针对这一流行观点，即"虽然从购买力平价来看人民币的长期升值潜力很大，但由于经济非常依赖出口，所以国家一定会对人民币过快升值进行干 预"，本号上期内容指出，汇率并非决定出口的唯一因素，人民币升值对出口的冲击叙事被高估了。 2025年6月11日"人民币汇率真会涨到5吗"那期内容指出，购买力平价理论以商品的跨国套利为根基，是在简单商品经济时代产生的，但现代经济 已高度服务化，而服务难以跨国套利，且经济的高度金融化使得只有约5%的外汇交易与国际贸易有关，所以不必指望人民币会因购买力平价而涨 到5。 那国家的态度是怎样的呢？2025年3月潘行在两会上强调"坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用，保持汇率弹性。同时强化预期引导，坚决防范汇 率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定。" 2025年一季度货币政策执行报告也有类似表述，如"坚持以市场供求为基础""参考一篮子货币进行调节""有管理的浮动汇率制度"等。央行在其他 文件和场合中的表态也差不多，可以说是一贯的、一致的。 其实央行一直在调控，但不是死守某个点位，而是管理预期加防范超调，即不追求人为的高或低，而是要有序波动，避免失控的单边走势，因为 单边升值或贬值会带 ...

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 段明珠 编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | AI生图 在当下的巴西，总统像是"二进制"的，不是走进总统府，就是走进监狱。 这，或许才是巴西资本市场最深层次的波动源。 但为何跟踪巴西IBOVESPA指数的ETF产品会在募集期间被资金火速抢空，申购资金达到目标的 7 倍？平均每户投入二三十万元，典型的"成熟资金"配 置规模，难道成熟投资者不知道其中的风险吗？ 看巴西ETF的走势，上市首日涨停开盘后一路下跌，并在一段缓慢修复后又暴跌"回到解放前"。对于巴西ETF，投资者在抢什么？又在担心什么？巴西 ETF本质上是商品期货替代吗？未来是否会出现"股债汇三杀，从而导致ETF暴跌"的风险？ 但为何之前境外ETF产品如沙特ETF、日经ETF等能如此吸金？最终，对普通投资者来说，在存款利率不断下行，大A震荡调整时，境外ETF产品是否 值得配置？ 投资者在抢什么？ 不久前，证监会主席吴清访问巴西里约热内卢，并与巴西证监会代理主席卢博交流；前后脚，两只巴西ETF上市且以涨停价开盘。 可惜的是，上市即巅峰。两只巴西ETF当日分时图典型"高开-回落-平收"，超高换手率说明短线打新资金多选择了"落袋为安"，而当 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：粤开志恒宏观 粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长：罗志恒 首席宏观分析师：马家进 摘要 12月25日，人民币对美元离岸汇率盘中升破7.0，在岸汇率距离"破7"也仅一步之遥。 1、2025年人民币对美元汇率显著走强，尤其是11月下旬以来呈加速升值态势，但人民币对一篮子货币 汇率仍小幅贬值。截至12月24日，2025年人民币对美元汇率升值4%，但美元指数下跌9.7%，表明美元 贬值是人民币对美元汇率升值的主要原因。截至12月19日，人民币对一篮子货币汇率的CFETS人民币汇 率指数下降3.5%，反映出人民币对非美货币总体贬值。 2、人民币对美元汇率升值，主要受四股力量驱动：一是美元指数走弱，人民币对美元汇率被动走强； 二是中国股市走强，人民币资产吸引力上升；三是年底出口企业结汇需求上升，同时人民币汇率升值进 一步推高结汇意愿，企业结汇与汇率升值相互促进；四是中国人民银行为保持人民币对一篮子货币汇率 稳定，引导人民币对美元汇率合理有序升值。 3、市场担忧人民币对美元汇率升值会对中国出口造成不利影响，但需要注意的是，真正影响出口的， 不是人 ...

以下文章来源于粤开志恒宏观 ，作者罗志恒 粤开志恒宏观 . 在这里，一起解读中国与世界。立足中国，全球视野；宏大叙事，微观关怀。 12月25日，人民币对美元离岸汇率盘中升破7.0，在岸汇率距离"破7"也仅一步之遥。 1、2025年人民币对美元汇率显著走强，尤其是11月下旬以来呈加速升值态势，但人民币对一篮子 货币汇率仍小幅贬值。 截至12月24日，2025年人民币对美元汇率升值4%，但美元指数下跌 9.7%，表明美元贬值是人民币对美元汇率升值的主要原因。截至12月19日，人民币对一篮子货币 汇率的CFETS人民币汇率指数下降3.5%，反映出人民币对非美货币总体贬值。 2、人民币对美元汇率升值，主要受四股力量驱动： 一是美元指数走弱，人民币对美元汇率被动走 强；二是中国股市走强，人民币资产吸引力上升；三是年底出口企业结汇需求上升，同时人民币汇率 升值进一步推高结汇意愿，企业结汇与汇率升值相互促进；四是中国人民银行为保持人民币对一篮子 货币汇率稳定，引导人民币对美元汇率合理有序升值。 3、市场担忧人民币对美元汇率升值会对中国出口造成不利影响，但需要注意的是，真正影响出口 的，不是人民币对美元汇率，而是人民币对一篮 ...

所有人都注意到了，人民币近期很强势。 这个时候，很多专家出来发表观点是百家争鸣的好事；但是，有些人无底线地带节奏就不对了。 你们记住，无论人民币将来最终的结局如何，影响的始终是老百姓，而高高在上的"专家"几乎不会受到任何冲击， 人民币的温和升值，与国内扩大内需战略形成良性呼应，让进口成本下降的红利逐步传导至民生消费。 这当然无可厚非。 但是，你们要注意了，一些国内外专家鼓吹人民币应大幅升值50%，甚至到6、5乃至4的水平，这就有点"带节奏"的嫌疑了。 人民币适度升值的核心价值，在于通过降低进口成本，为国内消费市场释放更多可支配收入，拉动内需。 众所周知，中国是全球最大原油进口国，前11个月进口5.2187亿吨，同比增长3.2%。中国战略储备显著提升，结合商业库存，覆盖消费天数远超国际能源署 90天标准，估算达120—180天。 面对俄乌冲突、美国对委内瑞拉升级封锁的局势。人民币的温和升值，使得原油进口成本有效降低，极大地保障了能源安全。 此外，你们可能没注意到，化纤原料作为原油衍生品，原油进口成本的下降也让服装、家纺等日用品价格更具弹性，普通家庭的衣着消费压力进一步减轻。 除此之外，进口大豆也有异曲同工之妙。 ...

这个价格又是怎么定出来的呢？ 有这么一种说法，叫做购买力平价理论。 相同的商品和劳务，在两个国家价格却不一样，说明货币购买力不同。 于是根据购买力平价理论，两国的汇率就是： 近日，人民币对美元的汇率延续升值势头， 创下近一年新高！ 那到底什么是汇率呢？ 汇率是指两种货币的折算比率。 但在纸币制度下， 购买力平价理论与实际汇率的偏差幅度还是蛮大的。 实际影响汇率变动的因素主要有： 而本轮人民币对美元升值， 主要有以下原因。 一是美国总统川普一直希望通过美元降息来刺激经济， 据说川普基本确定了新的美联储主席人选，标准是绝对忠诚。 所以，市场也普遍判断美联储未来可能会有更多降息， 美元贬值，人民币就会相应升值。 二是美国发动关税战，前期关税前景不明确，而随着两国达成了贸易协定，未来还有可能会更进一步互降关税，减少了不确定性，利于人民币稳定和升 值。 此外我国出口依然强劲，顺差也是人民币能表现强劲的原因。 总之，短期内人民币还会处于偏强运行状态，将提振资本市场信心，会吸引更多海外资金流入国内资本市场。 不管怎么说，我国依旧保持汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定为目标，参考一篮子货币进行调节，采用有管理的浮动汇率制度。 为此 ...

政治稳定性与地缘局势变化也会对汇率产生冲击。若一国政治局势动荡或面临地缘冲突风险，可能引发 市场对该国经济前景的担忧，导致资本外流，本币汇率波动加剧。此外，市场情绪作为一种短期影响因 素，会通过投资者的买卖行为影响汇率走势，比如市场对某国经济的乐观或悲观预期，可能在短期内推 动汇率出现阶段性变化。 以上信息由金融界利用AI助手整理发布。金融界是国内专业的金融信息服务平台，专注于为用户提供 全面、及时的财经资讯及金融知识内容，覆盖宏观经济、金融市场、产业动态等多个领域，致力于通过 专业的信息整合与解读，帮助用户提升对金融市场的认知与理解。 免责声明：本文内容根据公开信息整理生成，不代表发布者及其关联方的官方立场或观点，亦不构成任 何形式的投资建议。请您对文中关键信息进行独立核实，自主决策并承担相应风险。 经济基本面是影响汇率长期走势的关键因素之一。一国的经济增长速度、就业状况、产业结构等指标， 直接反映了该国经济的整体活力与发展潜力。当经济增长态势良好时，往往会吸引更多海外资本流入， 进而推动本国货币需求增加，汇率面临升值压力；反之，若经济增速放缓或出现衰退迹象，资本可能外 流，导致本币汇率承压。根据2025年 ...

Report Summary Core View - The long - term upward trend of gold and silver prices is due to the continuous and historical loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value, which is manifested in the decline of its internal and external purchasing power and the weakening of its global mandatory power [3][6][7] Key Points Market Performance - As of November 12, 2025, the spot and futures prices of silver reached new historical highs, with the domestic price standing at 12,500 yuan per kilogram and Comex silver approaching $54 per ounce. Silver outperformed gold, and there are new underlying logics emerging [2] Traditional Gold Analysis Framework Breakdown - Before 2024, gold price discussions mainly revolved around the US dollar and US Treasury yields. However, since 2022, the Fed's interest - rate hikes and rising US inflation have led to a situation where gold prices and US Treasury yields have risen simultaneously, breaking the traditional inverse relationship [2][3] US Dollar's Intrinsic Value Analysis - **Purchasing Power**: The US dollar's internal and external purchasing power has been in an irreversible decline. Domestically, inflation has eroded its internal purchasing power, and externally, the process of de - globalization since 2016 has weakened its external purchasing power, including factors such as resource protectionism in South America and the decline of US influence on energy prices [4][6] - **Compulsory Power**: The US dollar's global compulsory power has been declining since 2018, which is an important background for the loss of its intrinsic value [7] US Dollar Index and Gold - Silver Price Relationship - The US dollar index is a relative indicator and does not reflect the loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value. Gold and silver can mark the loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value, and the long - term upward trend of gold and silver prices has an inherent logical sustainability [6][7]

Group 1 - The article highlights the recent surge in silver prices, with domestic prices reaching 12,500 yuan per kilogram and Comex silver nearing 54 dollars per ounce, indicating a historical high [3] - It suggests that silver is outperforming gold and may be evolving into a "people's monetary metal" in Europe and the US, driven by government actions related to gold [3] - The long-term upward trend in precious metals is attributed to stable driving factors, with a focus on the valuation currency perspective [3][6] Group 2 - Traditional frameworks for analyzing precious metals face challenges, particularly in the context of rising real interest rates since 2022, which have led to price adjustments in gold [6] - The article discusses the impact of liquidity changes on the relationship between gold and US Treasury yields, noting that increased liquidity can lead to simultaneous rises in both gold prices and Treasury yields [6][9] - It emphasizes the historical decline in the intrinsic value of the US dollar, which is reflected in the rising prices of gold and silver [9][11] Group 3 - The article examines the internal and external purchasing power of the US dollar, indicating a long-term decline in both aspects, which contributes to the ongoing loss of the dollar's intrinsic value [10][11] - It points out that the dollar's purchasing power has been affected by various global economic factors, including resource nationalism in South America and geopolitical conflicts [10][11] - The discussion includes the notion that the dollar's status as a global currency is under pressure, leading to a potential shift towards gold and silver as alternative stores of value [12][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The long - term upward trend of gold and silver prices is due to the continuous and irreversible decline of the US dollar's intrinsic value, including the decline of its internal and external purchasing power and coercive force. The rise of gold and silver prices represents the historical loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value, and this upward trend has an inherent logical continuity [2][3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Condition - As of November 12, 2025, the spot and futures prices of silver hit a new high. The domestic price reached 12,500 yuan per kilogram, and Comex silver was close to $54 per ounce. Silver outperformed gold, and there was a new logic that silver might become the "people's monetary metal" in Europe and the US. The short - term trigger might be the news of the US government's vote to end the shutdown, while the long - term trend has stable driving factors [2]. Traditional Gold Analysis Framework and Its Break - Before 2024, the discussion of gold prices mainly revolved around the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields. In the context of relatively stable total liquidity, US Treasury bond yields are the cost of holding gold, so higher yields suppress gold prices. In the stage of loose liquidity, investment institutions may increase their holdings of both gold and US Treasury bonds, leading to an inverse relationship between gold prices and US Treasury bond yields [2]. - Since 2022, the Fed's interest rate hikes have led to an increase in real interest rates and a short - term adjustment in gold prices. As US inflation rises, dollar - denominated assets tend to be bubble - like, and the credit of US Treasury bonds is questioned. Governments' reserve adjustment operations may involve selling US dollar assets (US Treasury bonds) and buying gold. This has led to a situation where gold prices are strong and US Treasury bond yields are rising, breaking the traditional analysis framework [3]. US Dollar's Intrinsic Value and Its Loss - Gold has a strong currency attribute. It is mainly denominated in US dollars, and at the same time, it measures the intrinsic value of the US dollar. The historical rise of gold prices actually represents the historical loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value [3]. - The US dollar's internal and external purchasing power has been in an irreversible decline in recent years. The internal purchasing power can be measured by CPI growth, and the external purchasing power has declined due to factors such as resource protectionism in South America, the decline of US influence on energy prices, and trade conflicts. However, the US dollar index has remained relatively stable, which is due to the currency illusion caused by the foreign exchange pricing system. The US dollar index is a relative indicator, while gold and silver can mark the loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value [4][6]. - The US dollar is a credit currency, and its credit is based on its coercive force in the global scope, which is supported by military, political, diplomatic, and economic capabilities. Since 2018, the decline of its coercive force globally is an important background for the loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value [7]. Historical Preference for Precious Metals - According to Keynes' theory, gold and silver as metallic currencies have a long - standing place in people's minds, and only in a few periods of "intellectually stubborn laissez - faire" could people get rid of their dependence on gold and silver [8].