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农林牧渔行业2025年中期投资策略:外部环境多变,农业防御优势凸显
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-05-05 09:15
Group 1: Swine Industry - The domestic supply and demand for pigs is expected to improve marginally by Q2 2025, with pig prices supported and entering a phase of gradual upward movement. External factors such as tariff-driven increases in feed raw material prices and higher costs for imported meat are also contributing positively to pig prices. The swine sector is highlighted as a defensive asset amid macroeconomic shocks, reinforcing investment logic. Recommended stocks include Wens Foodstuff Group, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [4][86]. - In 2024, China's pork production is projected to reach 56.75 million tons, accounting for 49% of global production, with consumption at 57.95 million tons, representing 50% of global consumption. This positions China as the world's largest pork producer and consumer [13][15]. - The average price of pork in 2024 is estimated at 16.8 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of 11.8% year-on-year. The swine farming market size is expected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan, up 11.2% year-on-year [17][32]. Group 2: Poultry Industry - The demand for white chicken remains resilient despite uncertainties from U.S.-China tariff policies and avian influenza outbreaks. The consumption of white feather broilers is expected to improve marginally, with recommended stocks including San Nong Development and He Feng Co [5][94]. - In 2024, the total output of meat chickens in China is projected to reach 14.84 billion, with white feather broilers accounting for 60.85% of this figure. The output of white feather broilers is expected to increase by 2.2% year-on-year [99]. Group 3: Animal Health - The market for piglets and poultry chicks is stable, with a solid demand for poultry chicks supported by increasing poultry farming. The market for ruminant and pet vaccines is also expected to remain robust, with recommended stocks including Bio-Group, Kexin Biology, and Pulaike [6]. Group 4: Planting and Seeds - The focus on food security is emphasized, with companies involved in high-yield genetically modified soybeans likely to benefit from the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. The third batch of genetically modified corn varieties is expected to be approved for planting, which may increase the area under cultivation [7]. Group 5: Feed Industry - The recovery of the swine sector is expected to boost domestic demand for feed, while overseas markets present new growth opportunities. The demand for pig feed is anticipated to rebound as pig farming profitability improves and pig stocks gradually recover [8]. Group 6: Pet Industry - The upcoming shopping festivals are expected to drive demand for pet food, with domestic brands likely to gain market share due to increased tariffs on imported high-end products. Recommended stocks include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co, and Petty Co [6].
普莱柯:公司信息更新报告:猪苗经营短期承压,禽苗化药发力增长-20250427
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-04-27 00:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.043 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 16.77% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 93 million yuan, down 46.82% [5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 279 million yuan, an increase of 18.32% year-on-year, and a net profit of 53 million yuan, up 93.75% [5] - The company is facing short-term pressure in its piglet business due to intensified industry competition, but is focusing on growth in poultry vaccines and pharmaceuticals, as well as increasing sales in ruminant and pet vaccines [5][6] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 downwards and added a forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 171 million, 207 million, and 249 million yuan for 2025-2027 respectively [5] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2025 is estimated at 1.211 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.1% [9] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 is reported at 59.71%, a decrease of 4.70 percentage points, while the net margin is 18.99%, an increase of 7.39 percentage points [7] - R&D expenses for 2024 amounted to 106 million yuan, representing 10.17% of total revenue [7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.49 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.7 [9]