Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the real estate policy expectations are strengthening, which is likely to restore sentiment in the home furnishing sector [3][6] - In 2025, real estate development investment, construction, new starts, and completion areas all saw year-on-year declines, with total investment around 82,788 billion yuan, down 17.2% [3][21] - The report indicates that the real estate market is showing signs of recovery in first-tier cities, with a narrowing decline in new residential sales prices [4][29] - A recent article in "Qiushi" magazine emphasizes the financial attributes of real estate, indicating a shift in policy logic towards stabilizing financial and asset markets [5][32] Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Overview - In 2025, the total investment in real estate development was approximately 82,788 billion yuan, with residential investment at about 63,514 billion yuan, reflecting declines of 17.2% and 16.3% respectively [3][21] - New housing starts decreased by 20.4% to approximately 58,770 million square meters, while residential new starts fell by 19.8% to about 42,984 million square meters [3][21] - The report notes that the completion area for houses was around 60,348 million square meters, down 18.1% year-on-year [3][21] Market Sentiment and Policy Impact - The report suggests that the strengthening of real estate policies is expected to boost consumer expectations for home improvement and custom home consumption [6][36] - The article from "Qiushi" stresses the need for a focus on repairing residents' balance sheets and emphasizes the importance of demand-side policies [5][32][33] - The report indicates that if policies expand to include housing subsidies and renovation loans, it would directly benefit home furnishing consumption [8][36] Industry Performance - From January 19 to January 23, 2026, the light industry manufacturing index rose by 4.48%, ranking 9th among 31 industry indices [9][38] - The textile and apparel index also increased by 4.48%, ranking 8th [9][38] - The report highlights significant stock performance, with companies like Jiamei Packaging and Pinao showing substantial gains [9][43] Key Data Tracking - In the week of January 11 to January 18, 2026, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 1,293,400 square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 8.5% [10][46] - The report tracks various material prices, noting that TDI and MDI prices were 13,950 yuan/ton and 14,000 yuan/ton respectively, with slight weekly declines [10][13] - Furniture sales in December 2025 totaled 20.73 billion yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year, while building materials and home furnishing sales were 117.96 billion yuan, down 4.4% [10][36]

Group 1: Industry Overview - In August, the national furniture retail sales reached 16.9 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 18.6%, significantly higher than the overall retail sales growth rate [2] - The cumulative growth of furniture retail sales from January to August was 22%, indicating a strong recovery in home consumption driven by policies like "old-for-new" exchanges [2] Group 2: Market Index - The national building materials and home furnishings prosperity index (BHI) for August was 110.06, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.96 points and a year-on-year decline of 8.08 points [3] - The sales revenue of large-scale building materials and home furnishing markets in August was 105.65 billion yuan, with a month-on-month decline of 7.16% and a year-on-year decline of 15.05% [3] - Cumulative sales from January to August were 913.96 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.10% [3] Group 3: Company News - Oppein Home Group has filed a lawsuit against Suning Real Estate for "contract disputes," with speculation that the issues may arise from project cooperation or payment discrepancies [4] - Kuka Group has undergone a name change to Hangzhou Deyejiajun Enterprise Management Co., Ltd., and now focuses on management consulting and sales, holding approximately 10.77% of Kuka Home's shares [5] - Golden Home is advancing its first phase of the production base project in Thailand, reallocating 150.48 million yuan of its fundraising to ensure timely payments for the project [6] - Love Space has officially reopened its flagship store in Beijing after a comprehensive upgrade, introducing nine service commitments to enhance customer satisfaction and transparency [7][8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant divergence in performance among companies as they release their semi-annual earnings forecasts, with some companies showing remarkable growth while others face declines [3][19] - Key drivers for growth include market expansion, product upgrades, operational efficiency improvements, and effective cost control [21][24] Summary by Sections Semi-Annual Earnings Forecasts - Jiangxin Home reported a net profit of 410-460 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.70%-61.23% [21] - Aorijin expects a net profit of 850-960 million yuan for H1 2025, with a growth rate of 55%-75% [21] - Zhongshun Jierou anticipates a net profit of 140-160 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 59.85%-82.68% [24] - Saifutian forecasts a turnaround with a net profit of 2.55-3.80 million yuan, compared to a loss of 12.49 million yuan in the previous year [23] Market Performance - From July 14 to July 18, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, while the ShenZhen Component Index increased by 2.04% [25] - The light industry manufacturing index rose by 0.08%, ranking 21st among 31 sectors, while the textile and apparel index increased by 0.24%, ranking 19th [25] Key Data Tracking - Real estate data shows a significant decline in property transactions, with a 35.98% decrease in the transaction area of commercial housing in major cities [34] - The price of cotton in China is reported at 15,508 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.59% [12] - The report indicates a notable increase in furniture sales, with June 2025 sales reaching 20.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.7% [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][7] Core Views - The company has reported a revenue of 14.30 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.18%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 690 million yuan, down 14.39% year-on-year [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.8 billion yuan (before tax) for every 10 shares, resulting in a total dividend payout of 8.08 billion yuan for the year, achieving a dividend payout ratio of 117% and a dividend yield of approximately 8% [2] - The company is actively responding to short-term revenue pressures by organizing promotional events and exploring new business models, including a full industry chain platform for home improvement and smart home services [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's core business revenue from leasing and services was 12.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.52% year-on-year, accounting for 87.2% of total revenue [3] - The gross profit margin for 2024 decreased by 2.94 percentage points to 67.24%, primarily due to revenue pressure and increased depreciation costs from new projects [5] - The company expects revenues for 2025-2027 to be 14.85 billion yuan, 15.70 billion yuan, and 16.49 billion yuan respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 0.96 yuan, 1.02 yuan, and 1.09 yuan [6][9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leading home goods retailer in Southwest China, with a strong competitive position and a focus on long-term growth driven by urbanization and rising income levels [6][4] - The company is enhancing its operational stability by leveraging its property cost advantages and high penetration in the Chengdu market [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the home goods market, with ongoing efforts to attract new business through the Tianfu project and other initiatives [4] - The company is exploring the feasibility of coexisting business models of leasing, joint operations, and self-management starting in 2025 [3]