[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 1 月 PMI 向下，BCI 向上 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 1 月 PMI 向下，制造业、非制造业环比均回落 0.8 个点；BCI 向上，BCI 环比回升 3.9 个点。我们理解主要是 环比指标和同比指标的区别。PMI 是一个环比指标，BCI 在指标设计上则兼容环比和同比。2025 年春节在 1 月 底，2026 年在 2 月中下旬，1 月企业普遍处于正常开工状态，所以同比会比较有利。 据万得数据（下同），1 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3，低于前值的 50.1；非制造业 PMI 为 49.4，低于前值 50.2。 1 月 BCI 为 53.7，高于前值的 49.8。 ⚫ 制造业 PMI 的放缓幅度要略大于季节性，历史上同样春节偏晚的 2015 年 1 月、2018 年 1 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of insightful economic analysis and market predictions in today's complex financial environment [1] - The global macro research team at Nomura focuses on economic forecasting, including growth, inflation, fiscal conditions, and central bank policies [3] Group 1: Team Responsibilities and Approach - The core mission of the global macro research team is to conduct economic forecasts and identify market mispricing to provide strategic advice [3] - The research philosophy is that forecasting is more of an art than a science, incorporating data analysis, economic modeling, and geopolitical factors [3] - The team engages in field research and discussions with policymakers, scholars, and businesses to form comprehensive economic outlooks [3] Group 2: Leadership and Team Dynamics - The role of the global macro research head has shifted from direct research to management, focusing on guiding research direction and fostering team collaboration [5] - The team values stability and consistency, which allows for open challenges to predictive views and stress-testing of opinions [8] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The team's ability to present bold, contrarian views sets them apart in the market, emphasizing the importance of original insights over consensus [8] - Nomura's strong presence in Asia is highlighted as a significant advantage, especially as the region's economic power grows [8] Group 4: Alignment with Corporate Mission - The research team aligns with Nomura's mission to leverage financial markets for global challenges and promote social prosperity [9] - By identifying strong economies and warning against weak markets, the team helps guide global capital towards productive areas [9]