25 年主品牌增速短期承压的预期基本充分反映在股价调整之中，我们预计26 年开始主品牌有望逐步改 善。公司今年8 月以来股价持续调整的主要原因之一是市场对安踏主品牌营收增速的一再下调。伴随安 踏品牌季度流水增速从Q1 的高单到Q2 的低单和Q3 的持续低单，市场对主品牌全年营收预期也从最初 的高单下调至中单再到三季度以后的低单。但我们认为短期的承压有消费低迷的整体因素，也有公司对 线下渠道优化和电商团队架构调整的短期冲击，后续随着磨合期的度过，公司26 年起主品牌经营有望 逐步改善，也将为公司估值恢复提供动力。 Fila 保持稳健增长，以迪桑特和可隆为首的其他品牌有望延续高增态势，成为公司经营保持韧性的强大 动力。近期刚结束的双十一活动显示公司旗下Fila、迪桑特和可隆表现出色。其中Fila 位列天猫运动户 外销售第一的位置，迪桑特位列第八、可隆位列天猫户外品类第四的位置。结合之前披露的三季度运营 数据，我们预计25 年全年Fila 流水有望实现中单增长，其他品牌流水有望实现40%以上的增长。 根据公司之前公告以及双十一活动情况，我们调整公司盈利预测，预计2025-2027年每股收益分别为 4.69、5.29 ...

Core Insights - Amer Sports reported a strong performance in Q2 2025, with revenue increasing by 23% year-on-year to $1.236 billion and net profit turning positive at $18.2 million, compared to a loss of $4 million in the same period last year [2][4] Financial Performance - Gross margin improved by 270 basis points to 58.5%, while adjusted gross margin rose by 250 basis points to 58.7% [2] - Operating profit surged by 614% to $44 million, with adjusted operating profit increasing by 130% to $67 million, including a government subsidy of $19 million received in Q2 [2] - Net profit increased from a loss of $4 million to $18 million, with adjusted net profit growing by 46% to $36 million [2] Regional Performance - Revenue in Greater China reached $410 million, up 42% year-on-year; Asia-Pacific revenue grew by 45% to $155 million; Americas revenue increased by 6% to $395 million; and EMEA revenue rose by 18% to $276 million [3] Future Guidance - Amer Sports raised its full-year revenue guidance, expecting a growth of 20%-21% for FY2025, despite challenges from tariffs on imports from China [4] Brand Dynamics - Salomon's revenue growth outpaced Arc'teryx, with Salomon's outdoor segment growing by 35% compared to Arc'teryx's 23% in Q2 [6] - Salomon's footwear business is becoming a significant growth driver for Amer Sports, with the number of Salomon stores increasing by 58% to 256, while Arc'teryx stores grew by only 12% to 227 [7] Challenges Ahead - The $19 million government subsidy played a crucial role in profit improvement, and without it, profitability would be significantly lower [9] - Inventory levels rose by 29% year-on-year to $1.597 billion, raising concerns about potential overstocking issues [9] - The company faces challenges from rising costs in channels, marketing, and labor, alongside macroeconomic uncertainties related to tariffs and slowing growth in Arc'teryx [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][24]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that Amer Sports' revenue and profit growth in Q2 2025 exceeded previous guidance and Bloomberg consensus expectations, driven by the Salomon brand, DTC channels, and strong performance in Greater China and the Asia-Pacific region. The management has raised the full-year revenue and EPS guidance [2][3][24]. - In Q2 2025, Amer Sports reported a revenue increase of 23% year-on-year to $1.236 billion, with an adjusted net profit growth of 46% to $36 million. The gross margin reached a historical high, and the adjusted operating profit margin surpassed Bloomberg consensus expectations [5][6][24]. - The management's guidance for 2025 indicates a revenue growth of 20-21%, with an expected EPS of $0.77-$0.82, reflecting confidence in the company's performance [20][22][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Amer Sports' revenue grew by 23% to $1.236 billion, significantly above Bloomberg's consensus of 18.2% and the company's prior guidance of 16-18% [5][6]. - The adjusted gross margin increased to 58.7%, exceeding both Bloomberg's expectation of 57.9% and the management's guidance of 57-58% [6][24]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $138 million, reflecting a 69.3% year-on-year increase [4][6]. Business Segments - All three major business segments reported double-digit growth: - Technical Apparel revenue increased by 23.5% - Outdoor Performance revenue surged by 35.3% - Ball & Racquet revenue rose by 10.7% [2][8][12]. - The DTC channel saw a 40% increase in revenue, accounting for 52% of total sales, while wholesale grew by 9% [5][12][24]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth by region was as follows: - Greater China: +42% - Asia-Pacific: +45% - North America: +6% - EMEA: +18% [5][12][24]. - The Greater China region significantly outperformed expectations, contributing to the overall revenue growth [12][24]. Management Guidance - The management has raised the full-year revenue growth forecast to 20-21%, with an adjusted gross margin target of approximately 57.5% and an adjusted operating profit margin of 11.8-12.2% [20][22][24]. - The adjusted diluted EPS guidance has been increased to $0.77-$0.82, up from the previous $0.67-$0.72 [20][22][24].