中美两国经济增速到底谁更快？这个话题放在五年前根本不算话题。 2021到2024年，国内受三年疫情和经济恢复影响，物价很疲软，每年 CPI 同比涨幅也就0.1%、0.2%、0.3%，特别低。 2001年中国加入 WTO 后，经济增速在全球主要经济体里几乎是最快的，和美国比起来优势明显，大家很容易达成共识，没什么好讨论的。 但2021年之后，不管是官方数据还是专家讨论，都能看出中国相对美国的经济增速好像慢下来了，这背后的真相是什么？ 先看数据。比较两国经济，通常要折算成统一货币，国际上常用美元。2021年，中国 GDP 折算成美元后，大概是美国的76%多，快到77%了。 这是二战后单一国家或经济体的经济规模最接近美国的水平 —— 之前美国的竞争对手，比如上世纪的苏联和日本，日本 GDP 最高时也才到美国的近一半， 苏联甚至只有美国的40%多。 能到76%、77%的比重，对美国确实有一定压力，当时国内情绪也比较高涨，大家觉得按这个节奏，中国追上甚至超过美国，可能在2030年前就能实现。 可从2021年到2024年，三年过去了。这期间经历了疫情，中国经济增速虽说还有韧性，每年公布的增长数据也比美国高。 但到2024 ...

春天的新闻编辑部里，语气变了。过去几年，美国媒体在谈中美经济时总爱拿汇率说事，仿佛把两国GDP都换算成美元就能盖棺定论。到了2025年，桌面上 的报告堆起来——国际货币基金组织和世界银行的数据直白到不容辩驳：按购买力平价计算，中国的经济规模早已超过美国，而且差距还在扩大。声名最响 的纽约时报在四月直接写出"美国退居第二"，电视节目里，福克斯与CNN主持人翻着IMF的图表，语气显得克制许多。这不是媒体心情忽然变好了，而是数 据一步步把旧叙事逼到墙角。 媒体口风的拐点 编辑部里真正改变叙事的不是口水，而是数字。2023年，中国GDP按当前汇率折算约17.89万亿美元，美国约27.36万亿，看起来中国只有65%左右。过去不 少社论就沿着这条线写"赶超还有距离"。但2021年以来，美联储连加11次息，合计525个基点，美元走强，人民币兑美元贬值超过一成。换算时数字被压 低，表面差距被夸大。美国通胀在2021到2023年平均超过7%，价格抬升推高了名义GDP，虚胖感明显。等到媒体重新把目光放到购买力平价（PPP）上， 就难以回避另一幅图景：2014年中国就按PPP规模超过美国，2023年中国PPP约32.93万亿国际美 ...

一直以来，美国在对外贸易争端中往往采取主动进攻的策略，其他国家则通常处于被迫接受的状态。但这一次，中美之间的博弈出现了意想不到的反转：作 为"全球老大"的美国，居然一再选择暂时妥协。 按理说，美国的财政工具、金融影响力和强大的军事力量，似乎应该能给它足够的底气。但在与中国的贸易较量中，美国却一次又一次作出退让，这背后到 底是为什么？ 许多人常听到一句话："美国仍然是世界第一大经济体，中国还需要追赶。"表面上看，这句话似乎没错，因为根据名义GDP的数字，美国依然领先。但如果 换一个角度来看，考虑到购买力平价和真实工业产出的因素，情况就完全不同了。 这正是中国的优势所在。中国拥有全球最大的工业生产能力，掌握了钢铁、水泥、铝、稀土、化工和新能源等关键产业，几乎形成了世界最完整的工业链。 中国的钢铁产量占全球的半壁江山，铝的产量接近六成，化工产品也占全球超过六成。这些工业基础原材料的产能决定了一个国家在全球危机中的自给自足 能力。 根据购买力平价的计算，中国的经济规模早已超过美国，也就是说，全球最大的价值创造正在东方发生。单单从虚拟经济中的数字来看，确实容易产生误 判。但是，真正决定一国综合实力的，还是在工业生产、资 ...

说起中美经济，总让人觉得像在比谁的钱包鼓囊囊，可一深挖，就发现数字背后藏着不少弯弯绕。2024年，美国GDP折合美元是29.1万亿，中国则是18.94万 亿，差距足足10万亿出头。 这数字一看，美国稳坐头把交椅，可要是换个角度，用购买力平价算账，情况就翻转了。中国早在2014年就靠这个方法超过美国，到2025年，国际货币基金 组织的预测显示，中国PPP GDP份额占全球19.68%，美国才14.75%，领先幅度拉大到10.2万国际美元。 为啥会有这种差距？汇率功不可没。2024年，人民币对美元平均汇率在7.1左右晃荡，比前几年弱了点，主要因为美联储加息，美元硬邦邦地顶上来。中国 出口企业咬牙顶着，贸易顺差还是创了纪录，近1万亿美元。 可这顺差在美元计价下，显得中国总量被压低了。要是回想2022年汇率那会儿，差距没这么夸张。现在呢，美国通胀率3.2%，中国控制在0.9%，物价稳稳 的，中国居民买东西实际能力强多了。世界银行的数据也摆在那，2024年中国PPP GDP是30.3万国际美元，美国25.4万，实体消费力不是吹的。 再说计算口径，这也挺有门道。中国侧重生产法，盯着实打实的工厂输出，2024年制造业增加值 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights China's overwhelming advantages in key economic indicators compared to the United States, suggesting that China's economic scale may be several times larger than that of the U.S. when measured by actual output and welfare [1][5]. Group 1: Industrial Strength - China contributes nearly 30% of global manufacturing value added and has maintained the world's largest industrial scale for 15 consecutive years [3]. - In 2024, China's electricity generation reached 9.45 trillion kWh, steel production was 1.384 billion tons, and automobile production was 30.2 million units, all significantly surpassing U.S. figures [5][7]. - China dominates in the production of various industrial goods, holding the top position in most categories among 504 major industrial products globally [3]. Group 2: GDP Measurement Discrepancies - The article discusses the fundamental differences in GDP calculation methods between China and the U.S., with China focusing on tangible outputs while the U.S. includes virtual economies and gray industries [3][5]. - By purchasing power parity (PPP), China's GDP surpassed that of the U.S. in 2017 and reached 124.6% of the U.S. GDP by 2023 [5][7]. Group 3: Living Standards Comparison - The article presents a comparison of living standards, indicating that the quality of life in China for 2,000 RMB is higher than that in the U.S. for 3,000 USD [5][7]. - Key factors contributing to this disparity include lower prices for fresh produce, an efficient logistics system, and abundant free digital services in China [5][7]. Group 4: Future Competitiveness - The article emphasizes that China's real challenge lies in gaining a voice in the global value chain, as the U.S. controls high-profit segments like chip design and software licensing [7]. - However, China is establishing advantages in emerging fields such as renewable energy, 5G, and quantum technology, with the internationalization of the yuan accelerating [7]. Group 5: Economic Evaluation Standards - The article argues for a new economic evaluation standard that prioritizes tangible output, welfare, and technological innovation over mere GDP figures [7]. - It concludes that the true essence of economic strength lies in the ability to provide for the population's needs and maintain a robust industrial base, rather than just statistical comparisons [7].

很多中国创业者、投资人甚至游客，第一次来到美国时都会冒出一句感慨："这地方人傻钱多！" 这句话看似调侃，背后却是真实的第一印象。美国人口只有中国的四分之一，但市场规模却巨大，人均 消费能力世界领先。更重要的是，在美国，一件普通的消费品、一个简单的订阅软件，往往能卖出远高 于中国的价格。 于是，很多人下意识地认为，美国市场是一座金矿，捡钱的机会比比皆是。但真的是这样吗？如果你真 跳进来，会发现这背后有层层复杂的现实。 美国既是全球最具吸引力的市场之一，也是竞争最激烈、门槛最高、风险最大的地方。 美国是一个非常丰富、多层次的消费市场，它的确是消费的天堂 如果从数据来看，美国确实给人"人少钱多"的直观感受。 2024年IMF与世界银行数据显示，美国GDP总量27万亿美元，人口仅3.4亿，人均GDP高达79 000美元， 而按照PPP（Purchasing Power Parity ，购买力平价）计算的人均GDP更是超过85， 000美元。相比之 下，中国虽然经济总量高达18.5万亿美元，但人均GDP只有13 000美元，即便按照PPP计算也只有23 000 美元左右。PPP的比较尤其重要，因为它更接近人们的生活体感 ...

中国经济实力登顶世界之巅？数据揭秘真相，破解"70%魔咒"！ 近日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）公布的一组重磅数据，如同一颗深水炸弹，在中国乃至全球激起千层浪。数据显示，按购买力平价 （PPP）计算，中国GDP已高达37万亿美元，远远超越美国的29万亿美元，将"世界第一经济体"的宝座收入囊中。然而，为何国内多数民众 对此"毫无感知"？美国又为何依旧"死撑"着"老大"的姿态？更令人费解的是，历史上但凡国家经济规模达到美国的70%便会遭遇无情打压， 日本和苏联的惨痛教训历历在目。而中国，却以128%的惊人比例，史无前例地打破了这一"魔咒"。我们究竟做对了什么？ 解密一：IMF悄然改写排名？中国早已是"实际"的全球第一！ 真相可能比我们想象的更为惊人。早在2016年，国际机构便已洞察到，若要真正衡量一个国家的经济实力，必须剔除通货膨胀和各国物价 水平的差异。通过购买力平价这一更贴近实际购买力的指标，中国早已被公认为全球经济的领头羊。2024年的最新数据显示，中国经济规 模已达到美国的128%。尽管美国的名义GDP数字依旧亮眼，但其经济却早已深陷通货膨胀和国债危机的泥沼，实际购买力已不复当年。 解密二："70%魔咒"威 ...

Core Viewpoint - The three pillars supporting the RMB exchange rate—China-US interest rate differential, policy risk premium, and purchasing power parity—are shifting favorably towards appreciation, with the central bank's midpoint guidance and foreign capital FOMO sentiment acting as additional catalysts [2][5]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB/USD exchange rate has experienced fluctuations this year, initially appreciating in a weak dollar environment, then depreciating due to tariff concerns, and recently regaining upward momentum [4]. - The current trend shows a convergence of the RMB midpoint, onshore, and offshore rates towards the 7.0 level, supported by both fundamental factors and event-driven catalysts [4][5]. Group 2: Interest Rate Differential - The narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential has been a fundamental basis for the RMB's appreciation over the past three months [6]. - Since July, the yield on China's 10-year government bonds has risen over 20 basis points to above 1.8%, while the US 10-year Treasury yield has decreased from 4.5% to around 4.2%, leading to a significant narrowing of the nominal interest rate differential by nearly 50 basis points [7]. - Adjusting for inflation, the actual interest rate differential has further narrowed, with China's low inflation levels contrasting with a slight rebound in US inflation [7][10]. Group 3: Policy Risk Premium - The policy risk premium for Chinese assets is decreasing, while it is rising for US assets due to concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve [10]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential for a more stable RMB asset environment are contributing to a long-term reduction in China's sovereign risk premium [10]. Group 4: Purchasing Power Parity - The RMB is currently undervalued against the USD based on purchasing power parity (PPP), with the IMF indicating that 1 USD's purchasing power is equivalent to approximately 3.4 RMB [12]. - The long-standing undervaluation is attributed to limited capital account openness and concerns over China's economic transition risks, but the door for RMB revaluation is opening [12]. Group 5: Catalysts for RMB Appreciation - The central bank's midpoint rate has been set unusually strong, indicating an official expectation for RMB appreciation [18]. - Recent reports suggest the potential introduction of a RMB stablecoin, which could enhance the internationalization of the RMB and increase its attractiveness for foreign investment [20]. - Foreign capital is increasingly entering the A-share market, with significant inflows observed in August, driven by a shift in sentiment from trading to investing in Chinese assets [24]. - Export companies are accelerating their currency conversion as the cost of holding USD rises, contributing to RMB appreciation [25]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The weak dollar environment is expected to continue supporting RMB appreciation, although factors such as declining export expectations and the need for domestic demand recovery may influence the pace of appreciation [28].

Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB/USD exchange rate has shown a fluctuating upward trend since the beginning of the year, with a slight appreciation in early 2023 due to a weaker dollar, followed by a rapid depreciation in April due to tariff concerns, and a return to appreciation from May onwards[2] - As of late August, the RMB has entered a strong appreciation phase, with the onshore and offshore rates converging towards the 7.0 level, indicating support from both fundamental and policy factors[2][5] Key Drivers of RMB Appreciation - The narrowing of the China-US 10-year Treasury yield spread by nearly 50 basis points over the past three months has provided a basis for recent RMB appreciation, driven by a mild increase in China's risk-free interest rates and a decline in US Treasury yields[7] - Changes in policy risk premiums have favored the RMB, as rising uncertainty in US fiscal and monetary policies contrasts with China's efforts to reduce sovereign risk premiums through reforms[6][14] - The long-standing undervaluation of the RMB is changing, with IMF data indicating that 1 USD has a purchasing power equivalent to 3.4 RMB, suggesting the current exchange rate is undervalued by over 50%[17][20] Catalysts for Recent Appreciation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released strong appreciation expectations through its midpoint rate, influenced by geopolitical negotiations and domestic stability considerations[3][31] - The bullish trend in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 8% and the ChiNext Index over 20% in August, has led to increased foreign investment and demand for RMB[40] Future Outlook - The weak dollar environment is expected to continue supporting RMB appreciation, but factors such as weak export expectations and the need for domestic demand recovery suggest a stable appreciation pace is more beneficial for fundamental recovery[47] - The importance of the RMB against a basket of currencies is anticipated to rise, reflecting the need for a more balanced exchange rate strategy[49]

Economic Comparison - In 2024, China's GDP is projected at 134.9 trillion yuan (approximately 18.94 trillion USD), while the US GDP is expected to reach 29.2 trillion USD, widening the gap to 10 trillion USD, with China's share decreasing from 67% to 65% [1] - The US nominal GDP growth is significantly influenced by high inflation, with a cumulative price increase of 21.2% over the past four years, while China's CPI only increased by 0.2% in 2024, indicating a more stable economic environment [3][4] Statistical Methodology - The US includes imputed rent in its GDP calculations, which allowed it to "gain" 610 billion USD in Q1 2025, a method not applicable in China, which uses a production-based approach for GDP accounting [4] - The difference in statistical methodologies highlights the disparity in economic reporting and the potential for manipulation of GDP figures [4] Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) - According to the International Monetary Fund, China's PPP GDP is projected to reach 39.44 trillion international dollars by 2025, surpassing the US's 30.34 trillion international dollars by 30% [6] - The purchasing power of consumers in China is significantly higher, with the ability to buy more goods for the same amount of money compared to the US, indicating a stronger domestic economy [6] Technological Competition - The economic rivalry is increasingly focused on technological advancements, with China investing heavily in hard technology, achieving significant milestones in 5G, quantum computing, and nuclear fusion [9] - In contrast, US R&D investment intensity has decreased, while military spending has reached a record high of 886 billion USD, indicating a shift in focus from innovation to defense [9] Crisis Management and Economic Resilience - In Q4 2024, China's economic growth accelerated to 5.4%, driven by high-tech manufacturing, while US corporate investment declined by 2.2% [11] - China's proactive approach to managing real estate bubbles and maintaining foreign exchange reserves of 3.2 trillion USD contrasts sharply with the US's rising commercial real estate delinquency rates [11]