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跟隨機構視角:中銀國際董事Niki點評小米管理層護盤與窩輪資金流向
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-13 04:33
小米集團(01810)股價近期在基本面壓力和市場資金博弈下,呈現出典型的橫盤震盪格局。根據截至12月12日的數據,股價收報43.14元,升2.32%,成交 額為25.54億元。 技術分析與關鍵價位 從技術面觀察,小米股價目前處於一個方向未明的階段。股價圍繞短期均線波動,最新價與10天線(41.48元)及30天線(41.59元)大致持平,但低於60天 線(46.63元),顯示長期趨勢仍面臨一定壓力。技術指標總結信號為「中立」,強度為8,多個震盪指標亦呈現中立狀態,反映出市場缺乏明確的短期方 向。不過,部分動量指標如CCI及動量震盪指標給出了買入信號,這或許為反彈提供了一些技術上的支撐。同時,RSI處於50的中性,符合當前的震盪市 況。 關鍵的價格區間為投資者劃定了清晰的短線交易框架。下方,第一支持位位於40元,第二支持位則在38.5元。上方阻力方面,43.7元(阻力1)和45.8元(阻 力2)構成關鍵壓力區域。整體上升概率為53%,與技術指標的中立信號吻合,表明股價短期內更可能在上述支持與阻力構成的區間內(大致在38.5元至43.7 元)繼續整固,以等待新的催化劑出現。 窩輪產品回顧:槓桿效應的雙刃劍 近期小米 ...
小米走勢印證中銀觀點:股價自管理層增持後企穩反彈
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-04 20:27
科網股走勢不一,截止11點07分,其中騰訊報611元,成交額37.41億元;美團報98.2元,成交額18.55億元;網易報218.4元,成交額2.91億元;嗶哩嗶哩報 203.2元,成交額3.29元。 TU.UIJ TOL.UU70 U.UI 耳X ULU ILW 成交量 1622.00萬股 成交額 56.19萬 收回價 38.5( 小米集團-W 41.360 +1.140 +2.83% | 日K 5日 周K 月K |1D 季K 4小時▼ MA MA5:0.031 MA20: MA30: MA120: MA250: ▲ 0.041 BOLL(20,2) MID: UPPER: LOWER: - 0.039 0.032 0.027 0.024 0.022 2025/11 2025/12 在科網股中,小米集團(01810)的股價在經歷一段調整後,目前於40.22元附近尋求新的平衡。從移動平均線觀察,當前股價略高於10天線(39.82元),但仍明 顯低於30天線(42.3元)及60天線(47.95元),顯示中長期的下行壓力並未完全解除。不過,動量震盪指標發出「超跌,可能築底,買入」的信號,與整體偏弱 的格局形成微妙 ...
小米支持位36.9元背水一戰!中銀:資金流入搏反彈
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-21 12:17
Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's stock price has recently experienced a significant decline, dropping nearly 3.66% to 37.4 HKD, breaching all major moving averages, which may indicate a potential technical rebound due to oversold conditions [1] Technical Analysis - The RSI indicator has fallen into the oversold zone at 22, historically suggesting a short-term rebound may be imminent [1] - Key support for Xiaomi's stock is at 36.9 HKD; if this level is breached, the next support is at 34.6 HKD [1] - The first resistance level is at 42.5 HKD, with a potential challenge at 47.7 HKD if this is surpassed [1] - The Bollinger Bands indicate that the stock price is nearing the lower band, suggesting limited downside potential [1] - Historical data suggests a 58% probability of a short-term price increase, with a 5-day volatility of 15.5% [1] Derivative Products Analysis - For investors looking to participate in a potential rebound through call options, the Societe Generale call option (code 27803) is noteworthy, with a strike price of 32 HKD and a leverage of 3.9 times, featuring the lowest implied volatility among similar products [4] - In the put options category, the Bank of China put option (code 22168) has a strike price of 32.18 HKD and offers 4 times leverage, characterized by the lowest premium and implied volatility, making it cost-effective for hedging against downside risk [4] - Another put option, Guojun's (code 22433), has a strike price of 32.16 HKD and 3.9 times leverage, providing the highest leverage among similar products, suitable for investors seeking higher capital efficiency [4] Market Sentiment - Recent market activity shows significant inflows into Xiaomi's call options, with approximately 28 million HKD invested over the past five trading days, ranking third in the market behind Alibaba and Tencent [15] - Investors are particularly focused on Xiaomi's upcoming earnings report, with expectations that positive results could lead to a rebound in stock price [15][16]
大行維持買入評級 小米現價值博空間?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-23 11:16
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of technology stocks in the Hong Kong market, particularly focusing on Xiaomi Group (01810), which is facing significant technical challenges and support levels [1]. Company Performance - Xiaomi's stock price was reported at 52.52 HKD, up 1.56%, but is currently below key moving averages, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1]. - Major investment banks have provided mixed outlooks: - CMB International noted strong performance in Xiaomi's automotive segment and adjusted the target price from 67 HKD to 60 HKD while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]. - Cathay Securities highlighted substantial overperformance in automotive profitability and adjusted the target price to 77.5 HKD, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1]. Technical Analysis - Support levels are identified at 49.8 HKD and 48.1 HKD, which are critical for bulls to defend [3]. - Resistance levels are seen at 53.9 HKD and 57.1 HKD, with the current price nearing key support, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound [3]. - The RSI indicator is at 39, indicating heavy selling pressure but nearing oversold territory, while volatility indicators suggest a severe oversold condition that may lead to a bottoming out [3]. Derivative Instruments - Investors anticipating a technical rebound may consider call options with a strike price of 60 HKD, offering a leverage of 3.8 times [6]. - For bearish investors, put options with a strike price of 46.45 HKD are available, providing a leverage of 3.1 times [6]. - Bullish investors can look at UBS bull certificates with a redemption price of 49 HKD, offering a leverage of 16 times [8]. Market Sentiment - The article invites investors to consider the current technical position of Xiaomi and whether the support zone of 48.1-49.8 HKD can hold, or if further declines are expected [11].
小米(01810)短線技術分析:超賣反彈行情啟動?關鍵位與衍生品策略全解析
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-13 11:10
Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's stock price is currently experiencing volatility, with technical indicators suggesting a potential short-term rebound despite being in an oversold condition [1][12]. Technical Analysis - As of August 13, 2025, Xiaomi's stock price is at 52.5 HKD, showing a 1.55% increase. The RSI indicator is at 31, indicating an oversold condition. The stock price has fallen below the 10-day moving average (52.98 HKD) and the 30-day moving average (56.02 HKD), but is supported near the 60-day moving average (54.97 HKD) [1]. - The William and stochastic indicators are signaling a buy, contrasting with the MACD sell signal, suggesting a possible technical rebound in the short term [1]. - Key support levels are identified at 49.7 HKD and 46.4 HKD, while resistance levels are at 54.5 HKD and 57 HKD. A significant market volatility is indicated by an 8% fluctuation over five days [3]. Market Sentiment - Recent trading activity shows a capital inflow of 35 million HKD into Xiaomi's call options over the past five trading days, indicating investor interest in capitalizing on potential rebounds [1]. - The stock has seen fluctuations, with a recent low of 50.1 HKD and a previous high of over 60 HKD, reflecting investor concerns amid competitive pressures in the automotive sector [1]. Derivative Products Performance - Recent recommendations for derivative products have shown strong performance, with certain bull certificates experiencing gains of 30% and 24% in a short period, demonstrating the effectiveness of leveraged products in a rebound scenario [5]. - New recommendations for call options include HSBC's call option with a strike price of 60.65 HKD and a leverage of 7.2 times, suitable for speculative rebound plays [8]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to monitor the support level at 49.7 HKD closely. If this level holds, there may be opportunities for gradual accumulation [3]. - For bearish investors, options with lower strike prices and higher leverage are available, providing hedging opportunities against potential declines [8][10].