2026年以来，日本股市和汇率走势背道而驰。日本股市表现强劲，日经225指数在1月14日盘中升至54487.32点，再创历史新高；日元汇率持续贬值，美元兑 日元汇率最高升至159.46，相比去年年底，日元兑美元汇率贬值了近1%。 图为日经225指数走势 其次，日本央行的资产购买计划。通过长期ETF购买计划，日本央行持有的日股市值已超过日本政府养老投资基金（GPIF），成为日本股市的最大单一持股 者。截至2025年9月底，日本央行持有的ETF市值高达83万亿日元。 再次，海外资金追捧。以巴菲特为代表的国际资本看多日本股市。宽松的金融环境、疲软的日元和财政刺激三大因素叠加，使得日本股市吸引了越来越多的 海外机构投资者。数据显示，2024财年，海外投资者的持股比例达到创纪录的32.4%。此外，2025年12月下旬，境外投资者重新恢复净买入日本权益资产， 流入资金达到4671亿日元。 日元汇率可以反映日本经济现状，而日本股市上涨与财政刺激、宽松的流动性、日本企业海外收益增长、日本央行购买资产和外资流入有很大关系，日本经 济疲软导致居民入市相对谨慎。如果日本利率升至1%以上，且日本央行停止购买股票ETF，那么日本股市涨 ...

Economic Challenges - Japan's economy faced two major challenges: weak consumer market performance and export impacts due to tariffs [2][8] - In Q1 2025, Japan's GDP contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, marking the first decline since Q2 2024, with annualized GDP shrinking by 0.7% [2] - Private consumption remained flat in Q1, contributing only 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth, while net exports negatively impacted GDP growth by 3.3 percentage points due to a 0.6% decline in exports [2][3] Inflation and Consumer Spending - High inflation has led to stagnation in consumer spending, with the GDP deflator index rising by 3.3% year-on-year in Q1, surpassing the previous year's 3.1% [2] - Despite a 4.3% increase in employee compensation in Q1, real disposable income for households fell by 2.5% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of negative growth [3] Export and Tariff Impacts - The appreciation of the yen and U.S. tariffs have significantly impacted Japan's exports, with a reported 8.2% appreciation against the dollar as of May 20 [3][4] - In March, Japan's export growth slowed to 5.6% year-on-year, down from 9% the previous year, indicating a decline in export performance [3] Automotive Industry and Tariffs - The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on key automotive parts, which could severely affect Japan's automotive industry, a critical sector contributing 50% of manufacturing output and 30% of total exports [4] - Estimates suggest that U.S. tariffs could reduce Japan's GDP by 0.59% and lead to a potential profit loss of nearly $30 billion in the automotive sector [4] Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The Bank of Japan is in a difficult position, needing to balance interest rate normalization with the risk of further economic suppression and currency depreciation [5] - As of May 10, the Bank of Japan's total assets decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [5][7] Bond Market and Liquidity Issues - Japan's bond market is experiencing significant sell-offs due to tariff impacts and quantitative tightening, leading to liquidity pressures [7] - The auction for 20-year government bonds on May 20 was the worst since 2012, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.5 times, reflecting market concerns [7] Overall Market Outlook - Japan's economy is under pressure from weak consumption and tariff impacts, with the potential for significant risks in the stock market [8] - Investors may consider using micro Nikkei 225 index futures to hedge against these risks in the current economic climate [8]