报告导读： 行业运行并没有太多意外，运行仍然有下行压力，但数据显示出支出压力减少 的确认，预计将在未来延续这一趋势，给宏观提供有利的金融环境。 整体来看， 2026 年预计延续 2025 年的趋势，也即金融风险较小、经济压力仍然存在。 考虑到市场对房地产的关注点更多在金融风险上，因此房地产对 2026 年的影响预计也将提供有利环境，也即不会出现系统性金融风险。 行业数据回落，基数有扰动，整体行业运行仍有下行压力。 投资端，开发投资额单月同比下降 31.4% 、新开工面积单月同比 -27.7% 、销售金额单月同比 -26.1% ，相比于 10 月有涨有跌，但增速仍维持较低水平。在上一期中，我们已经提到了对基数扰动的看法，认为不倾向于用基数来解释，回到行业运行本 身，仍然显示出有下行压力。 待售面积指标下的新趋势，房企压力缓解和地产投资减少，并持续至 2026 年。 待售面积的变化，不外乎两种情况：①由于竣工交付房屋中包含部分未售的 部分，因此，统一交付会带来这部分面积的增长，由于这部分待售面积的增长是没有销售收入的，也就可以作为房企资金压力的一种体现；②部分房屋改为现 房销售，那么待售面积将作为未来销售的前置指 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - Fixed asset investment growth in China has further declined, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.6% for January to November 2025, a drop of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous period [2][3]. - Traditional infrastructure investment has seen an expanded decline, necessitating measures to stabilize investment. Infrastructure investment (including all categories) grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - Real estate investment remains low, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.9% for January to November 2025, indicating a weak recovery trajectory [11]. Summary by Sections Fixed Asset Investment - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate for fixed asset investment is -2.6%, with manufacturing investment showing a slight increase of 1.9% [2][3]. - The decline in traditional infrastructure investment has intensified, with significant drops in various sectors, including transportation and public facilities [4]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) has decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with notable declines in transportation and environmental management sectors [4]. - Regional investment disparities are evident, with the eastern region experiencing a 6.6% decline year-on-year [4]. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment has decreased by 15.9% year-on-year, with construction starts down by 20.5% and completions down by 18.0% [11]. - The report anticipates a slow recovery in real estate investment due to challenges in inventory replenishment and supply chain issues [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that in 2026, industry investment is expected to stabilize, with emerging sectors likely to benefit from national strategic initiatives [15]. - Specific companies are highlighted for potential investment, including Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Chemical, and others in the new infrastructure and overseas markets [15].

Price-Related Summary - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index is at 1,045.84, down 16.48 from last week [3] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $63.38 per barrel, an increase of $0.37 from last week, while WTI crude oil settled at $59.00 per barrel, up $0.31 [3] - Average wholesale prices for vegetables decreased by ¥0.04 per kg, fruits by ¥0.01 per kg, pork by ¥0.15 per kg, beef by ¥0.25 per kg, and lamb by ¥0.40 per kg [3] Industrial-Related Summary - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index is at 3,456.21, down 66.82 from last week [14] - Glass futures closed at ¥987 per ton, down ¥45 per ton, and coking coal futures closed at ¥1,103 per ton, down ¥89 per ton [14] - The blast furnace operating rate is recorded at 82.17%, a decrease of 2.08% from last week, while the operating rate for petroleum asphalt is at 24.80%, down 4.20% [14] Real Estate Investment Summary - The land transaction area in 100 major cities is approximately 13,497,800 square meters, an increase of 7,013,200 square meters from last week [21] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities is about 1,725,600 square meters, up 330,500 square meters from last week [21] - The second-hand housing listing price index is recorded at 148.80, down 0.26, with the decline rate less than the previous week [21] Transportation and Retail Summary - Subway passenger volumes increased significantly, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showing changes of -1.16%, 2.41%, 4.17%, and 1.91% respectively [31] - Box office revenue reached ¥656 million, an increase of ¥444 million from last week [31] - Retail sales of passenger cars totaled 67,312 units, up 21,256 units from last week [31] - The number of domestic flights executed was 86,716, an increase of 822 from last week [31]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent incident involving a high-profile property in Hong Kong, highlighting the implications of such events on real estate values and the background of its owner, Zhang Songqiao, a former real estate tycoon in Chongqing [5][6][21]. Group 1: Incident Overview - A tragic incident occurred at a luxury property on Mount Peak Road in Hong Kong, where a Filipino maid was found dead, raising concerns about the property's market value, estimated at over 700 million HKD [5][6]. - The property has been dubbed Hong Kong's "most expensive haunted house," which could significantly affect its marketability [5]. Group 2: Zhang Songqiao's Background - Zhang Songqiao, once known as the "Chongqing Li Ka-shing," made his fortune through real estate and was a prominent figure in the Hong Kong elite [6][7][16]. - He acquired the Mount Peak Road property for 1.38 billion HKD 21 years ago and has since become less visible in the public eye [6][7]. Group 3: Business Ventures and Financial Status - Zhang's business journey began with trading electronics and evolved into real estate, leading to significant wealth accumulation, with a peak net worth of 125 billion HKD in 2007 [7][9]. - He has been involved in various high-stakes investments, including significant stakes in companies like Evergrande and has managed to avoid substantial losses compared to other investors [11][12]. Group 4: Current Asset Management - Currently, Zhang's main source of income comes from rental properties, with over 90% of revenue derived from rental income across various locations, including London and Hong Kong [22][23]. - Despite maintaining a portfolio of high-value properties, Zhang's companies have faced financial challenges, with cumulative losses of approximately 4.5 billion HKD from 2020 to 2024 [24][30]. Group 5: Wealth Status - Zhang's wealth has remained relatively stable over the years, with a reported net worth of around 18.5 billion HKD in 2025, slightly lower than his peak but still above his initial fortune when he became Chongqing's richest [31].

Summary of Conference Call on Beijing Real Estate Policy Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the real estate market in Beijing, with implications for Shanghai and Shenzhen as well. The focus is on the new policies aimed at revitalizing the real estate sector due to declining transaction volumes and land sales issues [1][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Beijing's New Real Estate Policy**: The policy allows families outside the Fifth Ring Road to purchase an unlimited number of homes, and it relaxes public housing fund policies, increasing loan limits for second homes from 1 million to 1.4 million [3][10]. 2. **Reasons for Policy Implementation**: The primary reasons for the new policy include poor land sales performance and a significant drop in second-hand home transactions, which fell below the critical threshold of 15,000 units in July [4][8]. 3. **Impact on Market Dynamics**: The new policy is expected to stimulate demand from high-net-worth individuals and improve market conditions, shifting the investment logic from preemptive buying to a recovery phase [5][18]. 4. **Investment Recommendations**: The call recommends focusing on "I Love My Home" (a second-hand housing agency) and "New Town Holdings" (commercial real estate), predicting over 50% and potential doubling in stock prices, respectively [6][20]. 5. **Commercial Real Estate Opportunities**: With declining interest rates, commercial real estate is seen as a significant investment opportunity, with companies like New Town Holdings and China Resources Land highlighted as key players [19][21]. 6. **Market Performance Comparison**: In July, Beijing's second-hand home transactions dropped to 12,784 units, while Shanghai maintained a stronger performance with 19,337 units sold [7][11]. 7. **Future Policy Directions**: Future policies may include further relaxations in purchase restrictions, public housing fund policies, and adjustments to land supply to stimulate market activity [13][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Regional Focus**: Areas such as Haidian and Changping near the Fifth Ring Road are expected to benefit significantly from the new policies due to their strong purchasing power [9][12]. - **Long-term Market Outlook**: While short-term effects are anticipated, the long-term outlook suggests a continued divergence in market performance across different regions, with only select areas showing substantial recovery [11][12]. - **Potential for Further Policy Changes**: The call indicates that both Shanghai and Shenzhen are likely to follow suit with their own policy adjustments, albeit with different approaches and timelines [2][15][16][17]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the real estate market in Beijing and its implications for the broader industry.

Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - The closing prices and changes of various interest rate varieties are presented, such as DR001 closing at 1.53% with a 10.6bp increase, and DR007 closing at 1.57% with a 3.36bp increase [3]. - The central bank conducted 3425 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 690 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1000 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1735 billion yuan. Also, it will conduct 14000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on July 15 [3]. - This week, there are 4257 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market. Recently, liquidity has slightly tightened, with the overnight inter - bank pledged repo weighted average rate rising 10.6bp to 1.53% and the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate rising 3.36bp to 1.4957% [3]. Group 2: Stock Index Futures and Stock Market Performance - The closing prices and daily changes of major stock indices and their corresponding futures contracts are provided. For example, the CSI 300 closed at 4019 with a 0.03% increase, and the IF current - month contract closed at 4010 with no change [4]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures contracts have significant changes. For instance, the IF trading volume increased by 55.3% to 124297, and the open interest increased by 1.5% to 267331 [4]. - Yesterday, the total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 16121 billion yuan, an increase of 1533 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed down, with the Internet service sector rising [4]. Group 3: Economic Data and Market Outlook - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 660536 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The supply side remained strong with a 6.8% year - on - year increase in industrial added value in June, while the demand side weakened, with real estate investment from January to June falling to - 11.2% and the consumer growth rate in June dropping to 4.8% [5]. - After the economic data was released, the stock index initially weakened but then showed a "V" - shaped trend. Recently, the stock index has been less sensitive to negative news, and the market trading volume and sentiment have remained strong. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are presented, including the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [6].

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of June 6, 2025, subway passenger volume growth is 1.39% year-on-year, but down 3.67% month-on-month[1] - Retail sales of passenger cars in May reached 1.93 million units, a 13% increase year-on-year and a 10% increase month-on-month[1] - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the number of travelers increased by 26.6% compared to 2019, while travel income grew by 8.6%[1] Domestic Macro - Supply Side - As of early June, the operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 83.54%[1] - The operating rate of rebar production fell to 41.95%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.35 percentage points[2] - The operating rate of pure alkali production increased by 2.19 percentage points to 80.76%[1] Price Performance - As of June 6, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork fell by 0.72% week-on-week, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables rose by 0.52%[1] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.6% and 3.53% respectively during the week[3] - The PPI showed a mixed trend, with copper prices rising by 3.97% while aluminum prices fell by 0.51%[1] Fiscal and Investment - A total of 176 billion yuan in special government bonds were issued this week, bringing the cumulative issuance to 934 billion yuan[2] - The issuance progress of local special bonds (including debt relief) reached 49.4% as of June 7, 2025[2] - The investment in infrastructure is expected to rise as cement shipment rates and asphalt operating rates recover[2] Economic Data - The US economy is showing signs of slow down, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.5 and non-manufacturing PMI at 49.9 for May[3] - Non-farm employment in the US increased by 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.24%[3] - The Eurozone's May CPI growth rate decreased to 1.9%, indicating marginal economic improvement[3]

Core Insights - The Kai Tak Sports Park in Hong Kong, which officially opened in March, will host significant events such as the 2025 Snooker World Grand Prix and the Hong Kong International Rugby Sevens, marking a transformation of the area from an old airport to a new urban center [1][2] - The development of the Kai Tak area, including the sports park, the largest urban park in Hong Kong, and the new residential project "Flower Sea," signifies a new urban energy core that redefines Hong Kong's future lifestyle and injects new momentum into urban development [1][2][4] Group 1: Development Overview - The Kai Tak Sports Park, with an investment exceeding HKD 30 billion, is a centerpiece of the Kai Tak development plan initiated in 2007, which includes various core projects such as parks, hotels, and residential areas [2][4] - The area is designed to be a "city engine" for Hong Kong's future, showcasing a new development philosophy and continuing to lead the city’s upward trajectory [2][4] Group 2: Urban Features - The Victoria Harbour Metropolitan Park Circle, which includes the Kai Tak Sports Park, the largest urban park, and the upcoming "Flower Sea" residential project, creates a unique combination of sports, ecological leisure, and high-end living [4][5] - The "Flower Sea" project, featuring 723 high-end residential units, is positioned as a key element within this urban park circle, offering proximity to cultural, sports, and waterfront resources [5][8] Group 3: Economic Impact - The development is expected to enhance Hong Kong's attractiveness for businesses, with over 500 companies expanding or establishing operations in the region, reflecting a 50% increase compared to the previous year [17] - The area has seen a significant rise in property values, with residential prices in similar high-demand areas increasing from HKD 80,000 per square meter in 2015 to around HKD 200,000 per square meter recently, indicating strong investment potential [19]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy and Investment - Since April, domestic macro policies have accelerated implementation to address external uncertainties, with local governments issuing 10,665 billion yuan in new special bonds, achieving 24.2% of this year's target, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The 2025 government work report sets macro policy goals including a new special bond issuance of 44,000 billion yuan, an increase of 5,000 billion yuan from last year, and a fiscal deficit rate raised to 4%, with a deficit scale increase of 16,000 billion yuan from last year [1] - Major economic indicators show signs of stabilization and recovery, with fixed asset investment reaching 103,174 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and private fixed asset investment growing by 0.4% [1] Group 2: Steel Demand and Supply Dynamics - Current weekly apparent demand for rebar has recovered to 2.738 million tons, showing a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline, supported by increased infrastructure investment and a gradual reduction in real estate investment decline [2] - Steel mills are experiencing improved operating conditions, with short-process electric arc furnace utilization rates rising to 56.3%, an increase of 7.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Rebar weekly production has increased to 2.292 million tons, up by 113,000 tons year-on-year, indicating high production levels during the traditional peak season in May and June, leading to increased supply pressure [2] Group 3: Inventory and Price Outlook - Rebar total inventory has decreased to 7.33 million tons, down by 860,000 tons from the end of March and 2.15 million tons year-on-year, indicating a low inventory level historically [3] - Despite some downward pressure on rebar demand, expectations of reduced crude steel production and relatively low price valuations suggest a potential for a phase of price rebound after a bottoming out [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][33] Core Insights - The report highlights the need for more supportive policies in the real estate sector due to the impact of Trump's "reciprocal" tariff policy, which may lead to short-term challenges for domestic exports. Housing consumption and real estate investment are crucial for stabilizing the economy and growth [3] - There is still room for further relaxation of purchase restrictions in core cities, potential interest rate cuts, and adjustments to housing provident fund rates to stimulate housing demand [3] - The report notes a short-term constraint on new home sales due to insufficient quality supply, with some developers still aiming for growth targets in 2025 despite a 3% year-on-year decline in new home transactions in 50 key cities [3] - The report suggests that the real estate sector presents certain speculative opportunities, with recommendations for specific companies based on their financial health and market positioning [3] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in 50 key cities decreased by 27.2% week-on-week, with a total of 20,000 units sold. The average daily transaction volume for new homes in March showed a 3% year-on-year decline but a 50% increase month-on-month [9][12] - The inventory of unsold properties decreased by 0.9%, with a depletion cycle of 20.7 months, indicating a slight improvement in market conditions [12] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a 0.9% decline in stock prices, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 1.37%. The current price-to-earnings ratio for the real estate sector is 35.46, placing it in the 91.6th percentile over the past five years [23][24] - The issuance of real estate bonds reached 3.72 billion yuan, with a net financing amount showing a slight increase [20]