推荐建发股份的时机在于去年 12 月中旬仓位洗净后，目前 9 元左右的 位置稳健，是短期利空出尽后的最佳配置时机。从相对估值、股息率和 NAV 来看，公司折价深，安全垫充裕，攻防兼备。 建发国际深耕高能级城市，选择优质土地储备项目。截至 2025 年中期， 公司未售土地储备面积约为 1,500 万平方米，对应货值 2,700 亿元，相 当于 2024 年销售额的两倍左右。土储周转速度快且质量高。 对于未来一段时间内地产基本面的判断是什么？ 各个城市企稳时间点会有所不同。基本面最好的城市如北京、上海和成都，有 望在今年三季度末或四季度逐步企稳，中概率情形可能要到 2027 年，小概率 则是在今年上半年。因此，在未来一段时间里，如果数据边际回调且股价盘整， 从一年维度投资博弈视角来看，目前是一个较高性价比的建仓时机。只要资金 进入，这个板块就能迅速反弹 30%至 40%。 建发股份 20260223 摘要 房地产市场挂牌量下降，价格跌幅收窄，部分城市或已触底，配置地产 股的必要性增加。多数股票估值仍低于去年三季度水平，折价空间 30%-40%。未来行情依赖核心城市量价及政策突破。 北京、上海和成都等基本面较好的城 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][7] Core Views - The company has reported a revenue of 14.30 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.18%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 690 million yuan, down 14.39% year-on-year [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.8 billion yuan (before tax) for every 10 shares, resulting in a total dividend payout of 8.08 billion yuan for the year, achieving a dividend payout ratio of 117% and a dividend yield of approximately 8% [2] - The company is actively responding to short-term revenue pressures by organizing promotional events and exploring new business models, including a full industry chain platform for home improvement and smart home services [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's core business revenue from leasing and services was 12.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.52% year-on-year, accounting for 87.2% of total revenue [3] - The gross profit margin for 2024 decreased by 2.94 percentage points to 67.24%, primarily due to revenue pressure and increased depreciation costs from new projects [5] - The company expects revenues for 2025-2027 to be 14.85 billion yuan, 15.70 billion yuan, and 16.49 billion yuan respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 0.96 yuan, 1.02 yuan, and 1.09 yuan [6][9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leading home goods retailer in Southwest China, with a strong competitive position and a focus on long-term growth driven by urbanization and rising income levels [6][4] - The company is enhancing its operational stability by leveraging its property cost advantages and high penetration in the Chengdu market [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the home goods market, with ongoing efforts to attract new business through the Tianfu project and other initiatives [4] - The company is exploring the feasibility of coexisting business models of leasing, joint operations, and self-management starting in 2025 [3]