新东方公布2QFY26 业绩（以下简称Q2）：总收入11.91 亿美元，yoy+14.7%，增速超指引上限 机构：华泰证券 研究员：夏路路/詹博/郑裕佳 （12%）；调整后经营利润0.89 亿美元，对应OPM 为7.5%，同比提升4.7pct，大幅超过彭博一致预期 （yoy+2pct）。 公司指引3QFY26/FY26 全年美元口径总收入同比增长11~14%/8~12%（彭博一致预期12%/10%），反映 教学质量提升、需求回归和汇率顺风的影响。 我们认为公司核心K12 业务增长稳健，降本增效及多元化发展下集团利润率有望逐步改善，长期有望为 股东创造持续稳定的回报，维持"买入"。 K12 业务兑现秋季提速，经营利润率提升超预期分业务看，随着秋季K12 行业回归正价竞争，头部品牌 机构增长环比改善，教育属性新业务收入在Q2 同比增速加速至21.6%；大学生及成人教育收入同比增 长12.8%（Q1:14.4%），增速稳健；留学考培收入同比增长4.1%，留学咨询收入同比下降约3%，逆境 中展现较强韧性。得益于运营杠杆的优化、成本控制措施的逐步落地，以及东方甄选的盈利贡献，Q2 公司调整后经营利润率同比提升4.7pc ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of $1.191 billion for Q2FY26, representing a year-over-year increase of 14.7%, exceeding the guidance upper limit of 12% [1]. - Adjusted operating profit for Q2 was $89 million, with an operating profit margin (OPM) of 7.5%, which is a year-over-year increase of 4.7 percentage points, significantly surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations [1][2]. - The company expects total revenue growth of 11-14% for Q3FY26 and 8-12% for the full fiscal year, reflecting improvements in teaching quality, returning demand, and favorable exchange rates [1][2]. - The core K12 business is showing robust growth, and the company is expected to gradually improve profit margins through cost reduction and efficiency enhancements, aiming to provide stable returns to shareholders in the long term [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2FY26, the company achieved a revenue of $1.191 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 14.7% [1]. - The adjusted operating profit margin increased to 7.5%, which is a 4.7 percentage point improvement from the previous year [2]. - The company has slightly raised its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY26, FY27, and FY28 to $578 million, $681 million, and $756 million, respectively [8][4]. Business Segments - The K12 segment is experiencing a return to normal pricing competition, with new business revenues growing by 21.6% year-over-year in Q2 [2]. - The revenue from university and adult education increased by 12.8%, while study abroad training revenue grew by 4.1% [2]. - The company plans to merge its study abroad consulting and training businesses by the end of FY26, which is expected to streamline operations and enhance efficiency [3]. Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company is set at $65.43 per share, based on an 18x FY26 PE ratio, reflecting the stability of its core business and leading shareholder returns in the industry [4][8]. - The previous target price was $67.31, indicating a slight adjustment based on updated profit forecasts [4][8].

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of $1.523 billion in Q1 FY2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding the previous forecast range of 5% [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, up 11.3%, with a Non-GAAP operating margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 22% [1] - Deferred revenue stood at $1.907 billion, reflecting a 10% increase [1] Business Performance - The study abroad and university student segments outperformed expectations, while K12 business outlook remains positive [2] - K9 education new business revenue grew by 15%, with non-subject training participants at 530,000, up 10%, and active paid users for learning machines at 452,000, up 40% [2] - High school training revenue increased by 7%, impacted by scheduling and regional discounts; K12 business revenue is expected to accelerate in FY26Q2 [2] - Study abroad exam preparation and consulting revenue grew by 1% and 2% respectively, benefiting from improved external conditions [2] - University student business revenue increased by 14%, surpassing the previous growth expectation of 10% [2] Future Outlook - For FY2026Q2, the company expects net revenue growth of 9%-12%, maintaining a full-year guidance of 5%-10% growth [3] - A three-year shareholder return plan was announced, with plans to distribute approximately $190 million in cash dividends and a share buyback plan of up to $300 million [3] - The shareholder return plan corresponds to an estimated shareholder return rate of about 5.1% based on the latest market capitalization [3] Investment Recommendation - The company maintains a "better than market" rating due to its clear quality enhancement strategy, positive performance outlook, and attractive shareholder returns [4] - The core strategy of "enhancing capabilities and quality" aligns with the industry's shift towards prioritizing quality post-pandemic, reflected in the steady recovery of adjusted operating profit margins and improved K12 student retention rates [4] - Forecasts for adjusted net profits for FY2026-2028 are $430 million, $480 million, and $530 million, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23, 20, and 18 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) due to its clear quality enhancement strategy, positive performance outlook, and attractive shareholder returns [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 FY2026, the company achieved revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding the previous forecast of 5% [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, up 11.3%, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin increasing by 1 percentage point to 22% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was $258 million, down 1.6%, primarily due to the impact of dividend withholding tax [1] - Deferred revenue at the end of the period was $1.907 billion, reflecting a 10% increase [1] Group 2: Business Segment Performance - K9 education new business revenue grew by 15%, with non-academic training participants at 530,000, up 10%, and paid active users for learning machines at 452,000, up 40% [2] - High school training revenue increased by 7%, affected by scheduling and regional discounts, with expectations for improved K12 business revenue in FY26Q2 [2] - Study abroad training and consulting revenue grew by 1% and 2%, respectively, benefiting from a favorable external environment and the company's focus on non-U.S. countries and younger demographics [2] - University student business revenue increased by 14%, outperforming the previous expectation of 10% growth [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Shareholder Returns - For FY2026Q2, the company expects net revenue growth of 9%-12%, maintaining a full-year guidance of 5%-10% growth [3] - A three-year shareholder return plan has been announced, with plans to distribute at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders [3] - The board has approved a total cash dividend of approximately $190 million and a share buyback plan of up to $300 million within the next 12 months, totaling 132% of the FY2025 net profit [3] - The current shareholder return plan corresponds to an estimated return rate of about 5.1% based on the latest market capitalization [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) due to its clear quality enhancement strategy, positive performance outlook, and attractive shareholder returns [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 FY2026, the company achieved revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding the previous forecast of 5% [2] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, up 11.3%, with a Non-GAAP operating margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 22% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was $258 million, down 1.6%, primarily due to the impact of dividend withholding tax [2] Business Segment Performance - K9 education new business revenue grew by 15%, with non-subject training participants reaching 530,000, an increase of 10% [2] - The number of active paid users for learning machines increased by 40% to 452,000, indicating strong brand appeal [2] - High school training revenue increased by 7%, affected by scheduling and regional discounts [3] - Study abroad and consultation revenue grew by 1% and 2% respectively, benefiting from improved external conditions [3] - University business revenue rose by 14%, outperforming the previous expectation of 10% growth [3] Future Outlook - For Q2 FY2026, the company expects revenue growth of 9%-12% and maintains a full-year revenue growth guidance of 5%-10% [4] - A three-year shareholder return plan has been announced, with plans to distribute at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders [4] - The board has approved a cash dividend of approximately $190 million and a share buyback plan of up to $300 million within the next 12 months, totaling 132% of the previous fiscal year's net profit [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance in FY2025Q4, with non-selective business growth exceeding management guidance, but overall profitability impacted by a one-time goodwill impairment in the kindergarten segment [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - FY2025Q4 revenue reached $1.243 billion, a 9.4% increase year-over-year, with non-selective revenue at $1.089 billion, growing 18.7%, surpassing the previous guidance of 10-13% [1] - Operating profit showed a loss of $8.67 million, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of $60.3 million in the kindergarten business; excluding this, the non-GAAP operating profit margin for non-selective business was 6.5%, up 4.1 percentage points [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was $7.1 million, down 73.7%; however, excluding one-time factors, the non-GAAP net profit was $98.08 million, reflecting a 59.4% increase [1] Group 2: Business Segment Growth - K9 education new business grew by 32.5%, maintaining rapid growth; high school training revenue increased by 24%, supported by resilient supply-demand dynamics [2] - Study abroad training and consulting revenues grew by 14.6% and 8.2%, respectively, although consumer spending pressure and tightening study abroad environments in some countries remain challenges [2] - E-commerce revenue declined approximately 10% year-over-year due to the divestment of "With Huixing," though the quarter-on-quarter decline has improved [2] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The company achieved a gross margin of 54.2%, up 1.9 percentage points; management expense ratio remained stable at 33.0%, while sales expense ratio decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 17.0%, indicating ongoing operational efficiency improvements [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - For FY2026Q1, the company expects revenue growth of 2-5%, which is below previous expectations due to a slowdown in study abroad business growth and other educational training segments [3] - A three-year shareholder return plan was announced, aiming to return 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-2027 have been lowered to $430 million and $480 million, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 24% and 29% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's education business showed strong growth in FY2025Q4, with non-selective business revenue increasing by 18.7%, surpassing management's guidance [1][8] - For FY2026Q1, the company expects revenue growth of 2-5%, which is below previous expectations due to a slowdown in study abroad business growth and other educational services [3][18] - The company has announced a three-year shareholder return plan, intending to return 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks [3][19] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY2025Q4, the company reported total revenue of $1.243 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, with non-selective revenue at $1.089 billion, up 18.7% [1][8] - The operating profit was a loss of $8.67 million, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of $60.3 million in the kindergarten business [1][8] - The deferred revenue at the end of the period was $1.954 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1][8] Business Segments - K9 education new business grew by 32.5%, while high school training revenue increased by 24% [2][9] - The study abroad training and consulting revenue grew by 14.6% and 8.2%, respectively, but faced challenges due to declining consumer spending and tightening study abroad environments in some countries [2][9] - E-commerce revenue decreased by approximately 10% due to the divestment of a specific business, although the decline has improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis [2][9] Operational Efficiency - The company's gross margin for FY2025Q4 was 54.2%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [2][16] - The management expense ratio remained stable at 33.0%, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 17.0% [2][16] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a cautious revenue outlook for FY2026, with expected growth of 5-10% for the fiscal year [3][18] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 have been lowered to $430 million and $483 million, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 24% and 29% [3][19] - The company plans to continue improving operational efficiency and profitability while enhancing investor preference through the new shareholder return plan [3][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's education business showed strong growth in FY2025Q4, with non-selective business revenue increasing by 18.7%, surpassing management's guidance [1][8] - For FY2026Q1, the company expects a cautious revenue growth of 2-5%, primarily due to a slowdown in study abroad business growth and other educational training services [3][18] - The company has announced a three-year shareholder return plan, intending to return 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks [3][19] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY2025Q4, the company reported total revenue of $1.243 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, with non-selective revenue at $1.089 billion, up 18.7% [1][8] - The operating profit was a loss of $8.67 million, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of $60.3 million in the kindergarten business [1][8] - The deferred revenue at the end of the period was $1.954 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1][8] Business Segments - K9 education new business grew by 32.5%, while high school training revenue increased by 24% [2][9] - The study abroad training and consulting revenue grew by 14.6% and 8.2%, respectively, although consumer spending power is declining [2][9] - The e-commerce revenue decreased by approximately 10% due to the divestment of a specific business, but the decline has improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis [2][9] Operational Efficiency - The gross margin for FY2025Q4 was 54.2%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [2][16] - The management expense ratio remained stable at 33.0%, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 17.0% [2][16] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 5-10% for FY2026, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and profitability [3][19] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 have been lowered to $430 million and $483 million, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 24% and 29% [3][19] - The company plans to increase its network of schools and learning centers by 10-15% in FY2026 [2][9]