Summary of Li Ning's Q3 2025 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Ning - **Date**: Q3 2025 Earnings Call Key Points Industry Performance - Li Ning's overall channel revenue in Q3 decreased by mid-single digits year-on-year, with a weakening trend observed month by month [2][4][6] - The retail environment remains challenging, with expectations for Q4 to be below prior forecasts [2][8] Financial Metrics - As of the end of Q3, the number of main brand stores increased by 15 to 6,132, while direct-operated stores decreased by 46 [2][4] - The company maintained its annual store opening target but adjusted the net opening/closing numbers for various store types [2][5] Sales and Discounts - Discounts across all channels deepened year-on-year, particularly in direct and e-commerce channels, with offline discounts reaching mid-60% levels [2][6] - The company anticipates that the overall terminal performance will remain below expectations, posing challenges to achieving annual financial guidance [2][8] Product Categories - Pressure in Q3 primarily stemmed from basketball and sports lifestyle categories, with running and fitness growth slowing down [2][15] - Children's products and women's products showed better growth compared to men's products, but overall consumer spending remains weak [2][15] Marketing and Promotions - Li Ning plans to leverage upcoming events, including the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics, to enhance brand visibility and support sales growth [4][10][11] - The company is focusing on a comprehensive marketing matrix to support business development and manage costs effectively [3][16] Inventory Management - The company has increased inventory levels in anticipation of the double holiday and "Double Eleven" shopping festival, maintaining a healthy inventory turnover ratio of 4-5 months [6][9] - Despite the increase in inventory, Li Ning aims to control discounts to maintain profitability [9][23] Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment remains intense, with brands focusing on balancing revenue and inventory, leading to increased discounting pressure [8][20] - Li Ning is committed to enhancing its core competitiveness in running and basketball while addressing the challenges posed by competitors like Nike [8][20][21] Future Outlook - The company is currently formulating its 2026 budget, expecting moderate growth in domestic consumption but acknowledging ongoing business pressures [14] - Li Ning's long-term strategy includes focusing on high-value and functional products, as well as tapping into emerging sports trends [14][27] New Product Launches - Upcoming product launches include new running shoes featuring advanced water-repellent technology and collaborations with popular franchises [18][19] - The company is also enhancing its outdoor product line and integrating elements of traditional Chinese aesthetics into its offerings [21][22] Conclusion - Li Ning is navigating a challenging retail environment with strategic marketing initiatives and product innovations aimed at sustaining growth and enhancing brand equity [27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for Li Ning, with a current stock price of 16.24 HKD and a corresponding PE of 15.5X for 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights - Li Ning's overall revenue growth in Q2 2025 is low single-digit, with pressure on discounts due to weak consumer demand and intensified market competition. The management has kept the revenue guidance for 2025 flat, but profitability is expected to decline. The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 2.38 billion, 2.53 billion, and 2.72 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of -21%, 7%, and 7% respectively [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The expected revenue for Li Ning for 2025-2027 is 28.74 billion, 29.96 billion, and 31.11 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 0%, 4%, and 4% [2][8]. - The projected net profit for the same period is 2.38 billion, 2.53 billion, and 2.72 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of -21%, 7%, and 7% [2][8]. Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, the revenue growth by category shows high single-digit growth in running and fitness, flat performance in sports lifestyle, and a 20% decline in basketball. Outdoor and smaller categories are performing well [1][7]. - The sales performance by channel indicates that lower-tier markets are outperforming higher-tier markets, with outlet stores performing better than full-price stores [1][7]. Financial Metrics - The total market capitalization of Li Ning is 42 billion HKD, with a total share capital of 2,585 million shares and a net asset value per share of 10.1 HKD [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) is reported at 11.5%, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 26.9% [3][11]. Inventory and Discount Pressure - Due to the slowdown in terminal revenue growth and the need for inventory clearance, there is significant discount pressure in Q2 2025, although inventory levels are currently considered healthy [7][10].