Core Insights - The total industrial feed production in China is projected to reach 34,225.3 million tons by 2025, with an annual growth rate of 8.6% [1] - The increase in domestic livestock and poultry production capacity is expected to drive a more than 8% year-on-year increase in compound feed demand, providing strong support for corn prices [1] - Due to reduced profits and potential losses in livestock farming, it is anticipated that the production capacity of pigs and the inventory of laying hens may decline in 2026, leading to total feed demand in 2026 being lower than in 2025 but higher than in 2024, maintaining a relatively high level [1] - The usage of corn in feed is expected to slightly decrease year-on-year, which may weaken its supporting role for corn prices [1]

Core Insights - The article reports on the national feed production situation in August 2025, highlighting a growth in industrial feed production and changes in feed prices [1] Feed Production Overview - In August 2025, the total industrial feed production reached 29.36 million tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 3.7% and a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1] - The production of compound feed, concentrated feed, and additive premix feed saw year-on-year growth rates of 3.4%, 8.3%, and 7.9% respectively [1] Price Trends - The ex-factory prices of feed products showed a downward trend year-on-year, with compound feed and concentrated feed prices mainly increasing month-on-month, while the prices of additive premix feed experienced a slight decline [1] - Specific prices for concentrated feed in August 2025 were as follows: - Fattening pigs: 4.95 yuan/kg - Peak egg-laying hens: 3.58 yuan/kg - Broilers: 4.13 yuan/kg - 4% large pigs: 4.60 yuan/kg - 5% peak egg-laying hens: 4.50 yuan/kg - 5% broilers: 5.10 yuan/kg [3] - Month-on-month price changes for concentrated feed varied, with some categories showing slight increases while others experienced minor declines [3] Ingredient Usage - In the compound feed produced by feed enterprises, corn accounted for 32.9% of the total usage, while soybean meal made up 14.3% of both compound and concentrated feeds [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [47] Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a rise of 6.18% from August 15 to August 28, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 0.78 percentage points [13][14] - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns, with only the fishery sector showing a negative return of -0.26%. The sub-sectors of agricultural product processing, breeding, animal health, feed, and planting rose by 8.25%, 8.23%, 4.58%, 3.28%, and 1.44% respectively [14][15] - Approximately 72% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the same period [15] Industry Data Summary - **Pig Farming**: - Average price of external three-way cross pigs decreased from 13.82 CNY/kg to 13.63 CNY/kg between August 15 and August 28, 2025 [25] - As of the end of July 2025, the breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million heads, a slight decrease of 0.02% [25] - The profit for self-bred pigs was 32.24 CNY/head, showing a slight decline, while the profit for purchased piglets was -148.41 CNY/head, which improved slightly [30] - **Poultry Farming**: - The average price of broiler chicks was 3.61 CNY/chick, showing a slight increase, while the average price of layer chicks was 3.0 CNY/chick, which decreased slightly [32] - The average price of white feather broilers remained stable at 7.33 CNY/kg, with a profit of 1.37 CNY/chick, which slightly declined [35] - **Feed Production**: - National feed production in July 2025 was 28.31 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.3% and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [39] Company Insights - Key companies to focus on include: - Muyuan Foods (002714): Leading domestic pig farming company with cost, scale, and integration advantages [48] - Haida Group (002311): Leading domestic feed company expected to maintain steady market share growth [48] - Zhongchong Pet (002891): Leading domestic pet food company with expected rapid growth in domestic business and recovery in export business [48] - Reap Bio (300119): Leading company in the domestic animal health industry with a continuously enriched product matrix for pet health [48]