Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock price is currently experiencing a sideways fluctuation pattern due to fundamental pressures and market capital dynamics, closing at HKD 43.14 with a 2.32% increase and a trading volume of HKD 2.554 billion as of December 12 [1] Technical Analysis and Key Price Levels - The stock is in an unclear directional phase, oscillating around short-term moving averages, with the latest price near the 10-day (HKD 41.48) and 30-day (HKD 41.59) moving averages but below the 60-day moving average (HKD 46.63), indicating long-term pressure [2] - Key support levels are at HKD 40 and HKD 38.5, while resistance levels are at HKD 43.7 and HKD 45.8, suggesting a trading range of approximately HKD 38.5 to HKD 43.7 in the short term [2] - The overall probability of an upward movement is estimated at 53%, aligning with the neutral technical indicators [2] Market News and Investor Sentiment - Positive news includes a 218.1% year-on-year increase in Xiaomi's automotive sales for the first 11 months of 2025, achieving quarterly profitability for the first time in Q3 [5] - However, the company faces challenges such as rising global storage chip prices due to AI demand, increasing hardware costs, and significant internal adjustments, including personnel changes and the planned closure of over 1,000 underperforming stores, incurring a one-time cost of approximately HKD 27.26 million [5] - Investor sentiment is mixed, with bullish investors optimistic about the automotive business and management's support, while bearish investors are concerned about rising costs and the impact of business adjustments [7] Derivative Market Performance - Recent performance in the derivative market illustrates the leverage effect, with significant gains in related products when the underlying stock price increased [8][10] - For bullish investors, options with a strike price of HKD 50 and various leveraged products are recommended, while bearish investors may consider put options with a strike price around HKD 41 [14] Time Value Decay Insights - Time value decay is a critical factor in options trading, with the value of options decreasing as the expiration date approaches, particularly for out-of-the-money options [17] - Investors are advised to avoid holding short-term options and to consider products with longer expiration dates to mitigate the effects of time decay [18]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's stock price is currently experiencing volatility, with technical indicators suggesting a potential short-term rebound despite being in an oversold condition [1][12]. Technical Analysis - As of August 13, 2025, Xiaomi's stock price is at 52.5 HKD, showing a 1.55% increase. The RSI indicator is at 31, indicating an oversold condition. The stock price has fallen below the 10-day moving average (52.98 HKD) and the 30-day moving average (56.02 HKD), but is supported near the 60-day moving average (54.97 HKD) [1]. - The William and stochastic indicators are signaling a buy, contrasting with the MACD sell signal, suggesting a possible technical rebound in the short term [1]. - Key support levels are identified at 49.7 HKD and 46.4 HKD, while resistance levels are at 54.5 HKD and 57 HKD. A significant market volatility is indicated by an 8% fluctuation over five days [3]. Market Sentiment - Recent trading activity shows a capital inflow of 35 million HKD into Xiaomi's call options over the past five trading days, indicating investor interest in capitalizing on potential rebounds [1]. - The stock has seen fluctuations, with a recent low of 50.1 HKD and a previous high of over 60 HKD, reflecting investor concerns amid competitive pressures in the automotive sector [1]. Derivative Products Performance - Recent recommendations for derivative products have shown strong performance, with certain bull certificates experiencing gains of 30% and 24% in a short period, demonstrating the effectiveness of leveraged products in a rebound scenario [5]. - New recommendations for call options include HSBC's call option with a strike price of 60.65 HKD and a leverage of 7.2 times, suitable for speculative rebound plays [8]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to monitor the support level at 49.7 HKD closely. If this level holds, there may be opportunities for gradual accumulation [3]. - For bearish investors, options with lower strike prices and higher leverage are available, providing hedging opportunities against potential declines [8][10].

Group 1: Company Insights - The report recommends buying Leap Motor (9863) with a target price of 63.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 14.5% from the current price of 57.70 HKD [7][9] - Leap Motor's Q1 2025 performance met market expectations, with revenue increasing 1.87 times year-on-year to 10.02 billion RMB, and a significant reduction in losses to 130 million RMB, benefiting from economies of scale and strategic partnerships [9] - The company has set a sales target of 550,000 units for FY25E, representing an annual growth of 87%, with 173,000 units delivered in the first five months of 2025, which is 30% of the annual target [9] Group 2: Industry Trends - The Chinese automotive industry is expected to see a reduction in price wars as the China Automobile Association and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology support fair competition and healthy development [9] - The report highlights the strategic partnerships formed by Leap Motor with Stellantis and China FAW Group, which are seen as catalysts for future growth and stock price appreciation [9] - The report notes that the market anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49% for Leap Motor's revenue from FY24 to FY27, with the current price corresponding to a forecasted price-to-sales ratio of 1.2x for FY25E, slightly below its historical average [9]