02 分析判断 ► 2025上半年销量表现亮眼 自主+出口驱动增长 经营质量提升 受益于自主品牌创新和出口韧性，2025年6月上汽集团批发销量同比+21.6%；上半年批发同比+12.4%，终端交付量220.7万辆，高于批发销量 205.3万辆，稳步去库后当前库存水平较低。结构端，新能源方面，2025上半年累计销售64.6万辆，同比+40.2%，实现大幅增长；自主品牌方 面，销量占比提升至 63.5%，同比+4.6pct，结构优化显著。出口方面，2025上半年，上汽集团海外销量同比+1.3%，在欧盟反补贴等不利影响 下，上汽MG积极克服，在欧洲实现终端交付超15万台，促进出海销量实现稳定增长。 ► 上汽牵手华为成立"尚界"新车将于三季度上市 上汽集团与华为深度合作的智能汽车品牌"尚界"于车展正式亮相，双方采用"智选车模式"，首款SUV车型定位中高端主流市场（售价15 万—25万元），搭载华为ADS3.0无图智驾、鸿蒙OS4.0座舱等黑科技，目前已进入量产准备阶段，将在2025年9月底上市。我们认为， 首款车型定位15-25万元区间，标志着华为从高端市场（问界M9）、中高端市场（智界R7）向大众市场渗透，完善"全 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company has shown impressive sales performance in the first half of 2025, driven by domestic and export growth, with a total wholesale sales of 2.053 million vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.4% [1]. - The company is benefiting from state-owned enterprise reforms, which are expected to lead to a bottom reversal in performance, with projected revenues of 687.76 billion, 722.06 billion, and 776.21 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. - The partnership with Huawei to launch the new smart car brand "Shangjie" is anticipated to enhance sales, with the first SUV model set to be priced between 150,000 and 250,000 yuan [2]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In June 2024, the company sold 365,000 vehicles, with a total of 2.053 million vehicles sold in the first half of 2025, marking a 12.4% increase year-on-year. Notably, the sales of SAIC's new energy vehicles reached 646,000 units, up 40.2% year-on-year [1]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 687.76 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits expected to reach 12.27 billion yuan, translating to an EPS of 1.06 yuan. The PE ratios are projected at 15, 13, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. Strategic Developments - The management restructuring aligns with state-owned enterprise reforms, focusing on domestic market and new energy vehicle development. The new leadership emphasizes resource integration and collaboration to accelerate the company's transformation [2].