行 华福证券 投资要点： 始祖鸟/萨洛蒙 8 月天猫平台同比翻倍 行 业 定 期 报 告 7-8 月运动电商平台分化，户外天猫抖音平台保持高增。据久谦 数据，2025 年 7-8 月三大平台运动服饰大盘表现分化，8 月天猫/京东 /抖音分别同比+13%/-11%/+1%，天猫表现较 Q2 显著改善。户外服饰 在天猫、抖音平台延续高增趋势，其中 8 月天猫/京东/抖音分别同比 +50%/-20%/+18%。 行情数据 本周家电板块涨跌幅-0.8%，其中白电/黑电/小家电/厨电板块涨 跌幅分别-0.8%/-0.7%/-2.5%/-3.6%。原材料价格方面，LME 铜、LME 铝环比上周分别-1.46%、-1.04%。 本周纺织服装板块涨跌幅-2.59%，其中纺织制造涨跌幅-1.75%， 服装家纺涨跌幅-2.89%。本周 328 级棉现货 15043 元/吨（-1.57%）， 美棉CotlookA77.7美分/磅（-0.89%），内外棉价差891元/吨（-15.86%）。 投资建议 政策支持下内需有望迎来复苏，建议关注以下方向：1）大家电 预计继续受益以旧换新，建议关注美的集团、海尔智家、格力电器、 海信家电、TC ...

Core Insights - Chip Wilson, the founder of lululemon, has successfully transitioned from creating a yoga brand to investing in other outdoor brands like Arc'teryx and Salomon, achieving significant financial success [3][5][11] - The market positions Arc'teryx as a "male version of lululemon," indicating a shift in consumer identity and branding in the high-end sportswear sector [14][15] - Both lululemon and Arc'teryx, along with Salomon, are heavily reliant on the Chinese market for growth, with significant revenue increases reported in this region [18][20] Company Background - Chip Wilson founded lululemon in 1998 after selling his previous outdoor brand, Westbeach, for $1 million, which he considers a valuable learning experience [9][11] - lululemon went public in 2007, achieving a market capitalization in the hundreds of billions, marking Wilson's second major financial success [3][5] - After leaving lululemon in 2015, Wilson became a significant investor in Amer Sports, the parent company of Arc'teryx and Salomon, which has seen its market value triple since its privatization [5][11] Market Dynamics - Amer Sports, with a market value of $21.8 billion, has outperformed lululemon in terms of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, indicating strong investor confidence [17] - The growth of Arc'teryx and Salomon has been notable, with Arc'teryx experiencing a 23% growth and Salomon achieving a record 35% growth in recent quarters [17] - The high-end sportswear market is increasingly seen as a substitute for luxury goods, with brands like lululemon and Arc'teryx becoming status symbols [15][17] Regional Performance - Amer Sports reported over 50% year-on-year growth in the Chinese market, which is crucial for its expansion strategy [18] - lululemon also experienced a 21% increase in revenue from its China operations, while facing declines in North America, prompting a revision of its annual performance guidance [20] - The competitive landscape in China is intensifying, with emerging brands and established players like Nike and Adidas vying for market share [20]

Industry Trends - The Chinese sports market is diversifying, with a market size of 400 billion yuan and a pre-pandemic compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17%, while penetration rates are expected to rise from 7.3% in 2010 to 15.3% by 2024 [1] - The industry has experienced three growth cycles: 2008-2010 saw the rise of professional sports and leisure; 2014-2019 was marked by a high-end sports fashion trend; and from 2021 onwards, professional and outdoor sports have led diversified development [1] - Compared to China, the penetration rates in Europe, America, and Japan are generally higher, with distinct development paths: Europe and America focus on mass sports and hardcore outdoor activities, while Japan and South Korea emphasize fashionable sports [1] Company Overview - Anta Sports is a leading multi-brand sports company, projected to achieve revenue of 70.8 billion yuan in 2024 with a gross margin of 62% [2] - The company has a well-structured brand matrix with three major brand groups: professional, outdoor, and fashion, which are developing synergistically [2] - Anta has expanded its brand matrix through acquisitions, including MAIA ACTIVE and Jack Wolfskin, and has formed a global dual-drive with Amer Sports (brands like Arc'teryx and Salomon) [2] Competitive Advantage - The company is capitalizing on the trend of sports merging with leisure and social activities, with its brands catering to various consumer needs [3] - Anta's main brand focuses on professional sports with a strong retail system and cost-performance advantage, while other brands like Descente and Salomon target niche markets [3] - High-end brands leverage design and celebrity endorsements to capture market share, with FILA enhancing its fashion appeal and Descente focusing on high-end customer engagement [3] Growth Potential - The brand matrix strategy is expected to stimulate incremental demand, with global operations likely to yield significant growth opportunities [4] - Recent popularity of brands like Arc'teryx and Salomon has led to substantial growth in categories like outdoor jackets and shoes, with social media engagement projected to increase by 80%-200% by 2025 [4] - The overseas sports market is six times larger than China's, with higher consumer spending power in developed regions, indicating strong potential for international brand growth [4] Profit Forecast - The brand matrix is anticipated to drive growth and profitability, with the main brand expected to achieve mid-to-high single-digit compound growth and stable profit margins [5] - FILA is projected to maintain steady growth focusing on elegant sports, while other niche brands like Descente and Kolon are expected to sustain over 30% compound growth [5] - Amer Sports is expected to contribute net profits, growing from over 1 billion yuan this year to over 2 billion yuan in three years [5]

Core Insights - Amer Sports reported a strong performance in Q2 2025, with revenue increasing by 23% year-on-year to $1.236 billion and net profit turning positive at $18.2 million, compared to a loss of $4 million in the same period last year [2][4] Financial Performance - Gross margin improved by 270 basis points to 58.5%, while adjusted gross margin rose by 250 basis points to 58.7% [2] - Operating profit surged by 614% to $44 million, with adjusted operating profit increasing by 130% to $67 million, including a government subsidy of $19 million received in Q2 [2] - Net profit increased from a loss of $4 million to $18 million, with adjusted net profit growing by 46% to $36 million [2] Regional Performance - Revenue in Greater China reached $410 million, up 42% year-on-year; Asia-Pacific revenue grew by 45% to $155 million; Americas revenue increased by 6% to $395 million; and EMEA revenue rose by 18% to $276 million [3] Future Guidance - Amer Sports raised its full-year revenue guidance, expecting a growth of 20%-21% for FY2025, despite challenges from tariffs on imports from China [4] Brand Dynamics - Salomon's revenue growth outpaced Arc'teryx, with Salomon's outdoor segment growing by 35% compared to Arc'teryx's 23% in Q2 [6] - Salomon's footwear business is becoming a significant growth driver for Amer Sports, with the number of Salomon stores increasing by 58% to 256, while Arc'teryx stores grew by only 12% to 227 [7] Challenges Ahead - The $19 million government subsidy played a crucial role in profit improvement, and without it, profitability would be significantly lower [9] - Inventory levels rose by 29% year-on-year to $1.597 billion, raising concerns about potential overstocking issues [9] - The company faces challenges from rising costs in channels, marketing, and labor, alongside macroeconomic uncertainties related to tariffs and slowing growth in Arc'teryx [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][24]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that Amer Sports' revenue and profit growth in Q2 2025 exceeded previous guidance and Bloomberg consensus expectations, driven by the Salomon brand, DTC channels, and strong performance in Greater China and the Asia-Pacific region. The management has raised the full-year revenue and EPS guidance [2][3][24]. - In Q2 2025, Amer Sports reported a revenue increase of 23% year-on-year to $1.236 billion, with an adjusted net profit growth of 46% to $36 million. The gross margin reached a historical high, and the adjusted operating profit margin surpassed Bloomberg consensus expectations [5][6][24]. - The management's guidance for 2025 indicates a revenue growth of 20-21%, with an expected EPS of $0.77-$0.82, reflecting confidence in the company's performance [20][22][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Amer Sports' revenue grew by 23% to $1.236 billion, significantly above Bloomberg's consensus of 18.2% and the company's prior guidance of 16-18% [5][6]. - The adjusted gross margin increased to 58.7%, exceeding both Bloomberg's expectation of 57.9% and the management's guidance of 57-58% [6][24]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $138 million, reflecting a 69.3% year-on-year increase [4][6]. Business Segments - All three major business segments reported double-digit growth: - Technical Apparel revenue increased by 23.5% - Outdoor Performance revenue surged by 35.3% - Ball & Racquet revenue rose by 10.7% [2][8][12]. - The DTC channel saw a 40% increase in revenue, accounting for 52% of total sales, while wholesale grew by 9% [5][12][24]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth by region was as follows: - Greater China: +42% - Asia-Pacific: +45% - North America: +6% - EMEA: +18% [5][12][24]. - The Greater China region significantly outperformed expectations, contributing to the overall revenue growth [12][24]. Management Guidance - The management has raised the full-year revenue growth forecast to 20-21%, with an adjusted gross margin target of approximately 57.5% and an adjusted operating profit margin of 11.8-12.2% [20][22][24]. - The adjusted diluted EPS guidance has been increased to $0.77-$0.82, up from the previous $0.67-$0.72 [20][22][24].

Core Insights - Amer Sports reported a 23% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, reaching $1.236 billion [1] - The company expects a full-year revenue growth of 20-21%, with a gross margin of approximately 57.5% and an operating profit margin of 11.8-12.2% [2] Revenue Breakdown - Outdoor functional apparel segment grew 23% to $509 million [1] - Mountain outdoor apparel and equipment segment saw a 35% increase to $414 million [1] - Ball and racket equipment segment increased by 11% to $314 million [1] Regional Performance - Greater China revenue grew 42% to $410 million [1] - Asia-Pacific (excluding Greater China) revenue increased by 45% to $155 million [1] - Americas revenue rose by 6% to $395 million [1] - EMEA region revenue grew 18% to $276 million [1] Channel Performance - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel revenue increased by 40% to $641 million [1] - As of June 30, the number of outdoor functional apparel stores increased by 12% to 227 [1] - Mountain outdoor apparel and equipment stores grew by 58% to 256 [1] - Ball and racket equipment stores increased by 142% to 63 [1] Store Expansion - Arc'teryx added 7 new stores, with growth in footwear and women's categories [1] - Salomon's DTC channel grew by 63%, with a net addition of 16 stores in Greater China, totaling 234 [1] - Wilson's footwear business revenue doubled, with plans to open 50 new tennis 360 stores in China this year [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5][32] Core Insights - The report highlights that Amer Sports' Q1 performance exceeded both Bloomberg consensus expectations and the company's prior guidance, leading management to raise full-year revenue and EPS guidance. The company experienced double-digit growth across all business lines, channels, and regions, with manageable tariff risks [2][3][32] - In Q1 2025, Amer Sports reported a revenue increase of 23% year-on-year to $1.473 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $148 million, significantly up from $39 million in the same period last year. The gross margin and adjusted operating profit margin reached historical highs [7][9][11] - The management has adjusted the full-year revenue growth forecast to 15-17%, with an expected EPS of $0.67-0.72, reflecting confidence in the company's performance [27][32] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, revenue grew by 23% to $1.473 billion, with a fixed exchange rate growth of 26%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus of 16% and the company's previous guidance of 14-16% [2][7] - The adjusted gross margin increased by 330 basis points to 58.0%, exceeding expectations, driven by favorable channel, geographic, and product mix [9][11] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $299 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.3% [6][9] Business Segment Performance - Technical Apparel: Revenue increased by 28% to $664 million, with strong growth in women's and footwear categories [11][14] - Outdoor Performance: Revenue rose by 25% to $502 million, driven by strong DTC channel growth and successful product launches [11][14] - Ball & Racquet Sports: Revenue grew by 12% to $306 million, primarily driven by the Wilson Tennis 360 series [11][14] Regional Performance - Greater China: Revenue increased by 43%, driven by strong performance across all business lines [15] - North America: Revenue grew by 12%, with notable growth in Technical Apparel and Wilson Tennis products [15] - EMEA: Revenue rose by 12%, supported by Technical Apparel and Outdoor Performance [15] Channel Performance - DTC Channel: Revenue increased by 39% to $690 million, accounting for 47% of total revenue [7][15] - Wholesale Channel: Revenue grew by 12%, with a positive turnaround in Salomon's wholesale business [15] Management Guidance - The management has raised the full-year revenue growth forecast to 15-17%, with an adjusted EPS guidance of $0.67-0.72 [27][32] - For Q2 2025, revenue growth is expected to be between 16-18%, with an adjusted gross margin of 57-58% [31][32]

Group 1: E-commerce and Taxation - The EU plans to eliminate the tax exemption for small packages valued under 150 euros, which accounted for approximately 4.6 billion packages last year, with over 90% originating from China [1] - Japan is also considering similar tax changes, potentially ending the exemption for imports valued under 10,000 yen by 2026 [1] - Cross-border e-commerce platforms like Shein and Temu are facing increased pressure as they seek growth outside the US market, which has already imposed taxes on packages valued under 800 USD [1] Group 2: Baidu's Financial Performance - Baidu's Q1 2025 core revenue reached 25.5 billion yuan, a 7% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising 48% to 7.63 billion yuan [2] - The company's cloud business grew by 42% year-on-year, and AI-related revenue saw over 100% growth due to the launch of a low-cost large model [2] - The autonomous vehicle service "Luobo Kuaipao" expanded to 15 cities globally, providing over 1.4 million rides in Q1, a 75% increase [2] Group 3: Great Wall Motors' Wei Brand - Great Wall Motors' Wei brand held an event emphasizing user-centric changes to enhance product strength and user experience [3] - The 2025 Wei brand Blue Mountain SUV was launched, priced between 299,800 and 326,800 yuan, maintaining the previous model's starting price [3] - The company aims to establish a stronger direct service system, expanding to 600 locations across over 200 cities this year [3] Group 4: New Blue Mountain SUV Features - The new Blue Mountain SUV features the latest Hi4 plug-in hybrid technology, with a total power output of 408 horsepower and a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of 4.9 seconds [4] - It offers two battery pack options with WLTC electric ranges of 185 km and 220 km, and a theoretical combined range of up to 1343 km [4] Group 5: Smart Features of the New Blue Mountain - The new Blue Mountain is equipped with the latest Coffee OS 3 and Qualcomm Snapdragon 8295 chip, supporting advanced driver assistance systems [5] - It includes over 30 sensors for full-scene navigation assistance, enhancing the driving experience [5] - Great Wall Motors announced a next-generation intelligent super platform compatible with various vehicle types and powertrains [5] Group 6: Chanel's Market Strategy - Chanel's revenue and operating profit fell by 4.3% and 30% respectively in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of profit decline [6] - The Asia-Pacific region saw the fastest revenue decline, with a 7.1% drop, particularly in mainland China [6] - Despite challenges, Chanel plans to open 15 flagship stores in China this year, focusing on second and third-tier cities [6] Group 7: Meitu's Investment from Alibaba - Meitu announced a $250 million investment from Alibaba in the form of convertible bonds, with a 1% annual interest rate [7] - This partnership will prioritize the promotion of Meitu's AI e-commerce tools within Alibaba's ecosystem [7] - Meitu commits to purchasing at least 560 million yuan in cloud services from Alibaba over the next three years [7] Group 8: Amer Sports' Performance - Amer Sports reported a 23% year-on-year revenue increase and a 196% rise in adjusted net profit in Q1, driven by strong performance across regions and product categories [8] - The company raised its full-year revenue growth guidance by 2 percentage points to 15%-17% [8] Group 9: Berkshire Hathaway's Exit from Kraft Heinz - Berkshire Hathaway's exit from the Kraft Heinz board suggests potential divestment of its 27.5% stake in the company [9] - Kraft Heinz is considering selling its meat brands amid a 4.7% decline in comparable revenue [9] - The company has lowered its full-year performance guidance due to macroeconomic challenges [9] Group 10: Google's AI Service Launch - Google introduced a new AI service, Google AI Ultra, priced at $249.99 per month, which includes 30TB of cloud storage and YouTube premium [10] - This service integrates advanced AI capabilities and is aimed at deep research applications [10] Group 11: Elon Musk's Plans for Tesla - Elon Musk confirmed he will continue as Tesla's CEO for the next five years unless unforeseen circumstances arise [11] - Tesla plans to expand its autonomous taxi service to Los Angeles and San Francisco following its initial launch in Austin [11] - Musk mentioned the potential for Starlink to become an independent publicly traded company [11] Group 12: XPeng's Financial Results - XPeng reported a Q1 gross margin of 15.6%, a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points, despite a slight revenue decline [12] - The company delivered 94,008 vehicles in Q1, a 2500-unit increase from the previous quarter [12] - XPeng expects Q2 revenue between 17.5 billion and 18.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 115.7% to 130.5% [12] Group 13: Li Auto's i8 Specifications - Li Auto's i8 SUV features two battery options with capacities of 90.1 kWh and 97.8 kWh, offering ranges of 670 km and 720 km respectively [13] - The vehicle supports fast charging capabilities, allowing for a 500 km range in just 10 minutes [13] Group 14: BYD Stock Performance - BYD's A and H shares both reached historical highs, with A shares hitting 404 yuan and H shares surpassing 460 HKD [14][15] - BYD's market capitalization reached 1.22 trillion yuan, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 40% [15] - The company is set to receive an estimated $2 billion in passive fund inflows following its inclusion in the Hang Seng Tech Index [15] Group 15: BMW's Stock Buyback Plan - BMW announced a stock buyback plan of up to 2 billion euros, marking its third major buyback in three years [16] - The plan includes repurchases of both common and preferred shares, with a maximum of 350 million euros allocated for preferred shares [16] Group 16: Alibaba's Entertainment Division Rebranding - Alibaba's entertainment division has been renamed to Whale Entertainment Group, with Alibaba Pictures rebranded as Damai Entertainment [17] - The rebranding aligns with Alibaba's strategy to refocus on its core mission of delivering happiness [17] - The division achieved positive adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2025, driven by a 12% revenue increase to 5.6 billion yuan [17]

以下文章来源于小马宋 ，作者小马宋 新消费导读 解读千亿安踏。 作者 ： 小马宋 编辑：竺天 审核： Single 来源： 小马宋 世界上大部分的变化，好像都是悄悄发生的，但是帷幕解开的时候会突然给你一个惊喜。 比如从过去几年，各个宣传渠道对芯片制造难度的分析上看，大家可能会很悲观，也很难相信华为会绕开美国的芯片制裁。 但是变化就那么慢慢地发生了。 就像突然有一天华为告诉你，它解决了芯片的问题。 在deepseek这件事上，大众有同样的感受。因为就在仅仅半年前，我见到过的AI领域的专业人士（包括投资人，从业者）还都觉得中美在这 个领域有特别大的差距。 小马宋 . 小马宋战略营销咨询公司创始人，罗辑思维首席营销顾问。咨询过的品牌有：元气森林，瑞幸，得到，云耕物作，babycare，半天妖，爸爸糖，南城香，云 海肴，古茗，熊猫不走，隅田川咖啡，食族人，甜啦啦，遇见小面，一只酸奶牛，苏阁鲜茶等。 这是新消费智库第 2 6 2 1 期文章 更不用说GPT出来的时候，国内各个大模型产品遭遇的群嘲。 故事的另一个版本，今天发生在体育领域。 2025年3月19日，安踏体育发布了2024年财报，全年收入同比增长13.6%，达 ...