Group 1 - The industrial non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant growth, with the industrial non-ferrous index rising by 6.20% as of 13:09, driven by stocks such as Silver Holdings, China Aluminum, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Yun Aluminum reaching their daily limit [1] - Global copper supply disruptions are occurring, with key roads at Chile's Escondida and Zaldívar copper mines blocked by unions, and Mantoverde copper mine halting production due to strikes. Lundin Mining has also lowered its 2026 copper production guidance [1] - A report from S&P Global Research indicates that new demand vectors from AI and defense sectors will drive global copper demand to increase by approximately 50% by 2040, leading to a significant widening of the copper supply gap if recycling and new mine development do not keep pace [1] Group 2 - London aluminum prices have reached their highest level in nearly four years, influenced by comments from former President Trump regarding the dollar's performance, which has contributed to a bullish sentiment in the base metals market [1] - The weakening U.S. dollar has enhanced the attractiveness of commodities priced in dollars, while declining real interest rates have reduced the holding costs of precious metals, serving as a core driver for price increases [1] - Increased global geopolitical uncertainty is elevating the strategic resource status of gold, silver, and copper, leading to a significant influx of safe-haven funds into the metal markets, providing strong support for prices [1]

中国银河证券认为，2025年有色金属行业确立新一轮上行周期，2026年宏观预期修复、供应链扰动、流 动性宽松等逻辑将持续推动商品价格上涨与企业盈利能力提升，延续景气上行行情。 2025年12月19日，有色金属概念走强。截至13:44，中证工业有色金属主题指数强势上涨2.53%，成分股 云铝股份领涨，金诚信、天山铝业、锡业股份等个股跟涨。 消息面上，美国CPI数据超预期放缓。受此影响，美国联邦基金利率期货显示，美联储1月份降息的可 能性从26.6%上升至28.8%。交易员押注明年美联储将降息62个基点。 国内政策层面，节能降碳行动持续深化，国务院《2024-2025年节能降碳行动方案》明确优化有色金属 产能布局，从严控制铜、氧化铝等冶炼新增产能，大力发展再生金属产业，要求2025年底再生金属供应 占比达24%以上、铝水直接合金化比例提高到90%以上；同时推进行业节能改造，明确电解铝、铜铅锌 冶炼等领域能效标杆水平目标。 华创证券指出，美联储"鹰派"降息落地后铝价短暂走弱，但全球铝库存总体小幅下行，LME+国内铝库 存总计维持120-125万吨，安全库存维持低位。海外项目因电力问题减产叠加印尼增量释放缓慢，未来 ...

2025年12月5日，有色金属概念表现活跃，再度领涨市场。截至10:18，中证工业有色金属主题指数强势 上涨1.40%，盘中涨超2%，冲击3连涨。成分股南山铝业领涨，神火股份、电投能源、中国铝业等个股 跟涨。 消息面上，美国11月ADP就业人数减3.2万人，为2023年3月以来最大降幅，预期增1万人，前值从增4.2 万人修正为增4.7万人。据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率接近90%，推动铜、铝 等工业金属价格走强。此外，智利国有铜业公司向美国客户提供的铜溢价创历史新高，叠加全球铜矿供 应扰动频发，LME铜价快速上行并创历史新高。 机构分析，短期而言，美联储降息决议与国内下游开工数据是核心观察点，铜价88000元/吨支撑与锌价 22850元/吨阻力位将成多空博弈关键，锡、镍需警惕高价对需求的抑制作用。中长期来看，三大变量决 定行业走向：一是美联储政策路径与美元趋势；二是国内稳增长政策对工业需求的拉动效果；三是海外 矿山供应扰动与国内产能调控力度。 银河证券表示，中国铜原料联合谈判小组（CSPT）达成共识决定2026年度降低矿铜产能负荷10%以 上，改善铜精矿供需基本面。在2026年铜冶炼 ...