对于今年行情的发展趋势，丁文韬表示，当前资本市场活力强劲，上证指数已突破十年新高。在基本面 和估值修复的双重共振下，A股依然将延续慢牛趋势，且已具备走出慢牛行情的基础。从底层动力来 看，中国经济进入高质量发展阶段，新动能逐步承接旧动能；从制度层面而言，新"国九条"的颁布，有 利于建设长钱长投的资本市场生态；从市场主体质量来讲，中国上市公司质量持续提高，资本市场 含"科"量不断提升，目前A股科技板块市值占比超过1/4，上市公司正从聚焦主业、科技创新、强化管理 等多维度发力，推动资本市场健康发展。 资本市场深化改革加速推进的背景下，科创板"1+6"改革、"并购六条"等政策组合拳先后出台，第五套 上市标准重启并扩展至商业航天与AI领域。丁文韬认为，这一系列举措正从多方面重构资本市场生 态，注入新动能。在融资生态上，实现精准突破，科创板设置科创成长层，为未盈利企业上市开辟"专 属通道"，第五套上市标准扩容让商业航天、人工智能等前沿领域企业迎来发展曙光，科技企业获得全 周期赋能；在产业整合方面，效能全面提升，"并购六条"推出的分期支付机制、简易审核程序等改革， 加速优质资产向上市公司集中，跨行业并购有望催生新质生产力， ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing US-China tariff war is creating uncertainty in the global economy, leading to concerns among clients and impacting demand forecasts for the semiconductor industry. The situation requires careful observation before making predictions about the economic outlook for the year [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The chairman of a leading semiconductor foundry noted that the tariff situation is still evolving, making it difficult to predict the global economic landscape. The potential for demand decline could have severe repercussions for the global economy if the US-China tensions are not resolved peacefully [1]. - The imposition of tariffs by the US, while initially excluding semiconductor chips, has created a climate of uncertainty that complicates industry forecasts. Companies are responding differently, with some increasing shipments to the US while others are concerned about inventory accumulation [1][2]. Group 2: Company Strategy and Investments - The company has no plans to establish manufacturing facilities in the US, focusing instead on its ongoing investment in a 12-inch wafer fab in Singapore, with an investment of nearly 200 billion TWD. The company remains committed to its existing investment plans despite the tariff situation [4]. - The company is on track with its joint venture in Singapore, with the first 12-inch fab expected to begin production in the second half of 2026 and reach mass production by 2027. The anticipated monthly capacity for the fab by 2029 is 55,000 wafers, which will create approximately 1,500 jobs and contribute to the semiconductor ecosystem [5]. Group 3: Future Projections - The company expects a moderate growth in the semiconductor market by 2025, contingent on the recovery of inventory levels. However, the ongoing tariff conflict has rendered many forecasts unreliable, making it challenging to predict future trends accurately [2]. - The company plans to allocate 60-70 billion TWD for capital expenditures in 2025, with over 90% directed towards the new Singapore 12-inch fab, ensuring a stable supply of mature process capacity [4].