安踏似乎也成为了这样的中年人。 三十多年风雨兼程，安踏从晋江起步，靠着一股爱拼才会赢的狠劲，一路逆袭成全球体育圈的豪门贵公 子。谁能想到，如今手握一堆国际大牌的安踏，早年竟是个不折不扣的"小镇做题家"。 但丁在《神曲》中曾写道："我在人生旅程的半途醒转，发觉置身于一个黑森林里面，林中正确的道路 消失中断。" 多年后，心理学家埃里奥特·杰奎斯（Elliott Jaques）将这份对人生中途的迷茫具象化，提出了"中年危 机"的概念。 人在走过热烈张扬的青年岁月后，步入中年往往会陷入一种莫名的停滞与失衡，一边是对过往人生的复 盘与叩问，一边是对未来前路的迷茫与彷徨。 2009年，安踏大胆拿下FILA中国区运营权，彼时没人看好这个濒临退出中国市场的意大利品牌，可安 踏却硬生生将其盘活；随后，韩国户外品牌可隆、德国户外品牌狼爪相继被纳入麾下；2019年，安踏更 是甩出约360亿人民币的高价，将芬兰亚玛芬体育收入囊中，一举将始祖鸟、萨洛蒙这些顶流品牌收至 麾下，搭建起一个覆盖专业体育、时尚运动、高端户外的品牌矩阵。 靠着这套组合拳，安踏完成了华丽蜕变，逆袭成为全球第三大体育用品集团、首个跻身全球体育巨头行 列的中国品牌。 ...

Group 1: Amer Sports Performance - Amer Sports reported a strong Q3 performance with a 30% year-on-year revenue growth and a 22% increase in operating profit, exceeding market expectations [1] - All four major regional markets achieved double-digit revenue growth, with the Greater China region seeing a remarkable 47% increase [1] - Amer has raised its full-year revenue growth forecast for 2025 from 20%-21% to 23%-24%, reflecting its effective global multi-brand operational capabilities [1] Group 2: Anta Brand Outlook - The market has adjusted its expectations for Anta's main brand revenue growth, leading to a decline in stock price since August [2] - Revenue growth for Anta's main brand has decreased from high single digits in Q1 to low single digits in Q2 and Q3, prompting downward revisions of annual revenue forecasts [2] - Despite short-term pressures due to overall consumer sluggishness and adjustments in offline channels and e-commerce teams, improvements in the main brand's performance are anticipated starting in 2026 [2] Group 3: Fila and Other Brands - Fila has shown robust growth, ranking first in Tmall's sports and outdoor sales, while Descente and KOLON are expected to continue their high growth momentum [3] - The recent Double Eleven sales event indicated strong performance for Fila, Descente, and KOLON, with Fila projected to achieve mid-single-digit growth for the year [3] - Earnings forecasts have been adjusted, with expected earnings per share for 2025-2027 being 4.69, 5.29, and 6.02 RMB respectively, and a target price of 112.89 HKD based on a 22x PE valuation for 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [1][4]. Core Views - The report indicates that Amer Sports has shown strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue and profit exceeding previous guidance and Bloomberg consensus expectations. The growth is driven by the Salomon brand, DTC channels, and strong performance in Greater China and the Asia-Pacific region. Management has raised the full-year revenue, profit margin, and EPS guidance [2][3][34]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Amer Sports reported a revenue increase of 30% year-on-year to $1.756 billion, with adjusted net profit rising 161% to $185 million. The adjusted gross margin improved by 2.4 percentage points to 57.9%, and the adjusted operating margin increased by 1.3 percentage points to 15.7%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations [2][7][8]. - Revenue growth was driven by all three business segments, with Technical Apparel up 31%, Outdoor Performance up 36%, and Ball & Racquet up 16%. The Greater China region saw a revenue increase of 47% [2][18]. Management Guidance - Management has raised the full-year revenue growth forecast to 23-24%, with an expected contribution of 100 basis points from exchange rates. The adjusted gross margin is now projected to be around 58%, and the adjusted operating margin is expected to be between 12.5% and 12.7% [32][33]. Business Segment Performance - Technical Apparel: Revenue increased by 31% (fixed exchange rate +32%), driven by strong performance in all regions and channels, particularly in women's products [15]. - Outdoor Performance: Revenue grew by 36% (fixed exchange rate +32%), with significant contributions from footwear and apparel. The DTC channel saw a 67% increase [16]. - Ball & Racquet: Revenue rose by 16% (fixed exchange rate +16%), primarily driven by strong sales in apparel and the tennis segment [17]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth by region: Greater China +47%, Asia-Pacific +54%, North America +12%, and EMEA +23%. All business lines performed well across these regions [18]. Channel Performance - DTC channel revenue increased by 51% to $720 million, accounting for 41% of total revenue, while wholesale revenue grew by 18% [18].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article is that Amer Sports, the parent company of Arc'teryx, reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth, while also facing potential brand image challenges due to a controversial event [1][3]. Financial Performance - Amer Sports reported a 30% year-on-year revenue increase to $1.756 billion in Q3 2025, with adjusted net profit rising 161% to $185 million, and earnings per share doubling to $0.33, exceeding expectations by $0.08 [1][3]. - The adjusted gross margin expanded by 240 basis points to 57.9% [1][15]. Business Segments Highlights Technical Apparel - Revenue grew 31% to $683 million, driven by strong performance from the Arc'teryx brand, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel revenue up 46% [7][15]. - The women's product line saw a 40% increase, with plans to increase its share of global revenue from 25% in 2025 to 30% by 2030 [7][15]. - The company plans to open 20 new Arc'teryx stores in 2025, focusing on North America [8]. Outdoor Performance - Revenue increased 36% to $724 million, primarily driven by Salomon's footwear and apparel [10][15]. - DTC channel revenue surged 67%, with significant growth in the Asia-Pacific region [10][15]. - The adjusted operating margin improved by 420 basis points to 21.7% due to channel and product structure optimization [11][15]. Ball & Racquet - Revenue rose 16% to $350 million, with Wilson brand products driving growth [12][15]. - The company plans to open 35 new Tennis 360 stores in China by 2025, expanding its presence in the market [13]. Future Outlook - The company raised its revenue growth forecast for 2025 to 23%-24%, up from the initial 20%-21% guidance, projecting revenue between $6.37 billion and $6.42 billion [3][19]. - For 2026, the company anticipates revenue growth to reach the upper limit of its long-term growth range, with adjusted operating margins expected to expand by 30-70 basis points [20].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the outdoor apparel brands Arc'teryx and Salomon saw a doubling of online sales on Tmall in August compared to the previous year [2][12] - The report indicates a divergence in performance among major e-commerce platforms for sports apparel, with Tmall showing a significant improvement in August, while JD.com and Douyin experienced declines [3][12] - The report suggests that the domestic demand is expected to recover due to policy support, with specific investment recommendations across various sectors including home appliances and sportswear [5][19][20] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In August, Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin reported year-on-year growth rates of +13%, -11%, and +1% respectively for sports apparel, with Tmall showing a notable improvement compared to Q2 [3][12] - Outdoor apparel on Tmall and Douyin continued to show high growth trends, with Tmall reporting a +50% increase, while JD.com saw a -20% decline [3][12] Brand Performance - Among sports brands, Lululemon and Adidas showed improved growth rates on Tmall in August, while brands like Fila, Xtep, and Li Ning maintained a growth trend [14] - High-end outdoor brands such as Kailas, Salomon, and Arc'teryx experienced significant sales growth on Tmall, with increases of 247%, 141%, and 115% respectively [14] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on several sectors for potential investment, including: 1. Home appliances benefiting from trade-in programs, with specific companies like Midea Group and Haier Smart Home highlighted [5][19] 2. The pet industry, which is expected to remain resilient against economic cycles, with companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. suggested [5][19] 3. Small appliances and branded apparel, which may see demand recovery from a low base, with recommendations for leading companies in these sectors [5][19] 4. Electric two-wheelers, which are expected to improve in domestic sales, with companies like Ninebot and Yadea highlighted [5][20] Market Trends - The report notes that the home appliance sector experienced a decline of -0.8% this week, with specific segments like white goods and small appliances also showing negative trends [4][21] - The textile and apparel sector saw a decline of -2.59% this week, with cotton prices and other raw material prices also reflecting downward trends [4][24]

Core Insights - Chip Wilson, the founder of lululemon, has successfully transitioned from creating a yoga brand to investing in other outdoor brands like Arc'teryx and Salomon, achieving significant financial success [3][5][11] - The market positions Arc'teryx as a "male version of lululemon," indicating a shift in consumer identity and branding in the high-end sportswear sector [14][15] - Both lululemon and Arc'teryx, along with Salomon, are heavily reliant on the Chinese market for growth, with significant revenue increases reported in this region [18][20] Company Background - Chip Wilson founded lululemon in 1998 after selling his previous outdoor brand, Westbeach, for $1 million, which he considers a valuable learning experience [9][11] - lululemon went public in 2007, achieving a market capitalization in the hundreds of billions, marking Wilson's second major financial success [3][5] - After leaving lululemon in 2015, Wilson became a significant investor in Amer Sports, the parent company of Arc'teryx and Salomon, which has seen its market value triple since its privatization [5][11] Market Dynamics - Amer Sports, with a market value of $21.8 billion, has outperformed lululemon in terms of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, indicating strong investor confidence [17] - The growth of Arc'teryx and Salomon has been notable, with Arc'teryx experiencing a 23% growth and Salomon achieving a record 35% growth in recent quarters [17] - The high-end sportswear market is increasingly seen as a substitute for luxury goods, with brands like lululemon and Arc'teryx becoming status symbols [15][17] Regional Performance - Amer Sports reported over 50% year-on-year growth in the Chinese market, which is crucial for its expansion strategy [18] - lululemon also experienced a 21% increase in revenue from its China operations, while facing declines in North America, prompting a revision of its annual performance guidance [20] - The competitive landscape in China is intensifying, with emerging brands and established players like Nike and Adidas vying for market share [20]

Industry Trends - The Chinese sports market is diversifying, with a market size of 400 billion yuan and a pre-pandemic compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17%, while penetration rates are expected to rise from 7.3% in 2010 to 15.3% by 2024 [1] - The industry has experienced three growth cycles: 2008-2010 saw the rise of professional sports and leisure; 2014-2019 was marked by a high-end sports fashion trend; and from 2021 onwards, professional and outdoor sports have led diversified development [1] - Compared to China, the penetration rates in Europe, America, and Japan are generally higher, with distinct development paths: Europe and America focus on mass sports and hardcore outdoor activities, while Japan and South Korea emphasize fashionable sports [1] Company Overview - Anta Sports is a leading multi-brand sports company, projected to achieve revenue of 70.8 billion yuan in 2024 with a gross margin of 62% [2] - The company has a well-structured brand matrix with three major brand groups: professional, outdoor, and fashion, which are developing synergistically [2] - Anta has expanded its brand matrix through acquisitions, including MAIA ACTIVE and Jack Wolfskin, and has formed a global dual-drive with Amer Sports (brands like Arc'teryx and Salomon) [2] Competitive Advantage - The company is capitalizing on the trend of sports merging with leisure and social activities, with its brands catering to various consumer needs [3] - Anta's main brand focuses on professional sports with a strong retail system and cost-performance advantage, while other brands like Descente and Salomon target niche markets [3] - High-end brands leverage design and celebrity endorsements to capture market share, with FILA enhancing its fashion appeal and Descente focusing on high-end customer engagement [3] Growth Potential - The brand matrix strategy is expected to stimulate incremental demand, with global operations likely to yield significant growth opportunities [4] - Recent popularity of brands like Arc'teryx and Salomon has led to substantial growth in categories like outdoor jackets and shoes, with social media engagement projected to increase by 80%-200% by 2025 [4] - The overseas sports market is six times larger than China's, with higher consumer spending power in developed regions, indicating strong potential for international brand growth [4] Profit Forecast - The brand matrix is anticipated to drive growth and profitability, with the main brand expected to achieve mid-to-high single-digit compound growth and stable profit margins [5] - FILA is projected to maintain steady growth focusing on elegant sports, while other niche brands like Descente and Kolon are expected to sustain over 30% compound growth [5] - Amer Sports is expected to contribute net profits, growing from over 1 billion yuan this year to over 2 billion yuan in three years [5]

Core Insights - Amer Sports reported a strong performance in Q2 2025, with revenue increasing by 23% year-on-year to $1.236 billion and net profit turning positive at $18.2 million, compared to a loss of $4 million in the same period last year [2][4] Financial Performance - Gross margin improved by 270 basis points to 58.5%, while adjusted gross margin rose by 250 basis points to 58.7% [2] - Operating profit surged by 614% to $44 million, with adjusted operating profit increasing by 130% to $67 million, including a government subsidy of $19 million received in Q2 [2] - Net profit increased from a loss of $4 million to $18 million, with adjusted net profit growing by 46% to $36 million [2] Regional Performance - Revenue in Greater China reached $410 million, up 42% year-on-year; Asia-Pacific revenue grew by 45% to $155 million; Americas revenue increased by 6% to $395 million; and EMEA revenue rose by 18% to $276 million [3] Future Guidance - Amer Sports raised its full-year revenue guidance, expecting a growth of 20%-21% for FY2025, despite challenges from tariffs on imports from China [4] Brand Dynamics - Salomon's revenue growth outpaced Arc'teryx, with Salomon's outdoor segment growing by 35% compared to Arc'teryx's 23% in Q2 [6] - Salomon's footwear business is becoming a significant growth driver for Amer Sports, with the number of Salomon stores increasing by 58% to 256, while Arc'teryx stores grew by only 12% to 227 [7] Challenges Ahead - The $19 million government subsidy played a crucial role in profit improvement, and without it, profitability would be significantly lower [9] - Inventory levels rose by 29% year-on-year to $1.597 billion, raising concerns about potential overstocking issues [9] - The company faces challenges from rising costs in channels, marketing, and labor, alongside macroeconomic uncertainties related to tariffs and slowing growth in Arc'teryx [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][24]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that Amer Sports' revenue and profit growth in Q2 2025 exceeded previous guidance and Bloomberg consensus expectations, driven by the Salomon brand, DTC channels, and strong performance in Greater China and the Asia-Pacific region. The management has raised the full-year revenue and EPS guidance [2][3][24]. - In Q2 2025, Amer Sports reported a revenue increase of 23% year-on-year to $1.236 billion, with an adjusted net profit growth of 46% to $36 million. The gross margin reached a historical high, and the adjusted operating profit margin surpassed Bloomberg consensus expectations [5][6][24]. - The management's guidance for 2025 indicates a revenue growth of 20-21%, with an expected EPS of $0.77-$0.82, reflecting confidence in the company's performance [20][22][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Amer Sports' revenue grew by 23% to $1.236 billion, significantly above Bloomberg's consensus of 18.2% and the company's prior guidance of 16-18% [5][6]. - The adjusted gross margin increased to 58.7%, exceeding both Bloomberg's expectation of 57.9% and the management's guidance of 57-58% [6][24]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $138 million, reflecting a 69.3% year-on-year increase [4][6]. Business Segments - All three major business segments reported double-digit growth: - Technical Apparel revenue increased by 23.5% - Outdoor Performance revenue surged by 35.3% - Ball & Racquet revenue rose by 10.7% [2][8][12]. - The DTC channel saw a 40% increase in revenue, accounting for 52% of total sales, while wholesale grew by 9% [5][12][24]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth by region was as follows: - Greater China: +42% - Asia-Pacific: +45% - North America: +6% - EMEA: +18% [5][12][24]. - The Greater China region significantly outperformed expectations, contributing to the overall revenue growth [12][24]. Management Guidance - The management has raised the full-year revenue growth forecast to 20-21%, with an adjusted gross margin target of approximately 57.5% and an adjusted operating profit margin of 11.8-12.2% [20][22][24]. - The adjusted diluted EPS guidance has been increased to $0.77-$0.82, up from the previous $0.67-$0.72 [20][22][24].

Core Insights - Amer Sports reported a 23% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, reaching $1.236 billion [1] - The company expects a full-year revenue growth of 20-21%, with a gross margin of approximately 57.5% and an operating profit margin of 11.8-12.2% [2] Revenue Breakdown - Outdoor functional apparel segment grew 23% to $509 million [1] - Mountain outdoor apparel and equipment segment saw a 35% increase to $414 million [1] - Ball and racket equipment segment increased by 11% to $314 million [1] Regional Performance - Greater China revenue grew 42% to $410 million [1] - Asia-Pacific (excluding Greater China) revenue increased by 45% to $155 million [1] - Americas revenue rose by 6% to $395 million [1] - EMEA region revenue grew 18% to $276 million [1] Channel Performance - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel revenue increased by 40% to $641 million [1] - As of June 30, the number of outdoor functional apparel stores increased by 12% to 227 [1] - Mountain outdoor apparel and equipment stores grew by 58% to 256 [1] - Ball and racket equipment stores increased by 142% to 63 [1] Store Expansion - Arc'teryx added 7 new stores, with growth in footwear and women's categories [1] - Salomon's DTC channel grew by 63%, with a net addition of 16 stores in Greater China, totaling 234 [1] - Wilson's footwear business revenue doubled, with plans to open 50 new tennis 360 stores in China this year [1]