证 券 研 究 报 告 中牧股份（600195）2025 年中报点评 推荐（维持） 化药延续增长，经营同比改善 目标价：8.7 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年中报：上半年实现营收 27.93 亿，同比增长 12.63%，归母净 利 8176.20 万元，同比增长 30.18%，扣非归母净利 8166.70 万元，同比增长 39.35%。 评论： ❖ 风险提示：下游景气度走弱，新品研发与推广不及预期，产品竞争加剧等。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 6,017 | 6,648 | 7,222 | 7,714 | | 同比增速(%) | 11.3% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 6.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 71 | 232 | 295 | 350 | | 同比增速(%) | -82.4% | 227.8% | 26.8% | 18.6% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.07 | 0.23 | 0.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 8.96 CNY over the next six months, up from the previous rating [1][10]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant performance recovery, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit driven by its pet business and ongoing research and development efforts [1][7]. - The revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.793 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.63%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 82 million CNY, up 30.19% year-on-year [7]. - The company is focusing on large customer development and synergistic services in the animal health sector, which is expected to enhance its profitability [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 6,017 million CNY, 6,569 million CNY, 7,190 million CNY, and 7,798 million CNY respectively, with growth rates of 11.30%, 9.17%, 9.46%, and 8.46% [2][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 71 million CNY in 2024A, increasing to 287 million CNY in 2025E, 351 million CNY in 2026E, and 386 million CNY in 2027E, with growth rates of -82.41%, 305.33%, 22.12%, and 9.99% respectively [2][9]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.07 CNY in 2024A, rising to 0.28 CNY in 2025E, 0.34 CNY in 2026E, and 0.38 CNY in 2027E [2][9]. Business Segment Performance - The pharmaceutical segment reported strong performance with sales revenue of 999 million CNY, while the biological products segment faced a decline in revenue to 450 million CNY due to increased competition [7]. - The feed segment generated revenue of 536 million CNY, indicating stable performance despite some pricing pressures [7]. - The company is actively investing in the pet health product market, with significant advancements in product development and brand promotion [7]. Research and Development - The company invested 60 million CNY in R&D in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.73%, with a research expense ratio of 2.14% [7]. - The company is focusing on developing vaccines and pharmaceuticals for pets, with several new products launched during the reporting period [7]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 32 times for 2025, which is competitive compared to its peers in the animal health industry, which have an average PE of 31 times [10][11]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 7.577 billion CNY, with a total asset value of 8.882 billion CNY [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [7][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.793 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.63%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 82 million yuan, up 30.19% year-on-year [5]. - The animal vaccine business continues to face pressure, while the pharmaceutical and feed segments have shown significant revenue growth [5][6]. - The pharmaceutical segment achieved nearly 1 billion yuan in revenue, a substantial increase of 57.36% year-on-year, with improved gross margins [6]. - The feed segment also saw a notable revenue increase of 23.54%, reaching 536 million yuan [6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 6.017 billion yuan in 2024 to 7.896 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.55% [8][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 708.8 million yuan in 2024 to 3589.8 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant recovery and growth trajectory [8][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 0.07 yuan in 2024 to 0.35 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [8][9].

Financial Overview - The total assets of Yifan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. increased from CNY 12,285,788,088.75 at the beginning of the period to CNY 12,674,139,895.70 at the end, representing a growth of approximately 3.17% [1][2] - Total liabilities rose from CNY 3,858,992,750.77 to CNY 4,017,412,350.66, indicating an increase of about 4.1% [2][3] - The total equity increased from CNY 8,426,795,337.98 to CNY 8,656,727,545.04, reflecting a growth of approximately 2.72% [2][3] Income Statement Highlights - The total operating revenue for the first half of 2025 was CNY 2,635,110,083.18, slightly up from CNY 2,632,089,783.35 in the same period of 2024 [3][4] - Total operating costs decreased from CNY 2,363,162,281.95 to CNY 2,316,453,207.97, showing a reduction of about 1.98% [4] - Net profit for the first half of 2025 was CNY 284,158,135.82, compared to CNY 212,445,979.23 in the first half of 2024, marking an increase of approximately 33.8% [4][5] Cash Flow Analysis - Net cash flow from operating activities improved significantly, rising from CNY 143,774,218.95 in the first half of 2024 to CNY 286,097,071.23 in the first half of 2025 [5] - Cash flow from investing activities showed a net outflow of CNY 159,041,410.09, compared to a larger outflow of CNY 195,466,241.92 in the previous year [5] - Cash flow from financing activities resulted in a net outflow of CNY 147,413,242.53, contrasting with a net inflow of CNY 207,793,148.58 in the first half of 2024 [5] Balance Sheet Insights - Current assets totaled CNY 3,967,724,843.29 at the end of the period, up from CNY 3,778,271,166.02 at the beginning, indicating a growth of approximately 5.03% [1][2] - Non-current assets increased from CNY 8,507,516,922.73 to CNY 8,706,415,052.41, reflecting a growth of about 2.34% [1][2] - The company's cash and cash equivalents decreased from CNY 889,388,507.75 to CNY 785,909,109.30, a decline of approximately 11.6% [1][2]

Core Insights - The pet economy in China is experiencing significant growth, driven by the changing attitudes of younger consumers who now view pets as family members rather than mere animals [3][5] - The Chinese pet market is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, and is expected to reach 330 billion yuan by 2025 [3] - The animal health market in China ranks second globally and presents substantial growth opportunities, as many needs remain unmet [3][4] Company Insights - Merck, a Fortune 500 company, reported a revenue of $9.3 billion in 2024, providing vaccines, pharmaceuticals, diagnostic products, and professional services for pets and livestock [2] - As of July 16, Merck's market capitalization was approximately $70 billion [2] - Merck has established a research and production base in Suzhou, China, to better meet local demands and strengthen its supply chain [4] Challenges and Opportunities - The global trade environment poses challenges, particularly regarding tariffs, which can increase costs for pet owners and affect the animal health market [4] - Merck is focusing on local production and supply chain strategies to mitigate tariff impacts and has implemented short-term measures like increasing inventory [4][5] - Despite economic uncertainties, pet owners are willing to invest in their pets' health, indicating a resilient market with rising demand for veterinary services and new treatment options [5]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.704 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 438 million yuan for the year 2024, with a 20.23% year-on-year growth in pharmaceutical industrial revenue driven by optimized marketing strategies [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.704 billion yuan and a net profit of 438 million yuan [1] - The pharmaceutical industrial revenue grew by 20.23% year-on-year due to enhanced marketing model adjustments [1] Group 2: Market Participation and Product Offerings - The company actively participated in national drug procurement projects, securing 14 core specifications in the third batch of national traditional Chinese medicine procurement [1] - A total of 86 products from the company were included in the latest national medical insurance directory, with 35 classified as Category A and 51 as Category B [1] Group 3: Marketing Strategy and Network Development - The company has established a nationwide marketing network covering over 6,000 medical institutions across more than 30 provinces, integrating a full-chain service system from urban public hospitals to retail terminals [3] - The marketing strategy focuses on cardiovascular and respiratory diseases while expanding into pediatric and digestive health markets, utilizing diverse sales channels and marketing strategies to drive growth [2][3] - The company emphasizes a comprehensive marketing approach with a focus on sales capability enhancement across different business units, targeting commercial sales, medical terminal markets, and retail pharmacies [3]

一、报告期内公司主营业务分行业、分产品经营情况 | （一）主营业务分行业情况 | | --- | 单位：元 币种：人民币 | | | | 主营业务分行业情况 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分行业 | 营业收入 | 营业成本 | 毛利率 | 营业收入 比上年增 | 营业成本 比上年增 | 毛利率比 上年增减 | | | | | （%） | | | | | | | | | 减（%） | 减（%） | （%） | | 药品 | 169,362,894.27 | 119,454,668.23 | 29.47 | -29.20 | -6.27 | 减少 17.25 个百分点 | | 医疗器 械 | 13,445,010.16 | 2,341,850.40 | 82.58 | -25.07 | -23.96 | 减 少 0.26 个百分点 | | 商业运 营 | 45,976,063.32 | 11,415,206.57 | 75.17 | -14.26 | -2.42 | 减 少 3.01 个百分点 | | 会展业 务 | 16,473,78 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" and maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, with total revenue of 1.043 billion yuan, down 16.77% year-on-year, and a net profit of 93 million yuan, down 46.82% year-on-year. However, the first quarter of 2025 showed a recovery with revenue of 279 million yuan, up 18.32% year-on-year, and a net profit of 53 million yuan, up 93.75% year-on-year, driven by growth in poultry vaccines and pharmaceuticals [4][5] - The company is facing pressure in the pig vaccine segment due to increased competition, while the poultry vaccine and pharmaceutical segments are showing growth. The pet vaccine segment is also emerging as a new growth area, with sales exceeding 46 million yuan in 2024 [5] - The company is implementing marketing strategy adjustments and organizational changes to strengthen cost control and core competitiveness, anticipating a recovery in performance as the pig vaccine market stabilizes and new growth opportunities in pet vaccines arise [6] Financial Summary - The company’s financial performance is projected to improve from 2025 to 2027, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.49 yuan, 0.61 yuan, and 0.68 yuan respectively. The revenue is expected to grow from 1.131 billion yuan in 2025 to 1.259 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit projected to increase from 169 million yuan to 237 million yuan over the same period [7][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" and it is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, with total revenue of 1.043 billion yuan, down 16.77% year-on-year, and a net profit of 93 million yuan, down 46.82% year-on-year. However, in Q1 2025, the company showed signs of recovery with a revenue of 279 million yuan, up 18.32% year-on-year, and a net profit of 53 million yuan, up 93.75% year-on-year, driven by growth in poultry vaccines and pharmaceuticals [4][5] - The performance of different vaccine products varies significantly, with poultry vaccines showing continuous growth, while pig vaccines are under pressure due to increased competition in the swine breeding industry. The company’s revenue from poultry vaccines and antibodies increased by 3.31% and 33.80% respectively in 2024 and Q1 2025, while revenue from pig vaccines decreased by 22.58% and 11.64% respectively [5] - The company is expected to recover as it adjusts its marketing strategy and implements organizational changes, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 being 0.49 yuan, 0.61 yuan, and 0.68 yuan respectively, maintaining an "Add" rating [6] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 13.70 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 4.7 billion yuan. The company has a total share capital of 346 million shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 15.2% and a P/E ratio of 50.74 [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.043 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 16.77% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 93 million yuan, down 46.82% [5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 279 million yuan, an increase of 18.32% year-on-year, and a net profit of 53 million yuan, up 93.75% [5] - The company is facing short-term pressure in its piglet business due to intensified industry competition, but is focusing on growth in poultry vaccines and pharmaceuticals, as well as increasing sales in ruminant and pet vaccines [5][6] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 downwards and added a forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 171 million, 207 million, and 249 million yuan for 2025-2027 respectively [5] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2025 is estimated at 1.211 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.1% [9] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 is reported at 59.71%, a decrease of 4.70 percentage points, while the net margin is 18.99%, an increase of 7.39 percentage points [7] - R&D expenses for 2024 amounted to 106 million yuan, representing 10.17% of total revenue [7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.49 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.7 [9]