机构：国信证券 研究员：曾光/张鲁 FY2026Q2 收入预计提速，全年维持稳健展望，并更新股东回报计划。展望FY2026Q2，公司预计净营 收同增9%-12%。同时维持FY2026 全年净营收同比增长5%-10%的指引。股东回报方面，宣布一项为期 三年的股东回报计划，拟将前一财年归母净利润不低于50%用于回馈股东。为实施2026 财年的回报计 划，董事会已批准派发总额约1.9 亿美元的现金股息。以及一项未来12 个月内最多3 亿美元的股份回购 计划，金额合计达2025 财年归母净利的132%。 以最新市值计算，公司此轮股东回报计划对应股东回报率约为5.1%。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、政策趋严、业务渗透率提升缓慢、股东减持等。 投资建议：综合公司清晰的品质提升战略、较积极的业绩展望、具有吸引力的股东回报，我们维持 其"优于大市"评级。我们认为公司"提升能力与品质"的核心战略与行业由"疫后供给缺失"转向"质量优 先"的趋势相符，成效体现在经调经营利润率稳步修复与K12 业务学生留存率提升上，为未来收入增长 蓄力。我们维持公司2026-2028 财年经调整净利润4.3/4.8/5.3 亿美元的预测，对应PE 分别 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) due to its clear quality enhancement strategy, positive performance outlook, and attractive shareholder returns [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 FY2026, the company achieved revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding the previous forecast of 5% [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, up 11.3%, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin increasing by 1 percentage point to 22% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was $258 million, down 1.6%, primarily due to the impact of dividend withholding tax [1] - Deferred revenue at the end of the period was $1.907 billion, reflecting a 10% increase [1] Group 2: Business Segment Performance - K9 education new business revenue grew by 15%, with non-academic training participants at 530,000, up 10%, and paid active users for learning machines at 452,000, up 40% [2] - High school training revenue increased by 7%, affected by scheduling and regional discounts, with expectations for improved K12 business revenue in FY26Q2 [2] - Study abroad training and consulting revenue grew by 1% and 2%, respectively, benefiting from a favorable external environment and the company's focus on non-U.S. countries and younger demographics [2] - University student business revenue increased by 14%, outperforming the previous expectation of 10% growth [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Shareholder Returns - For FY2026Q2, the company expects net revenue growth of 9%-12%, maintaining a full-year guidance of 5%-10% growth [3] - A three-year shareholder return plan has been announced, with plans to distribute at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders [3] - The board has approved a total cash dividend of approximately $190 million and a share buyback plan of up to $300 million within the next 12 months, totaling 132% of the FY2025 net profit [3] - The current shareholder return plan corresponds to an estimated return rate of about 5.1% based on the latest market capitalization [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) due to its clear quality enhancement strategy, positive performance outlook, and attractive shareholder returns [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 FY2026, the company achieved revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding the previous forecast of 5% [2] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, up 11.3%, with a Non-GAAP operating margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 22% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was $258 million, down 1.6%, primarily due to the impact of dividend withholding tax [2] Business Segment Performance - K9 education new business revenue grew by 15%, with non-subject training participants reaching 530,000, an increase of 10% [2] - The number of active paid users for learning machines increased by 40% to 452,000, indicating strong brand appeal [2] - High school training revenue increased by 7%, affected by scheduling and regional discounts [3] - Study abroad and consultation revenue grew by 1% and 2% respectively, benefiting from improved external conditions [3] - University business revenue rose by 14%, outperforming the previous expectation of 10% growth [3] Future Outlook - For Q2 FY2026, the company expects revenue growth of 9%-12% and maintains a full-year revenue growth guidance of 5%-10% [4] - A three-year shareholder return plan has been announced, with plans to distribute at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders [4] - The board has approved a cash dividend of approximately $190 million and a share buyback plan of up to $300 million within the next 12 months, totaling 132% of the previous fiscal year's net profit [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance in FY2025Q4, with non-selective business growth exceeding management guidance, but overall profitability impacted by a one-time goodwill impairment in the kindergarten segment [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - FY2025Q4 revenue reached $1.243 billion, a 9.4% increase year-over-year, with non-selective revenue at $1.089 billion, growing 18.7%, surpassing the previous guidance of 10-13% [1] - Operating profit showed a loss of $8.67 million, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of $60.3 million in the kindergarten business; excluding this, the non-GAAP operating profit margin for non-selective business was 6.5%, up 4.1 percentage points [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was $7.1 million, down 73.7%; however, excluding one-time factors, the non-GAAP net profit was $98.08 million, reflecting a 59.4% increase [1] Group 2: Business Segment Growth - K9 education new business grew by 32.5%, maintaining rapid growth; high school training revenue increased by 24%, supported by resilient supply-demand dynamics [2] - Study abroad training and consulting revenues grew by 14.6% and 8.2%, respectively, although consumer spending pressure and tightening study abroad environments in some countries remain challenges [2] - E-commerce revenue declined approximately 10% year-over-year due to the divestment of "With Huixing," though the quarter-on-quarter decline has improved [2] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The company achieved a gross margin of 54.2%, up 1.9 percentage points; management expense ratio remained stable at 33.0%, while sales expense ratio decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 17.0%, indicating ongoing operational efficiency improvements [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - For FY2026Q1, the company expects revenue growth of 2-5%, which is below previous expectations due to a slowdown in study abroad business growth and other educational training segments [3] - A three-year shareholder return plan was announced, aiming to return 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-2027 have been lowered to $430 million and $480 million, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 24% and 29% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's education business showed strong growth in FY2025Q4, with non-selective business revenue increasing by 18.7%, surpassing management's guidance [1][8] - For FY2026Q1, the company expects revenue growth of 2-5%, which is below previous expectations due to a slowdown in study abroad business growth and other educational services [3][18] - The company has announced a three-year shareholder return plan, intending to return 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks [3][19] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY2025Q4, the company reported total revenue of $1.243 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, with non-selective revenue at $1.089 billion, up 18.7% [1][8] - The operating profit was a loss of $8.67 million, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of $60.3 million in the kindergarten business [1][8] - The deferred revenue at the end of the period was $1.954 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1][8] Business Segments - K9 education new business grew by 32.5%, while high school training revenue increased by 24% [2][9] - The study abroad training and consulting revenue grew by 14.6% and 8.2%, respectively, but faced challenges due to declining consumer spending and tightening study abroad environments in some countries [2][9] - E-commerce revenue decreased by approximately 10% due to the divestment of a specific business, although the decline has improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis [2][9] Operational Efficiency - The company's gross margin for FY2025Q4 was 54.2%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [2][16] - The management expense ratio remained stable at 33.0%, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 17.0% [2][16] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a cautious revenue outlook for FY2026, with expected growth of 5-10% for the fiscal year [3][18] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 have been lowered to $430 million and $483 million, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 24% and 29% [3][19] - The company plans to continue improving operational efficiency and profitability while enhancing investor preference through the new shareholder return plan [3][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's education business showed strong growth in FY2025Q4, with non-selective business revenue increasing by 18.7%, surpassing management's guidance [1][8] - For FY2026Q1, the company expects a cautious revenue growth of 2-5%, primarily due to a slowdown in study abroad business growth and other educational training services [3][18] - The company has announced a three-year shareholder return plan, intending to return 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks [3][19] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY2025Q4, the company reported total revenue of $1.243 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, with non-selective revenue at $1.089 billion, up 18.7% [1][8] - The operating profit was a loss of $8.67 million, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of $60.3 million in the kindergarten business [1][8] - The deferred revenue at the end of the period was $1.954 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1][8] Business Segments - K9 education new business grew by 32.5%, while high school training revenue increased by 24% [2][9] - The study abroad training and consulting revenue grew by 14.6% and 8.2%, respectively, although consumer spending power is declining [2][9] - The e-commerce revenue decreased by approximately 10% due to the divestment of a specific business, but the decline has improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis [2][9] Operational Efficiency - The gross margin for FY2025Q4 was 54.2%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [2][16] - The management expense ratio remained stable at 33.0%, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 17.0% [2][16] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 5-10% for FY2026, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and profitability [3][19] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 have been lowered to $430 million and $483 million, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 24% and 29% [3][19] - The company plans to increase its network of schools and learning centers by 10-15% in FY2026 [2][9]