证券研究报告·公司点评报告·休闲食品 盐津铺子（002847） 开启新征程，海阔凭鱼跃 2025 年 12 月 12 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,115 | 5,304 | 5,936 | 7,050 | 8,165 | | 同比（%） | 42.22 | 28.89 | 11.92 | 18.76 | 15.81 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 505.77 | 639.95 | 800.12 | 1,005.50 | 1,223.36 | | 同比（%） | 67.76 | 26.53 | 25.03 | 25.67 | 21.67 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.85 | 2.35 | 2.93 | 3.69 | 4.49 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 37.46 | 29.60 | 23.68 | 18.84 | 15.49 | 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [1][4][5] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a transformation driven by diverse consumer demands and supply upgrades, with structural opportunities expected to persist in 2026 despite a moderate recovery in overall demand [2][29] - The report highlights the importance of adapting to new retail channels and consumer preferences, emphasizing the need for product differentiation and quality enhancement [2][29] Summary by Sections Review of 2025 - The overall industry performance was weak, with a decline of 5.3% in the food and beverage sector, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 19.4 percentage points [1][25] - Consumer confidence remained low, with urban residents' disposable income growth slowing to 4.4% year-on-year [1][12] - The soft drink sector maintained relative strength, while the snack industry showed mixed results, with leading companies continuing to expand [1][20] Outlook for 2026 - Structural opportunities are anticipated, with a focus on channel diversification and supply upgrades [2][29] - The report predicts a shift in consumer preferences towards high-quality, reasonably priced products, with an emphasis on additional value attributes such as convenience and health [2][29] - The beverage sector is expected to benefit from the development of non-traditional channels and the introduction of differentiated products [33][47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that enhance product quality and service, such as Baba Foods and Wanchen Group [3][4] - It highlights high-growth categories with health attributes, recommending companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [3][4] - The report also identifies companies with strong performance recovery potential, such as Anjijia Foods and Yihai International [3][4] Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Companies such as Yanjing Beer, Weilong Delicious, and Yili Group are rated as "Outperform" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [4][5] - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][3][9] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 1.49 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 230 million yuan, up 33.5% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 220 million yuan, reflecting a 45.0% increase year-on-year [1][8] - The revenue growth in Q3 slowed down due to proactive adjustments in the channel structure, particularly a reduction in low-margin product sales through e-commerce channels. The core product, "Big Devil" konjac, continues to show strong growth, expected to double its contribution [1][8] - The company has focused on improving operational quality, achieving a gross margin increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year despite high raw material costs. The net profit margin reached 15.6%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [2][8] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to emphasize growth quality, particularly in its core product's multi-channel layout and brand building. The "Big Devil" brand has established strong market recognition and has significant room for penetration in offline channels [3][9] - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downwards to 6.01 billion, 7.00 billion, and 8.01 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.4%, 16.4%, and 14.4%. The net profit forecasts have been slightly increased to 830 million, 1.02 billion, and 1.27 billion yuan, with growth rates of 29.7%, 23.0%, and 24.2% respectively [3][9][11] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 23, 19, and 15 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [3][12]