoltaic glass, the industry's profit has recovered recently [26]. 2.6 Trade End - From January to June 2025, China's photovoltaic glass export volume increased by 9.7% compared with the same period in 2024 [33].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][19]. Core Views - The company is currently facing short-term performance pressure due to a downturn in the photovoltaic industry, but its electronic materials and functional film businesses are growing rapidly, creating a second growth curve with clear long-term growth momentum [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 22,589 million, with a year-on-year growth of 19.7%. However, a decline of 15.2% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 10.1%, 10.6%, and 12.9% in the subsequent years [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,850 million in 2023, with a decrease of 29.3% expected in 2024, before rebounding to 1,691 million in 2025, and reaching 2,890 million by 2027 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is estimated to be 0.71 in 2023, dropping to 0.50 in 2024, and then increasing to 1.11 by 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline to 8.0% in 2024, before recovering to 14.7% by 2027 [4]. Target Price - The target price for the company is set at 17.00 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 25 times the estimated EPS for 2025 [12]. Business Growth Drivers - The company has established itself as a leader in the domestic photosensitive dry film market, with significant sales growth expected in 2024, projected to reach 15,933.90 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 37.97% [12]. - The functional film materials business, including aluminum-plastic films and RO support films, is also expected to accelerate growth, driven by increasing demand in the new energy vehicle and water resource treatment markets [12].

Group 1 - IMF has significantly raised China's economic growth forecast for this year by 0.8 percentage points [1] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade president met with representatives from the US-China Business Council [1] - The National Postal Administration held a symposium with express delivery companies [1] Group 2 - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that some media reports on the photovoltaic industry "anti-involution" are severely inconsistent with actual conditions [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority released a series of documents regarding the regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers, effective from August 1 [1] - Jiangsu Province's Medical Insurance Bureau announced the pricing for medical services related to brain-computer interfaces, with a non-invasive brain-computer interface adaptation fee set at 966 yuan per session [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: Driven by the continuous push of the macro "anti - involution" sentiment, the industrial silicon futures and spot prices have rebounded in resonance, and the market has gradually stabilized above 9,500 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a firm short - term trend. However, after the price rebound, the selling hedging pressure above the market may increase, which may stimulate production - cut enterprises to resume production. The actual production dynamics of silicon enterprises should be continuously monitored [1]. - Polysilicon: Since the end of June, driven by the supply - side reform expectation and spot price increase, the polysilicon market has continued to rise, reaching a new high since listing. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong consolidation in the short term, but the risk of chasing long positions is high, and cautious operation is recommended. The price transmission situation in the industrial chain and the warehouse receipt registration situation should be continuously monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.03% to 9,850 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon increased by 0.98% to 10,350 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 1.73% to 9,690 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: On July 24, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 53.5 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons compared with last week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses remained unchanged at 12 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warehouse receipts and spot parts) decreased by 1.2 tons to 41.5 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: On the supply side, large northern factories have production - cut plans with no resumption news yet. The southwest production area is about to enter the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise operation, but the resumption speed is slow. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the supply may decrease. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material factories plan to resume production in July, which will bring some demand increase. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. The operation of domestic monomer enterprises is mixed, and the overall operation has declined, further weakening the demand for industrial silicon. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 45 yuan/kg; the price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 46 yuan/kg; the price of N - type mixed material remained unchanged at 43.5 yuan/kg; the price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 44 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 7.36% to 53,765 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly, with the July output expected to approach 110,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is generally weak, with an increase in the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the price of downstream silicon wafers has followed the increase, and the transaction atmosphere has improved. However, the demand was greatly overdrawn by the rush to install in the first half of the year, and the terminal market is still weak [1].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The antimony market is expected to stabilize and rise due to anticipated export recovery, similar to trends observed in rare earths and tungsten [1] - The global antimony production from 2014 to 2024 is projected to have nearly zero growth, with China dominating global production at 70% [1][5] - Antimony demand in China has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% over the past five years, primarily driven by the photovoltaic (PV) industry [1][5] - Current visible antimony inventory is at a five-year low of 3,000-4,000 tons, with hidden inventory cleared last year, reducing future inventory pressure [1][5] Core Insights - The antimony sector is expected to benefit from a risk-on sentiment in the industrial metals market due to a liquidity easing environment [2] - Export recovery is anticipated to drive a reversal in marginal demand, with low-price optimism potentially reversing in the near term [2] - The long-term outlook for antimony remains bullish, supported by supply-demand dynamics, inventory levels, and funding factors [2][5] Marginal Demand Analysis - A marginal demand table has been constructed to predict price reversals based on PV glass export and import data [3] - The table successfully predicted price reversals in October 2024, March 2025, and May 2025, correlating with changes in export volumes and marginal demand [3][4] Long-term Bull Market Factors - Supply-side constraints are evident, with a compound growth rate of only 0.16% in global antimony mining from 2014 to 2024 [5] - The domestic TPU production in China has decreased by 17% year-on-year, with imports down 48% [5] - Demand from the PV sector is expected to remain resilient despite potential short-term declines, supported by price control policies [5] Recommended Companies - Companies to watch include Huaxi Nonferrous, Hunan Gold, and Huayu Mining, with a specific recommendation for Yuguang Gold Lead due to its low valuation and significant by-product recovery [6] - Yuguang Gold Lead has seen a doubling in small metal recovery revenue and a quadrupling in gross profit since 2019, with stable costs [6] - The company is currently valued at less than 8 times earnings, presenting a potential investment opportunity if the antimony sector fully activates [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tiantong Holdings Co., Ltd., has experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit over the past two years, primarily due to intense competition in the sapphire material market, which has adversely affected its main business profits [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 4.508 billion yuan in 2022, with a continuous decline in revenue and net profit for two consecutive years [1]. - Revenue from the sapphire crystal material business decreased by 13.63% in 2023 and by 4.67% in 2024, with gross profit margins dropping by 26.66 and 7.5 percentage points, respectively [1]. Group 2: Customer and Supplier Relationships - The company is required to disclose details about its top ten customers and suppliers over the past three years, including transaction amounts, cooperation duration, and any significant changes [2]. - The company must clarify whether there are any related party transactions with these customers and suppliers, providing detailed explanations of the transaction backgrounds and pricing rationality [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The sapphire materials market has faced increased competition, leading to a substantial impact on the company's profit margins [1]. - The company must analyze the production and sales situation of its main products in the sapphire materials business over the past three years, including cost structure and raw material price changes, to explain the variations in revenue, operating costs, and gross profit margins [2].

Group 1 - The State Council has issued a notice to enhance the implementation of the Free Trade Pilot Zone strategy, aiming to align with international high-standard economic and trade rules and create a transparent and predictable institutional environment [1] - The Ministry of Commerce expressed a consistent stance on the U.S. President's planned visit to China, emphasizing mutual respect and cooperation to promote healthy and sustainable development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations [2] - The Ministry of Commerce also reiterated its position on the trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam, opposing any agreements that sacrifice China's interests and stating that China will take necessary countermeasures to protect its rights [3] Group 2 - The National Medical Products Administration has announced measures to optimize the lifecycle supervision of high-end medical devices, focusing on AI and brain-computer interface technologies [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to address issues in the photovoltaic industry, aiming to improve product quality and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [6] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to strengthen guidance on the export of second-hand cars, promoting healthy and orderly development in this sector [7] Group 3 - Hualing Steel announced that Xintai Life Insurance has acquired a significant stake in the company through the secondary market [8] - Vanke A has applied for a loan of up to 6.249 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group and is extending part of its existing loans [9] - Changling Hydraulic announced that its controlling shareholder is planning a change in control, leading to a suspension of its stock [10] Group 4 - Huayin Electric expects to achieve a net profit of 180 to 220 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 175 to 215 million yuan compared to the same period last year [11] - Anglikon announced that a supervisor plans to reduce holdings of up to 159,000 shares, while other shareholders also plan to reduce their stakes [12]