农业行业 行业研究|行业周报 10 月生猪供给压力落地，产能去化加速 ——东方证券农林牧渔行业周报（20251124-20251130） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）看好生猪养殖板块，近期政策与市场合力推动生猪养殖行业产能去化， 助力未来板块业绩长期提升，相关标的：牧原股份(002714，未评级)、温氏股份 (300498，买入)、神农集团(605296，未评级) 等。（2）后周期板块，生猪存栏量回升提 振饲料、动保需求，若本轮生猪去产能顺畅，产业链利润有望逐步向下游传导，驱动动 保板块上行，相关标的：海大集团(002311，未评级)、瑞普生物(300119，未评级)等。 （3）种植链，当前粮价上行趋势已确立，种植&种业基本面向好，大种植投资机会凸 显，相关标的：苏垦农发(601952，未评级)、北大荒(600598，未评级)、海南橡胶 (601118，未评级)、隆平高科(000998，未评级)等。（4）宠物板块，宠食行业正处于增 量、提价逻辑持续落地的阶段，海外市场增量不断，国产品牌认可度持续提升，龙头企 业成长持续兑现，相关标的：乖宝宠物(301498，未评级)、中宠股份(002891， ...

行 家用电器 2025 年 11 月 29 日 业 研 究 家用电器 六部委印发增强消费品供需适配文件，多领域有 望实现供给结构升级——25W47 周观点 投资要点： 六部委印发增强消费品供需适配文件，多领域有望实现供给结构升级 行 业 定 期 报 告 六部委印发增强消费品供需适配文件，多领域有望实现供给结构 升级。本周，工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、商务部、文化和旅 游部、中国人民银行和市场监管总局六部门印发《关于增强消费品供 需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》的通知。总体要求到 2027 年， 消费品供给结构明显优化，形成 3 个万亿级消费领域和 10 个千亿级 消费热点。 加快新技术新模式创新：在技术和模式创新方面，文件重点规划 了新的赛道和新的模式，包括新能源汽车，智能家电家居，柔性生产 定制化服务等，同时文件重点强调了人工智能在消费品全行业的重要 作用，鼓励了消费供给在人工智能方面的升级。 扩大特色和新型产品供给：在特色产品方面，文件主要提到了跟 绿色低碳，农村消费，冰雪户外运动，健康食品，传统文化类产品以 及新消费领域的供给升级。 精准匹配不同人群需求：在针对特任人群的需求层面，文件也进 一步细 ...

11月28日，源飞宠物涨5%，截至发稿，报27.09元/股，成交1.50亿元，换手率5.41%，总市值51.71亿 元。源飞宠物股价已经连续4天上涨，区间累计涨幅6.66%。 资料显示，温州源飞宠物玩具制品股份有限公司位于浙江省平阳县水头镇标准园区宠乐路1号，成立日 期2004年9月27日，上市日期2022年8月18日，公司主营业务涉及宠物用品和宠物零食的研发、生产和销 售。主营业务收入构成为：宠物零食52.09%，宠物牵引用具24.77%，宠物主粮9.79%，其他7.72%，宠 物玩具5.64%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 从基金十大重仓股角度 责任编辑：小浪快报 数据显示，同泰基金旗下1只基金重仓源飞宠物。同泰慧择混合A（008050）三季度持有股数6.15万股， 占基金净值比例为8.32%，位居第五大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约7.93万元。连续4天上涨期间 浮盈赚取9.9万元。 同泰慧择混合A（008050）成立日期2019年11月20日 ...

发掘创新力 量！"媒体+"首 届大湾区宠物行 业年度盛典奖项 征集启动_南方 +_南方plus 型，带动万 亿"它经济"加速 驶向精细化、智 能化未来。 挖掘宠物行业标 杆力量 首届大湾区宠物行业年度盛典奖项征集启动仪式 "宠物经济已然 成为消费市场的 新增长极！" 11月27日，"媒 体+"首届大湾区 宠物行业年度盛 典奖项征集启动 仪式（下称"宠 物盛典奖项征集 活动"）在广东 省乡村振兴文化 服务产业园举 行。高校专家、 行业协会代表、 企业掌舵人及投 融资机构代表齐 聚一堂，共同见 证大湾区宠物产 业高质量发展的 重要节点， 以"媒体+"为纽 带，开启行业标 杆评选新篇章， 发掘行业创新力 量，助力产业 从"由量向质"转 大湾区抢占"它 经济"创新前沿 作为中国宠物产 业高质量发展的 核心引擎，大湾 区凭借8000万高 消费人口、 23.5%的养宠家 庭渗透率、超 20%的年增速， 以及集中全国 44%宠物相关企 业的产业优势， 成为"它经济"创 新实践的前沿阵 地。 启动仪式上，南 方报业传媒集团 编委，南方农村 报社党委书记、 主编严亮表 示："宠物经济 已从单纯的商业 赛道升级为解读 现代生活方 ...

Group 1: Key Insights on Light Industry and Textile Apparel - The潮玩 (trendy toys) industry has a promising outlook, with a projected CAGR of 23.2% from 2019 to 2024, expecting to reach 213.3 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the Z generation's pursuit of personalization and cultural value [2] - The pet industry is expected to grow to 404.2 billion yuan by 2027, supported by factors such as family size reduction and the aging population, with the pet food sector projected to reach 158.5 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The metal packaging sector is experiencing revenue and profit improvements, with a shift towards a "value war" and increased overseas business development, enhancing long-term profitability [2] - The textile manufacturing sector is seeing a gradual recovery in orders as tariff risks diminish, with Q1/Q2/Q3 revenue changes of +1.44%, -0.75%, and -1.03% respectively [3] - The domestic clothing market is showing weak performance, but policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to boost the sports apparel market, projected to reach 408.9 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - Investment strategies highlight the ongoing consumer focus on emotional value, benefiting industries like trendy toys and pets, while the textile sector is poised for recovery due to stable tariff risks and supportive policies [3] Group 2: Key Insights on Machinery Equipment - In October, China's engineering machinery import and export trade reached 4.844 billion USD, a slight increase of 0.07% year-on-year, with an average operating rate of 45.56% for the industry [6] - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with excavator and loader sales maintaining growth, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects and a favorable domestic investment strategy [6] - The industry maintains a "positive" rating, with specific companies like 中联重科 (Zoomlion) and 恒立液压 (Hengli Hydraulic) recommended for "increase" ratings [7] Group 3: Key Insights on Metal Industry - Gold prices are expected to rise due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a projected demand increase from global ETFs and stable industrial demand [8] - Copper supply is anticipated to turn short in 2026, driven by increasing demand from renewable energy sectors and technological advancements, which may support copper prices [8] - Tungsten's strategic value is highlighted by strong demand in high-tech and defense sectors, with supply constraints expected to keep prices elevated [9] - Cobalt supply is projected to face significant shortfalls due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with demand from the electric vehicle battery sector expected to rise [9]

Core Insights - The article highlights the integration of youth night schools with the "youth economy" in Shanghai, aiming to stimulate cultural consumption and urban development through various courses and initiatives [1][5]. Group 1: Youth Night School Initiatives - Shanghai's Youth League has launched ten measures to enhance the role of youth night schools as engines for consumption potential and urban development [1][5]. - The "Top Ten Favorite Night School Courses" reflect emerging consumer preferences among young people, covering areas such as fragrance economy, pet economy, and experience economy [1][5]. Group 2: Course Offerings and Popularity - Courses like "Pet Nutrition and Cake Making" have gained popularity, with a rapid enrollment of 20 spots filled on the first day, indicating strong interest in practical skills related to pet care [2][5]. - The "New Chinese Clothing Making" course allows participants to create traditional garments, meeting the emotional and developmental needs of young individuals [3][4]. Group 3: Educational Approach and Outcomes - The "AI Empowerment - From 0 to 1 to Build IP" course has been successful, with high demand leading to multiple sessions and expansion into new areas, demonstrating the effectiveness of hands-on learning and immediate feedback [4][5]. - The "Leap Over the Horizon Drone" course emphasizes safety and regulations, with a significant percentage of students pursuing certification and entering related industries post-training [4]. Group 4: Policy Support and Future Plans - The ten measures announced by Shanghai's Youth League include plans to establish 500 youth night school teaching points and provide subsidies for courses, aiming to create a robust framework for youth economic development [5][6]. - The initiative has already delivered approximately 500 courses since its inception, optimizing resource allocation and making quality educational opportunities accessible to more youth [6].

Market Overview - On November 26, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.15%, while the CSI 300 increased by 0.61%, the STAR Market 50 rose by 0.99%, the CSI 1000 fell by 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.14%. The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.13% [4][6] - The best-performing sectors on November 26 were telecommunications (+4.64%), comprehensive (+1.79%), electronics (+1.58%), retail (+1.11%), and home appliances (+0.96%). The worst-performing sectors were defense and military (-2.25%), social services (-0.97%), media (-0.82%), oil and petrochemicals (-0.8%), and banking (-0.79%) [4][6] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on November 26 was 17,971.9 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 3.952 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][6] Important Recommendations - The report recommends Chengda Biological (688739) due to the synergistic effects of shareholder involvement and continuous innovation. The company is expected to see accelerated transformation and revenue growth driven by mergers and acquisitions and new vaccine commercialization [7] - Revenue forecasts for Chengda Biological from 2025 to 2027 are 1,347.93 million yuan, 1,418.37 million yuan, and 1,530.02 million yuan, with growth rates of -19.59%, 5.23%, and 7.87% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 200.23 million yuan, 222.63 million yuan, and 253.73 million yuan, with growth rates of 41.59%, 11.19%, and 13.97% respectively [7] Industry Insights Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The core viewpoint emphasizes deepening value in the agricultural sector and positioning for new cyclical opportunities. The market outlook indicates continued pressure on pig prices, uncertainty in beef prices, and persistent low prices for poultry, with intensified competition in feed and animal health sectors [8][9] - The report suggests that leading pig enterprises can maintain profitability through cost advantages and structural optimization despite production capacity constraints. The feed sector is expected to see growth potential for companies with cost control and integrated supply chains, while the animal health sector may benefit from pet care and international expansion [9][12] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The non-banking financial sector is anticipated to experience a rebound in 2026, characterized by a combination of high probability and favorable odds. The market outlook for this sector is cautious due to the high base in 2025, but a potential recovery is expected amid a long-term "slow bull" market for equities [10][13] - The report highlights that the asset and liability sides of the financial sector are expected to resonate positively, supporting the overall growth of the sector [13]

在推动健康产品创新发展方面，《方案》提出支持企业加强保健食品、特殊医学用途配方食品等特殊膳 食食品研发，鼓励绿色、有机、名特优新和地理标志农产品消费。同时，聚焦高端医疗器械、可穿戴设 备、高效体外诊断设备等领域，拓展家用健康管理应用场景。在打造定制化产品上，推动旅游与康养相 结合，开展中医药保健、药膳食疗等服务。 拓展增量 在培育消费新场景新业态方面，《方案》从拓展多元兴趣消费供给、积极推动消费品首发等方面部署了 重点任务。 具体来看，针对新兴消费需求，积极发展宠物周边、动漫、潮服潮玩等兴趣消费产品。在严控风险、确 保安全的前提下，有序扩大低空旅游、航空运动、私人飞行、消费级无人机等低空消费供给；拓展汽车 改装、房车露营、汽车赛事等汽车后市场消费，促进汽车租赁高质量发展。支持企业孵化本土知识产权 （IP），创新设计文创产品、动漫周边商品等，发展品牌授权，推出系列IP授权类产品。传统商超、购 物中心、商业街设计改造时，鼓励引入"谷店"或集合型潮玩店。 以消费升级引领产业升级，以优质供给更好满足多元需求，实现供需更高水平动态平衡。11月，工信 部、国家发改委、商务部、文旅部、中国人民银行和市场监管总局联合印发《关 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，四川扶光天辰生物科技有限责任公司成立，法定代表人为李英，注册资本10万 人民币，经营范围为一般项目：技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广；数 字技术服务；生物基材料销售；生物农药技术研发；互联网销售（除销售需要许可的商品）；信息咨询 服务（不含许可类信息咨询服务）；厨具卫具及日用杂品批发；日用化学产品销售；环保咨询服务；海 洋环境服务；自然生态系统保护管理；水环境污染防治服务；水利相关咨询服务；智能农机装备销售； 宠物销售；宠物服务（不含动物诊疗）；宠物食品及用品批发；宠物食品及用品零售；日用杂品销售； 牲畜销售。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The livestock farming industry is expected to experience a resonance of cycles and growth opportunities by 2026, with the swine sector reaching a critical point of de-stocking, leading to potential value recovery for cost-leading enterprises. The beef industry is projected to maintain a high prosperity cycle until 2027, while the poultry sector shows a clear upward price trend due to supply contraction [1]. Swine Sector - The swine sector is witnessing a significant slowdown in production capacity due to ongoing losses and declining pig prices, reaching a de-stocking critical point. Leading companies with low-cost advantages are expected to realize value release, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Dekang Agriculture. Smaller pig farming companies with growth potential are also suggested for attention [2]. Beef Sector - The beef sector is in a high prosperity cycle, with slow supply recovery and rising global beef prices driven by import policy restrictions. The main upward wave of the cycle is anticipated to begin in 2026, with recommendations for companies such as Youran Dairy, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu Organic Milk [3]. Poultry Sector - In the poultry sector, the yellow chicken segment is experiencing capacity de-stocking due to continuous losses, although parent stock remains high. Companies with rapid capacity expansion and strong cost control, such as Lihua Agricultural Science and Technology, are favored. The white feather chicken segment is awaiting a cycle reversal, with recommendations for integrated leaders like Shennong Development and upstream chick leaders like Yisheng Livestock and Poultry [4]. Feed Sector - The feed sector emphasizes cost control and industry chain extension, focusing on companies with strong cost management capabilities and established overseas operations. Recommended companies include Haida Group and Bangji Technology [5]. Animal Health Sector - The animal health sector highlights the importance of research and innovation, recommending companies that can avoid price wars. Key focuses include product layout in the pet segment and breakthroughs in high-value pet pharmaceuticals. Recommended companies include Reap Bio, which benefits from the recovery of livestock prices, and companies like Kexin Bio, Plank Bio, and Zhongmu Bio with strong competitive advantages [6]. Planting Industry - The planting industry is expected to see grain prices stabilize, influenced by high production and inventory levels. Grain security remains a priority, with a shift from cyclical to growth valuations in the seed industry. Recommended companies include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with attention to seed companies like Kangnong Seed Industry and Longping High-Tech [7]. Pet Industry - The pet industry is thriving, driven by domestic demand and exports, with rapid growth of domestic brands. Key companies to watch include pet food brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., and pet supplies companies like Yuanfei Pet and Tianyuan Pet [8].