2026/1/7 | 麥嘉嘉 | 研究部主管 | avis.mak@sinopac.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 張雪婷 | 研究部經理 | samantha.cheung@sinopac.com | | 林仲全 | 研究部資深專員 | kobe.lin@sinopac.com | 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 • 道指周二盤中破頂｜道指及標指同創歷史新高，反映市場對經濟「軟著 陸＋減息」的憧憬仍在延續，情緒偏樂觀 • 倫敦期銅｜倫敦期銅再破頂，一度升3.1% ，收報13236.33仍漲1.47% • 人工智能｜人工智能(AI)相關的記憶晶片股受捧，美光科技(Micron Technology)股價創即市新高，一度抽高7.8% • 風險資產｜美股及大宗商品同時強勢，短線仍偏向風險資產有利 • 節奏上｜要看聯儲局減息時間及就業數據的不確定性，採用「順勢但 分段、偏股但防禦」的策略 • 股市｜股市：AI＋周期＋防禦三線配置 • 實際做法｜可透過港股或美股的AI相關ETF、半導體ETF、資源股ETF及 貴金屬ETF，代替個股集中風險，配合少量領先龍頭個股作衛星持倉 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 1 ...

每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2026 年 1 月 7 日星期三 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指短期料於 26,000 點上落：聯儲局 12 月一如預期減息 0.25 厘，市場 預期 2026 年主席換屆後貨幣政策立場轉鴿，預測減息 2 次，高於聯儲局 預測，惟仍需觀望經濟數據及其餘委員取態。美國延續減息，內地放寬貨 幣政策的空間加大。12 月中央經濟工作會議談及國內供強需弱矛盾突出， 並要推動投資止跌回穩。相比政治局會議，在風險評估及經濟形勢的判斷 上，輕微增強穩增長訊號。重點領域如擴大內需，穩住樓市股市，以及反 內卷，政策思路未有明顯轉變。後續需跟進年初地方兩會及 3 月全國兩 會。中美關稅戰停戰，若然經濟形勢未有急劇轉變，內地短期政策加碼誘 因不大。預計政策重點提效，並具針對性。基於短期內港股企業盈利難有 明顯改善，以及聯儲局減息路徑未明，恒指短期料於 26,000 點上落。 短期看好板塊 中國12月外匯儲備；歐元區12月核心CPI；美國ADP12月就業變動； 宏觀焦點 中國人民銀行：靈活高效運用降準降息，着力擴內需穩預期； 據報中國監管調研部分理財公司，擬為打通中長期資金入市堵 ...

智通財經APP訊，江淮汽車(600418.SH)發佈公告，公司於近日收到中國證券監督管理委員會出具的 《關於同意安徽江淮汽車集團股份有限公司向特定對象發行股票註冊的批覆》(證監許可〔2025〕3022 號)，同意公司向特定對象發行股票的註冊申請。 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to fluctuate around 26,000 points due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a cautious outlook on corporate earnings in Hong Kong [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% interest rate cut, marking the third consecutive reduction, with projections for one more cut in 2026 and 2027 [3][5] - The Chinese service sector's PMI dropped to 52 in December, indicating the weakest expansion rate in six months, while the composite PMI slightly increased to 51.3 [7] Company News - Alibaba (9988) is applying visual AI technology in the restaurant sector to compete with Meituan (3690) for market share [9] - Sunny Optical (2382) is considering a spin-off of its automotive optical business for a separate listing in Hong Kong [9] - China National Airlines (0753) reduced its stake in Cathay Pacific (0293) by over 6%, realizing approximately 1.3 billion HKD [3] Sector Focus - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is promoting new economic growth points in quantum technology, hydrogen energy, and brain-computer interfaces [2][7] - The biopharmaceutical sector in China saw a record high in new drug licensing transactions last year, indicating sustained demand [6] - The insurance sector is benefiting from strong A-share performance, leading to improved investment returns [6] IPO Market Outlook - PwC forecasts that Hong Kong will see around 150 new IPOs in 2026, raising between 320 billion to 350 billion HKD, potentially ranking among the top three globally [7] Real Estate Market - In December 2025, Hong Kong recorded 8,999 property sale contracts, a 26.4% increase month-on-month, with a total value of 65 billion HKD [8] - The Centaline Property Index reached a 19-month high, reflecting ongoing positive sentiment in the real estate market [8]

正股的強勢表現，早已在窩輪市場引發強烈反應！我們複盤近期數據可見，早在12月24日，隨著吉利汽車利好信號初現，關聯窩輪已率先啟動，其中摩通牛 證（57284）在其後2日內升幅高達61%，瑞銀牛證（57998）更實現69%的暴漲，而同期正股2日升幅僅為6.50%，窩輪的槓桿效應可謂極致凸顯。這一現象 背後的邏輯其實不復雜：正股受利好推動上漲時，對應的牛證（認購相關窩輪）會同步受益，且在市場情緒助推下，窩輪的漲幅往往會數倍於正股，尤其是 低溢價、高實際槓桿的標的，更容易獲得資金青睞。 結合當前市況，給出兩類操作建議：對於已經持有吉利汽車相關牛證的牛友，建議設置止盈位保護獲利，避免因正股波動導致收益回吐；對於尚未入場的投 資者，不建議追高已大幅上漲的標的，低溢價標的風險更低、更穩陣。 12月30日，吉利汽車（00175）表現強勢，全日收報18.02元，單日升幅2.97%，成交額達12.28億元，是板塊中升幅較大的個股。雖技術指標總結信號為「中 立」，但短期動力已明顯轉強，5日振幅達6.9%，RSI指標57處於合理區間，多個動量指標給出「買入」信號，反映市場買盤興趣回升。 從板塊技術面來看，12月30日汽車股普遍上行 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is expected to find short-term support around the 25,000 point level, following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 0.25% in December, with market expectations for two additional rate cuts in 2026 after the leadership change [2][5] - Despite the Fed's rate cuts and increased monetary policy space in mainland China, the economic situation remains stable, and there is limited incentive for further policy easing in the short term [2] - The focus is on the Central Economic Work Conference's deployment, with the 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizing expanding domestic demand and promoting technological self-reliance [3] Company News - Sanhua Intelligent Control (2050) forecasts a net profit growth of 25%-50% for the year, driven by its leadership in the refrigeration and air conditioning parts industry and strong demand in the automotive parts sector [4][12] - Cathay Pacific (0293) reported a 26% increase in passenger numbers in November, with expectations for annual performance to surpass last year [4][12] - Vanke (2202) has extended the grace period for its domestic bond, with a principal amount of 2 billion yuan, although the proposal for a one-year extension was not approved [4][12] - Geely Automobile (0175) has completed the privatization of Zeekr, which will now operate as a wholly-owned subsidiary [4][12] Industry Insights - The telecommunications industry in mainland China reported a cumulative revenue of 1.61 trillion yuan in the first eleven months, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [10] - The Hong Kong stock market led global IPO financing in 2025, with a total of 274.6 billion HKD raised, marking a significant increase from the previous year [10] - The insurance regulatory authority in Hong Kong is proposing new regulations to guide insurance capital towards cryptocurrencies and infrastructure assets [10][11] - The automotive sector saw the top ten SUV manufacturers sell 9.583 million units from January to November, accounting for 65.9% of total SUV sales [10]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant decline in the US manufacturing index for December, which turned negative at -3.9, falling short of the expected 10, indicating a contraction in activity [9] - Bitcoin has dropped below $86,000, reaching a low of $85,380, marking a decline of 5.1% [9] - The report suggests an asset allocation strategy focusing on equities as the main axis, with bonds as stabilizers, gold for risk mitigation, and alternative assets to enhance risk-adjusted returns, aiming to build a cross-cycle portfolio [9] Group 2 - The report notes that major Wall Street firms are optimistic about the US stock market outlook, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by as much as 221 points to a high of 48,679 points, although tech stocks showed weakness [11] - The report mentions that the New York Fed President Williams indicated a shift in monetary policy stance to neutral after recent rate cuts, which positions the Fed favorably to address future challenges [11] - The report discusses the economic data from mainland China for November, which fell short of expectations, with retail sales growth at only 1.3%, the lowest in nearly three years, and fixed asset investment down by 2.6% year-to-date [13] Group 3 - The report highlights the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 347 points (1.3%) at 25,628 points, indicating a lack of catalysts for short-term market movement [13] - The report notes that the luxury car brand Hongqi in China has seen a sales increase of 17.4% year-on-year, reaching approximately 412,000 units last year, reflecting a successful turnaround [13] - The report mentions HSBC's proposal to privatize Hang Seng Bank, with a court meeting and shareholder meeting scheduled for January 8, 2026, to vote on the plan [13] Group 4 - The report provides an overview of key earnings announcements, including Lennar Corporation, which is expected to report Q4 2025 results [18] - The report highlights General Electric's strong Q3 2025 performance, with adjusted revenue of approximately $11.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 26% [23] - Bristol-Myers Squibb Co is noted for raising its full-year revenue guidance to approximately $47.5 billion to $48 billion, reflecting confidence in core products and new drug launches [25]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,468.78, up by 233.37 points or 0.92% [16] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 1.03% to 5,457.95 [16] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 228.29 points or 0.47% to 47,885.97 [16] - The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 418.14 points or 1.81% to 22,693.32 [16] Key Company Insights - Jiangxi Copper Company reported a revenue of approximately 396 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a slight increase of about 1% year-on-year, with net profit reaching around 6 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of over 20% [21] - Trip.com Group's net operating income for Q3 2025 was approximately 18.3 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of about 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 24% [21] - China National Airlines saw a year-on-year growth of about 10.1% in passenger turnover for November 2025, indicating strong demand resilience [21] Industry Developments - Oracle plans to build a data center in Michigan with a power demand of 1 million kilowatts, primarily to serve OpenAI, but negotiations for a $10 billion investment from Blue Owl Capital have stalled [12][13] - Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) reported a strong recovery in its lithium business, achieving record lithium sales in Q3 2025, with global lithium demand expected to grow by about 25% year-on-year [23] - Lumentum Holdings Inc. announced Q1 2026 revenue of $534 million, a year-on-year increase of 58%, reflecting strong operational momentum [24]

為方便投資者可隨時閱讀我們的報告，我們已將相關報告上載 於公司網站，投資者可透過以下鏈接參閱： https://www.ebshkfg.com/tc/research-wealthManagement 2025 年 12 月 16 日 報告重點: 上 周 回 顧 美股走勢 美股三大指數個別發展 港股走勢 恒指上周輕微失守 26,000 點關口 商品市場表現 紐約期油按周下挫 | | | 一周市場摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票指數 | 收市 | 升跌 | % | | 恒生指數 | 25,976.79 | -108.29 | -0.42% | | 金融指數 | 47,941.71 | 296.24 | 0.62% | | 公用事業指數 | 37,900.00 | -49.77 | -0.13% | | 地產指數 | 18,141.21 | -284.01 | -1.54% | | 工商指數 | 14,326.23 | -131.64 | -0.91% | | 國企指數 | 9,079.35 | -118.95 | -1.29% | | 紅籌指數 | 4,150.40 | ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to find short-term support around the 25,000 point level, with the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 0.25% leading to market expectations of two additional rate cuts in 2026, which is higher than the Fed's own forecast [2][4] - Despite the Fed's rate cuts and increased monetary policy space in mainland China, the economic situation remains stable with no significant changes anticipated in the short term [2][4] - The focus of policy is expected to be on efficiency and targeted measures, particularly in light of the 14th Five-Year Plan's emphasis on expanding domestic demand and promoting technological self-reliance [2][4] Sector Focus - The macroeconomic focus includes Xi Jinping's article emphasizing the strategic importance of expanding domestic demand, with a notable decline in commodity housing sales in mainland China [3][9] - The real estate sector has seen a significant drop in sales, with a reported 11% decrease in commodity housing sales in the first 11 months of the year [9] - Fitch Ratings predicts that the Chinese real estate sector will continue to contract in 2026, with new residential sales expected to decline by 7% to 8% [9] Corporate News - Vanke (2202) is seeking to extend the grace period and postpone principal repayment, proposing more favorable terms to creditors [10] - Meituan (3690) has decided to suspend its group purchasing business to focus on exploring new retail formats [10] - Guo Xia Technology (2655) has seen a significant increase of over 80% in its dark market trading ahead of its listing [10] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent rate cut has brought the federal funds target rate down to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut this year [4] - The Fed has adjusted its GDP forecast for 2026 upwards by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3%, while lowering the inflation forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4% [4] - China's industrial production and retail sales data for November fell short of expectations, indicating ongoing economic challenges [9] Investment Opportunities - The AI sector is highlighted as a growth area, with projections indicating that the core AI industry in mainland China could exceed 1.2 trillion yuan by 2025, driven by significant growth in application cases [9] - The biopharmaceutical sector is also poised for growth due to rising flu cases and favorable financing conditions for global biotech investments [7][9]