Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The overall transaction volume for commercial properties is expected to remain strong, with approximately 940 transactions and a total value of about 12.6 billion HKD in Q1 2026, showing an increase from Q4 2025, although prices may decline by 0% to 10% [1] - The rental market is projected to see around 3,600 transactions in Q1 2026, but rental levels are expected to remain soft, with a potential decline of 0% to 15% [1] Group 2: Office Market Insights - The office market is still buyer-driven, with prices under pressure; it is anticipated that office prices will remain stable in 2026, with some areas having a potential decline of about 5% [1] - Approximately 240 transactions are expected in the office market for Q1 2026, with a total transaction value of around 6 billion HKD; rental transactions are projected to be about 1,500, with rental trends mirroring the price trends, maintaining a decline within 5% [1] Group 3: Industrial Property Market - The industrial property market is expected to see around 500 transactions in Q1 2026, with a total value of approximately 3.6 billion HKD, and prices are expected to remain stable, although some areas may experience a decline of about 5% [2] - The rental performance is anticipated to improve, with around 1,200 transactions expected, and rental trends are projected to decline by 0% to 5% [2] Group 4: Retail Market Outlook - The retail market is facing challenges due to an oversupply of retail spaces and low rental levels, leading to a weak market sentiment; approximately 200 transactions are expected in Q1 2026, with a total value of about 3 billion HKD, and prices may decline by 5% to 10% [2] - Rental transactions in the retail sector are expected to reach around 900, with core area rents projected to decline by about 10%, while non-core area rents may decline by 10% to 15% [2]

Group 1 - The overall transaction volume of commercial properties in Hong Kong has slightly decreased, with a total of 346 registrations in October 2025, down 0.9% from 349 in September [1] - The performance of different property categories showed mixed results, with commercial buildings experiencing a significant drop of over 20%, while industrial buildings saw a rise of 25.3% [1] - Industrial property transactions have rebounded since August, with 188 registrations in October, a 25.3% increase from 150 in September, marking a three-month high [1] Group 2 - The registration volume for commercial buildings fell to 83 in October, a decrease of 22.4% from 107 in September, making it the third lowest month of the year [2] - The total value of commercial building transactions also declined by 16.2% to 8.42 billion HKD, marking the second lowest level of the year [2] - The number of shop transactions dropped to 75 in October, an 18.5% decrease, reaching the second lowest level in eight months, although the total value of shop transactions increased by 53.9% to 23.18 billion HKD [2]

Core Insights - The overall property transaction registrations in Hong Kong have remained high, with fluctuations influenced by market sentiment regarding policies and interest rates, as well as weather conditions and holiday periods [1][2] - In September 2025, there were 6,883 property transaction registrations, a 6% increase from August's 6,488, marking a stabilization after two months of decline [1] - The total value of property registrations in September rose by 13% to HKD 54.517 billion, the highest in three months [1] Residential Market - The primary residential market showed strong performance in September, with transaction registrations nearing 2,000, marking the third highest month of the year [1] - The number of primary residential transactions increased by 15% to 1,987, while the total value surged by 25% to HKD 22.330 billion, the second highest of the year [1] - The top three new developments for primary residential registrations in September were Kai Bo Fung II (370 transactions), BLUE COAST II (116 transactions), and Shang Yan Phase 3 (93 transactions) [1] Secondary Residential Market - The secondary residential market rebounded in September, with transaction registrations increasing by 6% to 3,305, maintaining a level above 3,000 for six consecutive months [2] - The total value of secondary residential transactions rose by 12% to HKD 25.010 billion, indicating a positive trend in the market [2] Non-Residential Market - The non-residential market underperformed, with a slight decline in overall transaction registrations, primarily due to a nearly 10% drop in parking space transactions [2] - The total registrations for commercial properties and others fell by 2% to 785, while the total transaction value plummeted by 22% to HKD 3.916 billion [2] - Despite the overall decline, industrial and commercial buildings saw significant increases of nearly 30% and nearly 40%, respectively, but the numbers were insufficient to offset the overall downturn [2] Market Outlook - The market sentiment remains positive, but there are expectations of a slowdown in October due to the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, which may hinder transaction progress [2] - Recent data indicates a contraction in secondary market transactions in late September, leading to predictions of a potential decline in overall property transaction registrations in October, possibly testing the 6,240 level, which would be the lowest in nearly eight months [2]