证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 发布时间：2026-03-03 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2961.5 | | 52 | 周最高 | 3158.8 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2478.53 | 行业相对指数表现 -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 2026-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《现代化为矛，稳定生产为盾》 - 2026.02.11 农林牧渔行业报告 （2026.2.24-2026.2.28） 猪价创新低 ⚫ 行情回顾：上涨 节后第一周，农林牧渔（申万）指数大幅涨 4.01%，在申万 31 个 一级行业中排名第 14。农业子板块中，除水产养殖外，其余子板块均 上涨。其中节前跌幅较大的种植业、种子等板块反弹较多；而养殖板 块则继 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector has shown signs of recovery, with the agricultural index rising by 2.23%, ranking 11th among 31 primary industries [12][15]. - The pig price has experienced fluctuations, initially strong but later declining, with an average price of 12.83 CNY/kg for the week, down 1.06% from the previous week [6][17]. - The white feather chicken market has seen a rebound in chick prices, with an average price of 2.7 CNY/chick, and a rise in broiler chicken prices to 3.85 CNY/kg, up 4.05% from the previous week [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector has rebounded, with the agricultural index increasing by 2.23% [12]. - The pig farming sector continues to face challenges, with a decline in prices despite some recovery in demand [15]. 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs - The average pig price fluctuated between 12.9 and 13.0 CNY/kg, ending the week at 12.51 CNY/kg [6][17]. - The average weight of pigs at market was 127.86 kg, down 1.03 kg from the previous week [19]. - The breeding capacity is slowly decreasing, with a December count of 39.61 million breeding sows, down 1.83% from Q3 [20]. 2.2 White Feather Chicken - Chick prices have rebounded to 2.7 CNY/chick, while broiler prices have increased to 3.85 CNY/kg [30]. - The supply of breeding chickens remains sufficient, with 40% of the annual breeding stock imported [30]. 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - The national average price for white sugar is 5295 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 10 CNY/ton [34]. - The price of corn has slightly increased to 2314 CNY/ton, up 4 CNY/ton from the previous week [34].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in pig prices by 6% to 12.21 CNY/kg, while the price of white feather chicken products has increased to 9,400 CNY/ton [3][4] - The report indicates that the pig farming sector has been profitable for three consecutive weeks, with a profit of 25.1 CNY per head [3] - The report recommends continued investment in the pig farming sector, particularly in companies like Muyuan Foods, Tiankang Biological, Wens Foodstuff, and Lihua Agricultural [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has decreased to 127.86 kg, with the proportion of heavy pigs (over 150 kg) at 5.78% [3] - The price of two-yuan sows remains stable at 1,559 CNY/head, while the price of piglets has increased by 3.3% week-on-week [3] - The report anticipates a new wave of price declines post-Chinese New Year due to expected capacity reduction in the pig industry [3] Chicken Farming - The price of white feather chicken products has risen to 9,400 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.6% [4] - Yellow feather chicken farming has been profitable for over five months, with an average price of 14.95 CNY/kg [4] - The report notes a historical high in the number of breeding stock for white feather chickens, with a total of 157.42 million sets updated in December 2025 [4] Cattle Industry - As of the end of 2025, the cattle stock in China has decreased by 8.6%, with expectations for prices to rise in the first half of 2026 [8] - The report suggests that the decline in cattle stock is a precursor to rising beef prices, with historical data supporting this trend [8] Pet Food Market - The pet market in China is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2025, reaching a total market size of 312.6 billion CNY [7] - The pet food market share has increased to 53.7%, with significant growth in core brands [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - Short-term recovery in pig prices is expected, while the breeding capacity remains high [3] - The industry is undergoing a significant policy transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and encouraging innovation [6][17] - The high-quality development of the industry is essential, with cost-leading and farmer-inclusive companies likely to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [6][17] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine breeding sector saw a decline of 4.9%, primarily due to market sentiment and concerns over capacity reduction [5][16] - In 2025, the national pig output reached 71.973 million heads, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year, while the breeding sow inventory decreased by 2.9% [5][16] - As of January 18, 2026, pig prices rose to 13.25 CNY/kg, indicating a recovery in the industry [5][16] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is experiencing a contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," with the price of broiler chickens at 3.65 CNY/kg, down 3.18% week-on-week [7][18] - The impact of avian influenza in France may lead to reduced imports of breeding chickens, potentially increasing prices for parent stock [7][18] - The industry is expected to see a continued advantage for leading companies due to integrated operations and contract farming [7][18] 3. Feed Industry - The prices of various aquatic products have shown recovery, with significant year-on-year increases for certain species [19][20] - Hai Da Group is recommended for its clear long-term growth path and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio [20] 4. Pet Industry - The competitive landscape in the pet food sector is becoming more concentrated, with leading brands outperforming mid-tier brands [10][21] - Despite concerns over Q4 2025 performance, the growth outlook for the pet industry remains strong, with domestic sales expected to continue growing [10][21] - Recommended companies include Zhongchong Co., which is positioned for growth in both domestic and international markets [11][21] 5. Agricultural Products - Domestic soybean meal prices fell by 2.1%, while corn prices increased by 0.8% due to declining inventories [26] - The egg market is showing strength, with prices rising by 1.4% [26] - The agricultural sector is viewed as having significant investment value due to its historical low valuations and the need to protect farmers' incomes [26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The agricultural sector continues to perform poorly, with the agricultural index down 3.26%, ranking 27th among 31 primary industries [4][14] - Pig prices are showing a slight upward trend, with an average price of 12.44 CNY/kg, up 1.92% from the previous week [5][20] - The supply of pigs is expected to decrease in the second half of 2026, potentially leading to a new upward cycle in pig prices [5][23] - The white feather chicken market is facing downward pressure, with chick prices dropping to 2.7 CNY/bird, down 1 CNY from before the hatching pause [7][33] - The planting sector shows mixed trends, with sugar prices slightly decreasing and cotton prices increasing [37] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector continues to underperform, with the agricultural index down 3.27% this week [14] - The pig farming sector is leading the decline due to recent price fluctuations [17] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - Prices are slightly recovering, with an average price of 12.44 CNY/kg, and piglet prices rising to 336 CNY/head, an increase of 31 CNY from last week [5][20] - The industry remains in a loss position, with expectations of continued losses as supply pressures persist [5][23] - The production capacity is expected to continue decreasing, with a potential new cycle beginning in the second half of 2026 [23][24] White Feather Chicken - Chick prices have decreased due to weak demand and an accumulation of breeding eggs during the hatching pause [7][33] - The overall supply remains high despite a decrease in the number of breeding stock updates due to avian influenza outbreaks [7][33] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly decreased to 5345 CNY/ton, while cotton prices have increased to 15978 CNY/ton [37] - Soybean prices have shown minor adjustments, with Brazilian soybeans at 3611 CNY/ton and U.S. soybeans at 4638 CNY/ton, both down by approximately 1% [37]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][35] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector experienced a slight decline, with the agricultural index down by 0.08%, ranking 10th among 31 primary industries [4][12] - The pig price is fluctuating at a low level, with expectations of continued capacity reduction due to oversupply [5][15] - The white feather chicken market shows stable chick prices and a slight increase in meat chicken prices, supported by holiday stocking [6][28] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector saw a minor decline, with the agricultural index down 0.08% [12] - The animal health and pig farming sectors led the gains due to ongoing low pig prices [13] 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs - Pig prices are fluctuating around 11 CNY/kg, showing a trend of bottoming out [5][15] - Supply exceeds demand, with expectations of continued increases in pig output due to prior increases in piglet supply [15][18] - The industry is currently experiencing overall losses, with expectations that pig prices have not yet reached their lowest point [18] 2.2 White Feather Chicken - As of December 12, chick prices are stable at 3.7 CNY/chick, with an average profit of approximately 0.8 CNY per chick [6][28] - Meat chicken prices have increased by 1.39% to 3.65 CNY/jin, supported by holiday demand [6][28] 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices continue to decline, with an average price of 5393 CNY/ton as of December 12, down 56 CNY from the previous week [30] - Soybean prices have decreased, with Brazilian soybeans at 3762 CNY/ton and U.S. soybeans at 4329 CNY/ton, both down 2.1% [30] - Corn prices are rising, with an average price of 2299 CNY/ton, up 19 CNY from the previous week [30]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the pig price is in a second bottoming trend, with ongoing capacity reduction expected. The average price of pigs as of November 28 is 11.09 yuan/kg, down 0.37 yuan/kg from the previous week, reflecting a continued supply surplus and weak demand [5][16]. - The report highlights that the October capacity reduction data for pigs exceeded expectations, leading to a notable increase in the pig farming sector, while the aquaculture sector experienced significant adjustments [14][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the situation regarding avian influenza in France, which has impacted the supply of breeding chickens [31][32]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The agriculture sector performed well last week, with the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rising by 1.57%, ranking 21st among 31 primary industries [11][14]. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - The average price of pigs is currently in a downward adjustment phase, primarily due to oversupply and weak demand. The industry is experiencing significant losses, with self-breeding pigs losing an average of 158 yuan per head as of November 28 [16][17]. - The Ministry of Agriculture reported that the number of breeding sows decreased to 39.9 million in October, achieving half of the target reduction of 1 million sows [18][19]. Broilers - The price of broiler chicks remains stable at 3.7 yuan/chick, with an average profit of approximately 0.8 yuan per chick. However, the terminal consumption remains weak, limiting price increases [31][32]. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices continue to decline, with the national average price at 5,493 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from the previous week. In contrast, soybean prices have shown some rebound, with Brazilian soybeans at 3,851 yuan/ton, down 0.9% [35][36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The agricultural sector has shown defensive characteristics amid recent market adjustments, with the agricultural index down 3.45%, ranking 9th among 31 primary industries [5][12] - The pig market is experiencing weak prices, with a stabilization around 11.50 CNY/kg, driven by seasonal demand expectations, but overall supply exceeds demand, limiting price increases [5][16] - October saw a significant reduction in pig production capacity, with the number of breeding sows falling below 40 million for the first time in 17 months, indicating a potential for price increases in the second half of 2026 [6][18] - The white feather chicken market is facing stable chick prices but declining meat prices, with a notable decrease in the number of breeding chicks updated, indicating supply chain pressures [30][31] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector demonstrated resilience with a smaller adjustment compared to the broader market, as the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 fell by 3.90% and 3.77% respectively [12] - Among agricultural sub-sectors, only aquaculture and seeds saw price increases, while others declined [15] Livestock Industry Tracking Pigs - Prices are fluctuating around 11.50 CNY/kg, with expectations of a demand increase due to seasonal factors, but slaughter rates remain low [16] - Losses in pig farming are increasing, with self-bred pigs losing an average of 136 CNY per head, and purchased piglets losing 235 CNY per head [17] - The Ministry of Agriculture reported a 1.1% decrease in breeding stock in October, with a target of reducing 1 million sows being halfway achieved [18][19] White Feather Chicken - Chick prices remain stable at 3.7 CNY per chick, with average profits around 0.8 CNY per chick, while meat prices have slightly decreased to 3.52 CNY per jin [30] - The number of breeding chicks updated has decreased significantly, with a 19.01% drop compared to the previous year, indicating potential supply issues [30][31] Planting Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have decreased to 5512 CNY/ton, down 148 CNY from the previous week [35] - Soybean prices have also fallen, with Brazilian soybeans at 3816 CNY/ton, down 7.4% [35] - Corn prices have shown an upward trend, reaching 2227 CNY/ton, an increase of 16 CNY from the previous week [37]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing significant supply pressure in the fourth quarter, with a focus on capacity reduction [5][19] - The overall market performance shows that the agriculture sector has risen by 2.70%, ranking 8th among 31 primary industries [12][14] - The pig price continues to decline, with an average price of 11.56 CNY/kg as of November 14, 2025, indicating ongoing supply pressure [5][16] - The white feather chicken market is stabilizing, with prices for chicken seedlings at 3.7 CNY/piece and broiler prices at 3.55 CNY/kg as of November 14, 2025 [27] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agriculture sector has shown resilience, with the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rising while the broader market indices fell [12][14] - Key sub-sectors such as agricultural product processing and animal vaccines have seen significant price increases [14] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - The average pig price has decreased by 0.31 CNY/kg over the week, with ongoing supply pressures expected to persist [5][16] - The average loss for self-bred pigs is 115 CNY per head, while for purchased piglets, it is 206 CNY per head, indicating increasing financial strain [17] - Capacity reduction is anticipated to accelerate due to low prices and regulatory pressures [19] White Feather Chicken - The price of chicken seedlings remains stable, with a profit of approximately 0.8 CNY per piece [27] - The supply of grandparent stock has decreased significantly, with a 19.01% reduction compared to the previous year [27][30] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly rebounded, with an average price of 5660 CNY/ton as of November 14, 2025 [35] - Soybean prices have increased, with Brazilian soybeans at 4123 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.8% rise [35] - Corn prices have shown slight fluctuations, averaging 2211 CNY/ton, up by 12 CNY/ton [36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1]. Core Views - The report highlights a continued decline in pig prices and strong performance in pet food sales during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [1]. - The industry is currently trading at lower price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios compared to historical averages, indicating potential for valuation recovery [1]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In October 2025, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose by 0.19%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which had a return of approximately 0% [8][11]. - The pet food sector experienced a decline, while the wood processing sector showed strong gains [11]. Livestock Farming Data Tracking - Pig prices continued to decline in October 2025, with an average price of 11.52 yuan/kg, down 11.46% month-on-month and 34.77% year-on-year [16]. - The average price for white feather broilers was 3.38 yuan/jin, showing a slight decrease of 0.29% month-on-month and 7.65% year-on-year [26]. Pet Food Sales Performance - During the "Double Eleven" period in 2025, total sales of pet food reached 9.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.3% [35]. - Pet food exports in September 2025 totaled 30,500 tons, up 18.78% year-on-year, while the cumulative export amount from January to September was 1.057 billion USD, down 3.73% year-on-year [32][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Muyuan Foods, Pulaike, QiuLe Seed Industry, GuaiBao Pet, ZhongChong Co., and Petty Co., all rated as "Buy" [1].