大宗商品套期保值业务
Search documents
建行江苏省分行:大宗商品业务风险预警模型研究——以江苏地区油脂加工行业为例
Zhong Guo Jin Rong Xin Xi Wang· 2025-09-15 08:40
Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the oil processing industry in Jiangsu, focusing on hedging strategies and risk warning models for clients, providing a reference for other bulk commodity industries [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The oil processing industry includes three main categories: palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, all of which have similar and mature industrial chain models [1] - The global oilseed and oil industry primarily adopts a mature pricing model based on basis trading, using the "basis + corresponding month futures price" method for sales contract pricing [1] Group 2: Hedging Strategies - Procurement hedging includes "fixed price" and "point pricing" methods, with different procurement methods corresponding to different hedging strategies [2] - Sales hedging in domestic oil processing enterprises mainly adopts point pricing, allowing downstream customers to engage in point pricing procurement at any time under long-term purchase agreements [3] - Inventory basis hedging involves the difference between spot prices and futures prices, where companies cannot fully lock in price fluctuation risks due to various influencing factors [4] Group 3: Profit Sources - The industry has two main sources of profit: 1. Stable risk-free profit through point price contracts and sell hedging, locking in profits in advance [5] 2. Uncertain basis gains or losses, where favorable basis movements can yield profits, while adverse movements may increase inventory costs [5] Group 4: Future Development Strategies - The company should focus on key industries and gradually extend multi-industry hedging strategies, with a current coverage of 40 trading categories in traditional and strategic industries [6] - Collaboration between parent and subsidiary companies is essential to enhance risk control levels, utilizing AI technology to develop various commodity warning systems and improve the professional skills of product and client managers [7]