25 年主品牌增速短期承压的预期基本充分反映在股价调整之中，我们预计26 年开始主品牌有望逐步改 善。公司今年8 月以来股价持续调整的主要原因之一是市场对安踏主品牌营收增速的一再下调。伴随安 踏品牌季度流水增速从Q1 的高单到Q2 的低单和Q3 的持续低单，市场对主品牌全年营收预期也从最初 的高单下调至中单再到三季度以后的低单。但我们认为短期的承压有消费低迷的整体因素，也有公司对 线下渠道优化和电商团队架构调整的短期冲击，后续随着磨合期的度过，公司26 年起主品牌经营有望 逐步改善，也将为公司估值恢复提供动力。 Fila 保持稳健增长，以迪桑特和可隆为首的其他品牌有望延续高增态势，成为公司经营保持韧性的强大 动力。近期刚结束的双十一活动显示公司旗下Fila、迪桑特和可隆表现出色。其中Fila 位列天猫运动户 外销售第一的位置，迪桑特位列第八、可隆位列天猫户外品类第四的位置。结合之前披露的三季度运营 数据，我们预计25 年全年Fila 流水有望实现中单增长，其他品牌流水有望实现40%以上的增长。 根据公司之前公告以及双十一活动情况，我们调整公司盈利预测，预计2025-2027年每股收益分别为 4.69、5.29 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [1][4]. Core Views - The report indicates that Amer Sports has shown strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue and profit exceeding previous guidance and Bloomberg consensus expectations. The growth is driven by the Salomon brand, DTC channels, and strong performance in Greater China and the Asia-Pacific region. Management has raised the full-year revenue, profit margin, and EPS guidance [2][3][34]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Amer Sports reported a revenue increase of 30% year-on-year to $1.756 billion, with adjusted net profit rising 161% to $185 million. The adjusted gross margin improved by 2.4 percentage points to 57.9%, and the adjusted operating margin increased by 1.3 percentage points to 15.7%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations [2][7][8]. - Revenue growth was driven by all three business segments, with Technical Apparel up 31%, Outdoor Performance up 36%, and Ball & Racquet up 16%. The Greater China region saw a revenue increase of 47% [2][18]. Management Guidance - Management has raised the full-year revenue growth forecast to 23-24%, with an expected contribution of 100 basis points from exchange rates. The adjusted gross margin is now projected to be around 58%, and the adjusted operating margin is expected to be between 12.5% and 12.7% [32][33]. Business Segment Performance - Technical Apparel: Revenue increased by 31% (fixed exchange rate +32%), driven by strong performance in all regions and channels, particularly in women's products [15]. - Outdoor Performance: Revenue grew by 36% (fixed exchange rate +32%), with significant contributions from footwear and apparel. The DTC channel saw a 67% increase [16]. - Ball & Racquet: Revenue rose by 16% (fixed exchange rate +16%), primarily driven by strong sales in apparel and the tennis segment [17]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth by region: Greater China +47%, Asia-Pacific +54%, North America +12%, and EMEA +23%. All business lines performed well across these regions [18]. Channel Performance - DTC channel revenue increased by 51% to $720 million, accounting for 41% of total revenue, while wholesale revenue grew by 18% [18].

始祖鸟母公司亚玛芬体育公布了最新业绩 。财报显示 ， 2025年第三季度亚玛芬体育营收同比增长30%至17.56亿美元 。 除收入显著增长外 ， 公司盈利 能力也有所提升 ， 第三季度公司调整后净利润增长161%至1.85亿美元 ， 每股收益翻倍至0.33美元 ， 仍较预期高出8美分 ； 调整后毛利率扩大240个基 点至57.9% 。 公司CEO表示 ， " 亚玛芬体育在第三季度延续强劲势头 —— 我们独特的高端专业品牌组合持续在全球运动及户外市场开拓增量空间 、 抢占份额 。 三大业务板块均表现出色 ： 萨洛蒙 （ Salomon ） 鞋类业务实现卓越增长 ， 始祖鸟 （ Arc'teryx ） 全渠道业务再度加速 ， 威尔逊网球360 （ Wilson Tennis 360 ） 及冬季运动装备系列也保持稳健增长 。 " 值得注意的是 ， 今年9月19日 ， 始祖鸟联手艺术家蔡国强在喜马拉雅山放烟火 ， 引发大量关注与环保争议 。此次 " 烟花秀 " 事件对始祖鸟的品牌 形象造成了一定冲击 。 最新财报显示 ， 亚玛芬体育大中华区营收增长达47% 。 但鉴于烟花事件于9月下旬发酵 ， 其后续收入是否会受到影 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the outdoor apparel brands Arc'teryx and Salomon saw a doubling of online sales on Tmall in August compared to the previous year [2][12] - The report indicates a divergence in performance among major e-commerce platforms for sports apparel, with Tmall showing a significant improvement in August, while JD.com and Douyin experienced declines [3][12] - The report suggests that the domestic demand is expected to recover due to policy support, with specific investment recommendations across various sectors including home appliances and sportswear [5][19][20] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In August, Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin reported year-on-year growth rates of +13%, -11%, and +1% respectively for sports apparel, with Tmall showing a notable improvement compared to Q2 [3][12] - Outdoor apparel on Tmall and Douyin continued to show high growth trends, with Tmall reporting a +50% increase, while JD.com saw a -20% decline [3][12] Brand Performance - Among sports brands, Lululemon and Adidas showed improved growth rates on Tmall in August, while brands like Fila, Xtep, and Li Ning maintained a growth trend [14] - High-end outdoor brands such as Kailas, Salomon, and Arc'teryx experienced significant sales growth on Tmall, with increases of 247%, 141%, and 115% respectively [14] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on several sectors for potential investment, including: 1. Home appliances benefiting from trade-in programs, with specific companies like Midea Group and Haier Smart Home highlighted [5][19] 2. The pet industry, which is expected to remain resilient against economic cycles, with companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. suggested [5][19] 3. Small appliances and branded apparel, which may see demand recovery from a low base, with recommendations for leading companies in these sectors [5][19] 4. Electric two-wheelers, which are expected to improve in domestic sales, with companies like Ninebot and Yadea highlighted [5][20] Market Trends - The report notes that the home appliance sector experienced a decline of -0.8% this week, with specific segments like white goods and small appliances also showing negative trends [4][21] - The textile and apparel sector saw a decline of -2.59% this week, with cotton prices and other raw material prices also reflecting downward trends [4][24]

Core Insights - Chip Wilson, the founder of lululemon, has successfully transitioned from creating a yoga brand to investing in other outdoor brands like Arc'teryx and Salomon, achieving significant financial success [3][5][11] - The market positions Arc'teryx as a "male version of lululemon," indicating a shift in consumer identity and branding in the high-end sportswear sector [14][15] - Both lululemon and Arc'teryx, along with Salomon, are heavily reliant on the Chinese market for growth, with significant revenue increases reported in this region [18][20] Company Background - Chip Wilson founded lululemon in 1998 after selling his previous outdoor brand, Westbeach, for $1 million, which he considers a valuable learning experience [9][11] - lululemon went public in 2007, achieving a market capitalization in the hundreds of billions, marking Wilson's second major financial success [3][5] - After leaving lululemon in 2015, Wilson became a significant investor in Amer Sports, the parent company of Arc'teryx and Salomon, which has seen its market value triple since its privatization [5][11] Market Dynamics - Amer Sports, with a market value of $21.8 billion, has outperformed lululemon in terms of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, indicating strong investor confidence [17] - The growth of Arc'teryx and Salomon has been notable, with Arc'teryx experiencing a 23% growth and Salomon achieving a record 35% growth in recent quarters [17] - The high-end sportswear market is increasingly seen as a substitute for luxury goods, with brands like lululemon and Arc'teryx becoming status symbols [15][17] Regional Performance - Amer Sports reported over 50% year-on-year growth in the Chinese market, which is crucial for its expansion strategy [18] - lululemon also experienced a 21% increase in revenue from its China operations, while facing declines in North America, prompting a revision of its annual performance guidance [20] - The competitive landscape in China is intensifying, with emerging brands and established players like Nike and Adidas vying for market share [20]

Industry Trends - The Chinese sports market is diversifying, with a market size of 400 billion yuan and a pre-pandemic compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17%, while penetration rates are expected to rise from 7.3% in 2010 to 15.3% by 2024 [1] - The industry has experienced three growth cycles: 2008-2010 saw the rise of professional sports and leisure; 2014-2019 was marked by a high-end sports fashion trend; and from 2021 onwards, professional and outdoor sports have led diversified development [1] - Compared to China, the penetration rates in Europe, America, and Japan are generally higher, with distinct development paths: Europe and America focus on mass sports and hardcore outdoor activities, while Japan and South Korea emphasize fashionable sports [1] Company Overview - Anta Sports is a leading multi-brand sports company, projected to achieve revenue of 70.8 billion yuan in 2024 with a gross margin of 62% [2] - The company has a well-structured brand matrix with three major brand groups: professional, outdoor, and fashion, which are developing synergistically [2] - Anta has expanded its brand matrix through acquisitions, including MAIA ACTIVE and Jack Wolfskin, and has formed a global dual-drive with Amer Sports (brands like Arc'teryx and Salomon) [2] Competitive Advantage - The company is capitalizing on the trend of sports merging with leisure and social activities, with its brands catering to various consumer needs [3] - Anta's main brand focuses on professional sports with a strong retail system and cost-performance advantage, while other brands like Descente and Salomon target niche markets [3] - High-end brands leverage design and celebrity endorsements to capture market share, with FILA enhancing its fashion appeal and Descente focusing on high-end customer engagement [3] Growth Potential - The brand matrix strategy is expected to stimulate incremental demand, with global operations likely to yield significant growth opportunities [4] - Recent popularity of brands like Arc'teryx and Salomon has led to substantial growth in categories like outdoor jackets and shoes, with social media engagement projected to increase by 80%-200% by 2025 [4] - The overseas sports market is six times larger than China's, with higher consumer spending power in developed regions, indicating strong potential for international brand growth [4] Profit Forecast - The brand matrix is anticipated to drive growth and profitability, with the main brand expected to achieve mid-to-high single-digit compound growth and stable profit margins [5] - FILA is projected to maintain steady growth focusing on elegant sports, while other niche brands like Descente and Kolon are expected to sustain over 30% compound growth [5] - Amer Sports is expected to contribute net profits, growing from over 1 billion yuan this year to over 2 billion yuan in three years [5]

Core Insights - Amer Sports reported a strong performance in Q2 2025, with revenue increasing by 23% year-on-year to $1.236 billion and net profit turning positive at $18.2 million, compared to a loss of $4 million in the same period last year [2][4] Financial Performance - Gross margin improved by 270 basis points to 58.5%, while adjusted gross margin rose by 250 basis points to 58.7% [2] - Operating profit surged by 614% to $44 million, with adjusted operating profit increasing by 130% to $67 million, including a government subsidy of $19 million received in Q2 [2] - Net profit increased from a loss of $4 million to $18 million, with adjusted net profit growing by 46% to $36 million [2] Regional Performance - Revenue in Greater China reached $410 million, up 42% year-on-year; Asia-Pacific revenue grew by 45% to $155 million; Americas revenue increased by 6% to $395 million; and EMEA revenue rose by 18% to $276 million [3] Future Guidance - Amer Sports raised its full-year revenue guidance, expecting a growth of 20%-21% for FY2025, despite challenges from tariffs on imports from China [4] Brand Dynamics - Salomon's revenue growth outpaced Arc'teryx, with Salomon's outdoor segment growing by 35% compared to Arc'teryx's 23% in Q2 [6] - Salomon's footwear business is becoming a significant growth driver for Amer Sports, with the number of Salomon stores increasing by 58% to 256, while Arc'teryx stores grew by only 12% to 227 [7] Challenges Ahead - The $19 million government subsidy played a crucial role in profit improvement, and without it, profitability would be significantly lower [9] - Inventory levels rose by 29% year-on-year to $1.597 billion, raising concerns about potential overstocking issues [9] - The company faces challenges from rising costs in channels, marketing, and labor, alongside macroeconomic uncertainties related to tariffs and slowing growth in Arc'teryx [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][24]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that Amer Sports' revenue and profit growth in Q2 2025 exceeded previous guidance and Bloomberg consensus expectations, driven by the Salomon brand, DTC channels, and strong performance in Greater China and the Asia-Pacific region. The management has raised the full-year revenue and EPS guidance [2][3][24]. - In Q2 2025, Amer Sports reported a revenue increase of 23% year-on-year to $1.236 billion, with an adjusted net profit growth of 46% to $36 million. The gross margin reached a historical high, and the adjusted operating profit margin surpassed Bloomberg consensus expectations [5][6][24]. - The management's guidance for 2025 indicates a revenue growth of 20-21%, with an expected EPS of $0.77-$0.82, reflecting confidence in the company's performance [20][22][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Amer Sports' revenue grew by 23% to $1.236 billion, significantly above Bloomberg's consensus of 18.2% and the company's prior guidance of 16-18% [5][6]. - The adjusted gross margin increased to 58.7%, exceeding both Bloomberg's expectation of 57.9% and the management's guidance of 57-58% [6][24]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $138 million, reflecting a 69.3% year-on-year increase [4][6]. Business Segments - All three major business segments reported double-digit growth: - Technical Apparel revenue increased by 23.5% - Outdoor Performance revenue surged by 35.3% - Ball & Racquet revenue rose by 10.7% [2][8][12]. - The DTC channel saw a 40% increase in revenue, accounting for 52% of total sales, while wholesale grew by 9% [5][12][24]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth by region was as follows: - Greater China: +42% - Asia-Pacific: +45% - North America: +6% - EMEA: +18% [5][12][24]. - The Greater China region significantly outperformed expectations, contributing to the overall revenue growth [12][24]. Management Guidance - The management has raised the full-year revenue growth forecast to 20-21%, with an adjusted gross margin target of approximately 57.5% and an adjusted operating profit margin of 11.8-12.2% [20][22][24]. - The adjusted diluted EPS guidance has been increased to $0.77-$0.82, up from the previous $0.67-$0.72 [20][22][24].

Core Insights - Amer Sports reported a 23% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, reaching $1.236 billion [1] - The company expects a full-year revenue growth of 20-21%, with a gross margin of approximately 57.5% and an operating profit margin of 11.8-12.2% [2] Revenue Breakdown - Outdoor functional apparel segment grew 23% to $509 million [1] - Mountain outdoor apparel and equipment segment saw a 35% increase to $414 million [1] - Ball and racket equipment segment increased by 11% to $314 million [1] Regional Performance - Greater China revenue grew 42% to $410 million [1] - Asia-Pacific (excluding Greater China) revenue increased by 45% to $155 million [1] - Americas revenue rose by 6% to $395 million [1] - EMEA region revenue grew 18% to $276 million [1] Channel Performance - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel revenue increased by 40% to $641 million [1] - As of June 30, the number of outdoor functional apparel stores increased by 12% to 227 [1] - Mountain outdoor apparel and equipment stores grew by 58% to 256 [1] - Ball and racket equipment stores increased by 142% to 63 [1] Store Expansion - Arc'teryx added 7 new stores, with growth in footwear and women's categories [1] - Salomon's DTC channel grew by 63%, with a net addition of 16 stores in Greater China, totaling 234 [1] - Wilson's footwear business revenue doubled, with plans to open 50 new tennis 360 stores in China this year [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5][32] Core Insights - The report highlights that Amer Sports' Q1 performance exceeded both Bloomberg consensus expectations and the company's prior guidance, leading management to raise full-year revenue and EPS guidance. The company experienced double-digit growth across all business lines, channels, and regions, with manageable tariff risks [2][3][32] - In Q1 2025, Amer Sports reported a revenue increase of 23% year-on-year to $1.473 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $148 million, significantly up from $39 million in the same period last year. The gross margin and adjusted operating profit margin reached historical highs [7][9][11] - The management has adjusted the full-year revenue growth forecast to 15-17%, with an expected EPS of $0.67-0.72, reflecting confidence in the company's performance [27][32] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, revenue grew by 23% to $1.473 billion, with a fixed exchange rate growth of 26%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus of 16% and the company's previous guidance of 14-16% [2][7] - The adjusted gross margin increased by 330 basis points to 58.0%, exceeding expectations, driven by favorable channel, geographic, and product mix [9][11] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $299 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.3% [6][9] Business Segment Performance - Technical Apparel: Revenue increased by 28% to $664 million, with strong growth in women's and footwear categories [11][14] - Outdoor Performance: Revenue rose by 25% to $502 million, driven by strong DTC channel growth and successful product launches [11][14] - Ball & Racquet Sports: Revenue grew by 12% to $306 million, primarily driven by the Wilson Tennis 360 series [11][14] Regional Performance - Greater China: Revenue increased by 43%, driven by strong performance across all business lines [15] - North America: Revenue grew by 12%, with notable growth in Technical Apparel and Wilson Tennis products [15] - EMEA: Revenue rose by 12%, supported by Technical Apparel and Outdoor Performance [15] Channel Performance - DTC Channel: Revenue increased by 39% to $690 million, accounting for 47% of total revenue [7][15] - Wholesale Channel: Revenue grew by 12%, with a positive turnaround in Salomon's wholesale business [15] Management Guidance - The management has raised the full-year revenue growth forecast to 15-17%, with an adjusted EPS guidance of $0.67-0.72 [27][32] - For Q2 2025, revenue growth is expected to be between 16-18%, with an adjusted gross margin of 57-58% [31][32]