Report Summary Core View - The long - term upward trend of gold and silver prices is due to the continuous and historical loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value, which is manifested in the decline of its internal and external purchasing power and the weakening of its global mandatory power [3][6][7] Key Points Market Performance - As of November 12, 2025, the spot and futures prices of silver reached new historical highs, with the domestic price standing at 12,500 yuan per kilogram and Comex silver approaching $54 per ounce. Silver outperformed gold, and there are new underlying logics emerging [2] Traditional Gold Analysis Framework Breakdown - Before 2024, gold price discussions mainly revolved around the US dollar and US Treasury yields. However, since 2022, the Fed's interest - rate hikes and rising US inflation have led to a situation where gold prices and US Treasury yields have risen simultaneously, breaking the traditional inverse relationship [2][3] US Dollar's Intrinsic Value Analysis - **Purchasing Power**: The US dollar's internal and external purchasing power has been in an irreversible decline. Domestically, inflation has eroded its internal purchasing power, and externally, the process of de - globalization since 2016 has weakened its external purchasing power, including factors such as resource protectionism in South America and the decline of US influence on energy prices [4][6] - **Compulsory Power**: The US dollar's global compulsory power has been declining since 2018, which is an important background for the loss of its intrinsic value [7] US Dollar Index and Gold - Silver Price Relationship - The US dollar index is a relative indicator and does not reflect the loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value. Gold and silver can mark the loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value, and the long - term upward trend of gold and silver prices has an inherent logical sustainability [6][7]

Group 1 - The article highlights the recent surge in silver prices, with domestic prices reaching 12,500 yuan per kilogram and Comex silver nearing 54 dollars per ounce, indicating a historical high [3] - It suggests that silver is outperforming gold and may be evolving into a "people's monetary metal" in Europe and the US, driven by government actions related to gold [3] - The long-term upward trend in precious metals is attributed to stable driving factors, with a focus on the valuation currency perspective [3][6] Group 2 - Traditional frameworks for analyzing precious metals face challenges, particularly in the context of rising real interest rates since 2022, which have led to price adjustments in gold [6] - The article discusses the impact of liquidity changes on the relationship between gold and US Treasury yields, noting that increased liquidity can lead to simultaneous rises in both gold prices and Treasury yields [6][9] - It emphasizes the historical decline in the intrinsic value of the US dollar, which is reflected in the rising prices of gold and silver [9][11] Group 3 - The article examines the internal and external purchasing power of the US dollar, indicating a long-term decline in both aspects, which contributes to the ongoing loss of the dollar's intrinsic value [10][11] - It points out that the dollar's purchasing power has been affected by various global economic factors, including resource nationalism in South America and geopolitical conflicts [10][11] - The discussion includes the notion that the dollar's status as a global currency is under pressure, leading to a potential shift towards gold and silver as alternative stores of value [12][13]

刻踪 | 信号承诺 白银:金银计量美元内在价值流失 我们注意到上世纪80年代以来，以美国为主导的全球经济贸易体系和货币体系是其长期维持偏低通服水平的主要基础。这一体系以比较优势理 论为基础，在单极化政治格局主导下的自由贸易条件下，形成以美国为中心的国际分工格局，使得美元在这一体系中，在全球范围内以相对最低的价 格购买瓷源、产品和服务。相应的,2016年以来的逆全球化过程对这一体系的挫伤,无疑削弱了美元的对外购买力。其中,南美的资源保护主义导 致拉美地区的金属生产成本提升，美国从中东地区〈阿富汗〉撤军以及俄乌战争导致美对能源价格的影响力下降，广泛的贸易冲突提升了美国从海外 购买各类资源、产品(工业产成品价格洼地在中国)的成本。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 点有成金 行情简述: 截至2025年11月12日，自银期现货价格再创历史新高，国内站上12500元每公斤，Comex自银接近54美元每盎司。白银走势在taco方向下继续 跑赢黄金，新增逻辑隐隐浮现:由于黄金主要为政府行为，白银有成为欧美的"人民货币金属"的倾向。从短期触发因素看，当天夜里10点有关美 国政府将进行结束停摆的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, particularly in light of the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4000-point mark for the third time in history, and analyzes the long-term outlook for A-shares amidst historical economic challenges and transformations in China [1][6]. Historical Context - The first breakthrough of 4000 points in 2007 was characterized by visible valuation bubbles, with blue-chip stocks trading at 40-50 times earnings and small-cap stocks exceeding 100 times, while the real estate and trust sectors offered around 10% returns, creating a "capital black hole" that suppressed stock valuations [1]. - In 2015, the second breakthrough occurred amid discussions of economic weakness, shadow banking, and local government debt, leading to a lack of confidence despite reasonable blue-chip valuations, resulting in a retreat from the 4000-point level [1]. Current Economic Landscape - Today, issues such as shadow banking, local debt, and overheated real estate have been effectively addressed, and while new challenges like trade wars exist, the Chinese economy has transformed, relying more on domestic demand and consumption, with innovation becoming the primary growth driver [1][2]. Infrastructure and Economic Stability - China leads globally in social durable goods, including water infrastructure, high-speed rail, electricity generation, and 5G base stations, which contributes to lower long-term interest rates and higher valuation levels [2][5]. - The country’s infrastructure projects, such as the restoration of historically significant waterways and the expansion of high-speed rail, are expected to enhance economic stability and growth potential [5]. Valuation and Discount Rates - The article references economist Irving Fisher's insights on discount rates, noting that societies with more durable goods tend to have lower interest rates and higher valuation levels [3][4]. - The current rolling price-to-earnings ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index is 17 times, with a dividend yield of 2.3%, while the dividend index shows an 8 times rolling P/E ratio and a 4.2% yield, indicating a favorable risk-return profile for A-shares [6]. Currency and Global Investment Appeal - The article highlights the potential for the renminbi to appreciate, enhancing the attractiveness of A-shares to global investors, especially as more commodities are traded in renminbi [7][8]. - The combination of economic growth, valuation improvement, and currency appreciation presents a compelling investment opportunity in A-shares for long-term capital [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the RMB/USD exchange rate, highlighting the factors contributing to the RMB's appreciation and the underlying economic conditions that support this trend [2][4][14]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB experienced a series of fluctuations in 2023, initially appreciating in a weak dollar environment, then depreciating due to tariff concerns, before regaining strength [2]. - The RMB's middle price, onshore price, and offshore price have all shown a tendency to converge towards the 7.0 level, indicating a unified market response [2][4]. Group 2: Core Pillars of RMB Valuation - The three core pillars influencing RMB valuation are the China-US interest rate differential, policy risk premium, and purchasing power parity (PPP) [4]. - The narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential has been a fundamental basis for the RMB's appreciation over the past three months, with the nominal interest rate spread decreasing by nearly 50 basis points [4][5]. - The actual interest rate differential has also narrowed, with China's low inflation levels contrasting with rising inflation in the US, enhancing the relative attractiveness of Chinese assets [5][7]. Group 3: Policy Risk and Market Sentiment - The policy risk premium for Chinese assets is decreasing, while it is rising for US assets, driven by concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve [7]. - The stability of RMB assets is becoming a rare value in a globally turbulent macroeconomic environment, as China's reforms and policy stability are expected to further reduce the sovereign risk premium [7][11]. Group 4: Purchasing Power Parity - The RMB is currently undervalued against the USD based on purchasing power parity, with the IMF indicating that 1 USD has the purchasing power equivalent to 3.4 RMB [9]. - Long-term undervaluation is attributed to capital account restrictions and international investor concerns regarding China's economic transition [11]. Group 5: Catalysts for RMB Appreciation - The recent strong performance of the RMB is attributed to both internal and external factors, including the central bank's strong midpoint guidance and geopolitical considerations [14][15]. - The influx of foreign capital into the A-share market, driven by a bullish sentiment, has created additional demand for RMB, contributing to its appreciation [19]. - Companies are accelerating their currency conversion from USD to RMB, as the cost of holding USD increases amid anticipated US interest rate cuts [22]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The weak dollar environment is expected to continue supporting RMB appreciation, although challenges such as declining export expectations and the need for domestic demand recovery remain [25].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **commodity supercycle** and the impact of **anti-involution policies** on the **midstream materials and manufacturing industries**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Anti-Involution Policies**: Anti-involution policies may lead to a revaluation of midstream materials and manufacturing industries, similar to the utility price increase trend observed in 2023-2024. Focus on industries with negative ROC minus VAC indicators, such as **coke, rebar, plastics, fiberglass, and photovoltaic equipment** [1][2][5]. 2. **Drivers of Commodity Supercycle**: The commodity supercycle is driven by **de-globalization** and **de-dollarization**. De-globalization restricts factor flow, raising inflation, while de-dollarization leads to increased commodity pricing. Historical parallels are drawn to the 1970s commodity bull market due to similar conditions [3][9]. 3. **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The Renminbi's exchange rate is highly correlated with market trends. In the medium term, the price gap between China and the US supports Renminbi appreciation, although short-term risks from US debt issuance could pressure the A-share market [1][6]. 4. **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to follow the **Barbell Strategy**, allocating 80% of investments to safe assets like **gold, banks, resources, and utilities**, and 20% to sectors with potential catalysts such as **domestic computing power, robotics, and Hainan Free Trade Zone** [1][7]. 5. **US Treasury Account and Interest Rates**: The US Treasury General Account (TGA) needs to be replenished quickly, which may lead to a rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to near or above 5%. This could impact dollar liquidity and put pressure on the A-share market, particularly growth-style stocks [1][8]. 6. **Historical Context of Anti-Involution**: The current anti-involution policy is seen as part of a broader strategy to address economic deflation, with historical precedents in 1999 and 2015-2016. The focus should also be on demand-side policies [5][11]. 7. **Measuring Industry Involution**: The difference between ROIC and WACC serves as a measure of industry involution. Negative values indicate industries that are not creating value, with many midstream manufacturing and materials sectors currently in this state [12]. 8. **Recent Performance of Involved Industries**: Industries with high involution levels, such as **coke, rebar, plastics, fiberglass, and photovoltaic equipment**, have shown significant recent performance improvements, indicating potential investment opportunities [14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Commodity Price Trends**: From July 2022 to the present, gold and silver prices have increased by 100%, while platinum has risen by over 40%. Scarce metals have also seen significant price increases, suggesting a likely upward trend in commodity pricing [10]. 2. **Sector-Specific Insights**: Certain commodities like **alumina and live pigs** have seen price increases not due to anti-involution but rather as part of the broader commodity supercycle, indicating the complexity of market dynamics [15][16]. 3. **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: In the absence of a fundamental reversal in globalization trends, a suggested asset allocation strategy includes 80% in safe assets and 20% in technology and AI sectors, providing a balanced approach to risk management [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing division within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a rate cut in July rising significantly [2][5][11] - As of June 27, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 75.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 24.8% [2][5] - The internal division among Federal Reserve officials is evident, with 8 supporting two rate cuts and 7 opposing, indicating a close split [5][11] Group 2 - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. dollar, which fell below the 97 mark on June 26, reaching its lowest level since February 2022, with a daily decline of 0.72% [14] - The dollar has depreciated approximately 4% over the past month, reflecting a broader trend of "de-dollarization" and market skepticism about the U.S. economy [17] - Global stock indices are showing renewed trading sentiment, with the Nasdaq approaching its yearly high, influenced by expectations of a rate cut [18] Group 3 - Commodity prices are being preemptively adjusted in anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which is expected to stimulate the U.S. economy [19] - The article notes that the EIA inventory data has shown a continuous decline over five weeks, indicating stable market demand for oil [19] - The article emphasizes the importance of upcoming non-farm payroll data for gold trading, as the U.S. economy has shown signs of contraction, which may influence Federal Reserve decisions [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the notion of China being the world's largest consumer market based on selective product consumption data is misleading and does not reflect the true state of consumer capability and economic structure in China [1][6]. Consumption Data Analysis - Claims that China's consumption of pork, freshwater fish, cars, and air conditioners surpasses that of the U.S. are based on selective data, ignoring the overall consumption capacity and economic context [1][2]. - China's Engel's coefficient stands at 28.4%, indicating that a significant portion of household spending is still on basic needs, unlike the U.S. at 7.3%, which reflects a more developed consumption structure [2][6]. Economic Structure and Consumer Capability - The article emphasizes that comparing consumption based on specific products like pork and fish is flawed, as it does not account for income levels and overall spending power [1][4]. - The disparity in income levels between China and the U.S. suggests that China's lower wages directly impact its consumption capacity, making it inappropriate to use purchasing power parity without considering these factors [4][5]. Misleading Comparisons - The article critiques the use of purchasing power parity as a basis for comparison, highlighting its core flaw of not considering wage and income level differences [3][4]. - It questions the validity of claims that China's retail sales can be inflated to match or exceed those of the U.S. based on simplified currency comparisons [3][4]. Policy Implications - The article stresses the need for effective measures to increase residents' income and stimulate consumption rather than engaging in debates about being the largest consumer market [6]. - It highlights that addressing the challenges of low consumer capability and income disparity is crucial for China's economic transformation in the coming decade [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent strengthening of East Asian currencies, particularly the New Taiwan Dollar, against the backdrop of optimistic expectations regarding tariff negotiations and the weakening of the US dollar [1][2][5]. Currency Performance - During the May 1 holiday, East Asian currencies, including the New Taiwan Dollar, Hong Kong Dollar, and South Korean Won, collectively appreciated, with the New Taiwan Dollar rising over 9% in two trading days [1]. - The offshore Renminbi also showed strength, surpassing the 7.19 mark for the first time since November of the previous year [2]. Economic Context - The strengthening of East Asian currencies is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar and the trade surpluses maintained by economies like South Korea and Taiwan, which have accumulated significant dollar assets [2][5]. - The US dollar index has been on a downward trend since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, with the index falling below 100 due to concerns over "stagflation" risks and uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies [2][3]. US Economic Indicators - The US GDP for the first quarter declined at an annualized rate of -0.3%, which was below market expectations, indicating economic slowdown [2][4]. - Consumer confidence in the US has also dropped, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index falling to 52.2, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline [3]. Investment Trends - Private investment in the US showed a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.9%, contributing 3.6 percentage points to GDP, largely driven by inventory accumulation [3][4]. - However, as the "reciprocal tariffs" take effect, the support from inventory for GDP is expected to weaken in the second quarter [3]. Trade Deficits - The US trade deficit is projected to reach $1.2 trillion in 2024, with significant deficits against East Asian countries, particularly China, Mexico, and Vietnam [6]. - Taiwan's trade surplus is bolstered by its competitive advantages in the semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors, which constitute a large portion of its exports [10]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the US economy is likely to slow down but not enter a recession, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain a cautious approach regarding interest rate changes [4][5]. - The long-term outlook for the Renminbi remains positive due to strong domestic policies and economic resilience, while the A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend amid favorable conditions [16].