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【计算机】稳定币驱动人民币全球支付活跃度攀升,第三方支付公司或将持续受益——稳定币专题报告之二(施鑫展/白玥)
光大证券研究· 2025-07-25 08:56
Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins are expected to drive the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) through a dual-track strategy that combines traditional and digital currencies, addressing existing liquidity bottlenecks and enhancing the global usage of the RMB [2]. Group 1: RMB Internationalization - From 2015 to 2024, the RMB's global payment share is projected to increase from approximately 2% to about 4%, with cross-border payment scale rising from 12 trillion yuan to 64 trillion yuan [2]. - Structural constraints such as capital account controls, limited offshore application scenarios, and geopolitical barriers are causing a slowdown in growth momentum for RMB internationalization [2]. Group 2: Global Cross-Border Payment Market - The global cross-border payment market is expected to reach approximately 200 trillion USD in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 6% from 2024 to 2032 [3]. - The RMB is currently the fourth most active currency globally, trailing behind the USD, EUR, and GBP, indicating significant potential for growth in its payment share [3]. Group 3: Opportunities for Third-Party Payment Institutions - The global retail cross-border payment market is projected to reach 39.9 trillion USD in 2024, with a CAGR of 6.2% from 2024 to 2032 [4]. - B2B payments dominate the payment structure, contributing 79% of the market share, while third-party payment institutions are deeply integrated into the payment service ecosystem, enhancing their growth prospects [4].