8月11日早盘，"牛市旗手"券商高开后持续向上，A股顶流券商ETF（512000）盘中冲击2%，场内交投 尤为活跃，不到半日成交额已超6.3亿元，已超上日全天成交额！ 成份股方面，49家上市券商全线飘红，国盛金控盘中触及涨停，华鑫股份、东方财富、湘财股份等纷纷 跟涨。 消息面，两融余额作为市场情绪和杠杆水平的重要指标，自8月5日以来截至8月8日，已连续4个交易日 在2万亿元上方，持续位于10年来高位。 据每经新闻分析，相比2015年牛市，本次突破有着截然不同的市场背景与运行逻辑。2015年，两融余额 在市场狂热、杠杆无序的助推下迅速攀升，最终以剧烈的市场震荡收尾；而此次突破，是在经济结构优 化、监管严格、投资者日趋成熟的环境下实现，标志着A股市场正迈向更为稳健、理性的发展阶段。 数据来源：沪深交易所等。 风险提示：券商ETF被动跟踪中证全指证券公司指数，该指数基日为2007.6.29，发布于2013.7.15。指数 成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整。文中指数成份股仅作展示，个股描述不作为任何形式的投资 建议，也不代表管理人旗下任何基金的持仓信息和交易动向。基金管理人评估的本基金风险等级为R3- 中风险，适 ...

大家周末好！马上又要开盘了，过去的一周交易日，沪指涨2.11%，深证成指涨1.25%，创业板指涨 0.49%。A股后市怎么走？一起回顾下周末的大事，以及看看券商分析师们的最新研判。 周末大事 停产！重大利好 据期货日报，8月9日，从市场各方交叉求证获悉，宁德时代枧下窝矿区采矿端将于当天晚上12点停产。 自8月10日起，该矿山采矿端就不开展工作了，且短期内没有复产计划。 据预测，该矿产量约占全球开采量的3%。分析指出，对于已被供应过剩困扰逾两年的锂行业而言，供 应链中这一重要环节的停产反而将带来利好。 8月8日，碳酸锂期货主力合约暴涨，报收76960元/吨。 有券商指出，此次停产带来了预期的变化，预计现货先上涨同时配合厂商惜售现象，市场将会形成期现 共振式上行。 国家统计局：7月份核心CPI同比持续回升 PPI环比降幅收窄 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年7月份CPI和PPI数据时表示，7月份，扩内需政策效应持 续显现，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.4%，同比持平，扣除食品和能源价 格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅连续3个月扩大。受季节性因素叠加国际贸易环境不确定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has surpassed 2 trillion yuan, returning to a 10-year high, but under a different market context compared to the 2015 bull market [1][3] Group 1: Market Context - The current increase in margin trading balance reflects an improved market risk appetite, indicating a potential continuation of a slow bull market in A-shares [3][8] - The current environment is characterized by economic structural optimization, strict regulation, and increasingly mature investors, marking a shift towards a more stable and rational development phase for the A-share market [3][8] Group 2: Margin Trading Data - As of August 5, the margin trading balance reached 20,003 billion yuan, accounting for 2.3% of the A-share market's circulating market value and 10.2% of trading volume [8] - The top margin trading stocks include Oriental Fortune with 23.235 billion yuan, followed by China Ping An with 21.852 billion yuan, and other notable companies like Kweichow Moutai and BYD also feature prominently [4] Group 3: Investor Behavior Changes - Over the past decade, investor behavior has significantly changed, with a more diversified and less homogenous approach to trading compared to the concentrated investments in financial stocks seen in 2015 [6][7] - The number of margin trading stocks has increased from around 900 to 4,150, allowing for a broader selection and more balanced capital flow across various sectors, including technology and renewable energy [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a slow bull trend, supported by steady economic growth and improving corporate profitability, with a focus on sectors like TMT, cyclical stocks, and consumer goods [8] - The current liquidity is ample, and the risk appetite has improved, which is likely to drive the A-share market forward [8]

每经AI快讯，华西证券指出，股市流动性仍维持充裕，有利于A股慢牛行情纵深演绎。与去年"924"行 情不同，本轮"623"以来的A股"轮动上涨、低位补涨"的特征更明显，赚钱效应的持续性更好，有利于吸 引场外资金入市。截至最新，A股融资余额上行至2万亿附近，融资余额占流通市值比例为2.3%，位于 今年以来中位数水平。这也反映出本轮行情中增量资金来源较为广泛，除了融资资金以外，公募、私募 机构的参与度也有提升。 ...

沪指在3600点附近的反复争夺体现了多空双方的激烈博弈。指数连续多日站稳3500点上方，显示出较强的支撑力度。市场资金呈现结构性流入特征，券商 ETF基金近4日持续获得资金布局，累计净申购金额达1924万元。 上交所数据显示，今年7月A股新开户数达到196.36万户，环比增长近两成，同比增长逾七成。今年前7个月，A股新开户数合计已达1456.13万户，同比增长 36.88%。新增投资者的持续涌入为市场提供了增量资金支撑。 市场做多情绪持续升温，赚钱效应逐步扩散。个股层面，涨少跌多的格局仍在延续，结构性轮动特征明显。权重板块分化加剧，银行、券商等金融股成为指 数上涨的主要推动力。科技成长板块也开始发力，创业板指当日上涨0.39%。 多家券商机构对后市保持乐观态度，普遍认为慢牛格局有望延续。市场风险偏好持续修复，增量流动性为行情提供了坚实基础。当前A股已具备开启全面慢 牛的基本条件，经济和盈利基本面持续处于修复趋势。 券商研究团队指出，本轮行情的核心驱动力来自基本面改善与资金面共振。今年高增长行业占比大幅抬升，景气边际改善的上市公司数量占比升至历史新 高。市场对于景气边际改善的个股给予了更积极的定价。 机构普遍预 ...

8月4日，上交所发布最新开户数据，今年7月A股新开户196.36万户，较今年6月的新开户数增长近两成，同比增长超七成。其中，个人投资者开户195.4万 户，机构投资者开户0.96万户。截至7月，2025年已累计新开1456万户。 招商证券研报称，8月中上旬，市场可能会呈现震荡格局，在中下旬回归上行趋势，并可能创新高。从中期角度看，半年报有望确认上市公司整体自由现 金流改善的逻辑，强化重估A股的逻辑。 中国银河研报分析称，8月份中报集中披露期，市场或将处于局部热点轮动行情之中，把握业绩确定性较强的配置机会。中长期来看，市场向好趋势不 改。在"十五五"发展新蓝图下，市场将聚焦更长期视角下的经济结构转型和产业趋势向好。 （文章来源：广州日报） | 日期 | 总数 | A 股 | B 股 | 基金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.01 | 177.37 | 157.00 | 0.04 | 20.33 | | 2025.02 | 313.77 | 283.59 | 0.04 | 30.14 | | 2025.03 | 348.53 | 306.55 | 0.05 | 4 ...

文｜夏凡捷 李家俊 上周后两个交易日，A股出现调整，这是连涨之后市场止盈压力和预期变化的共振。主要指数来看，小微盘表现相对较好，沪深300和上证50 领跌。事实上自6月以来市场情绪不断升温，收复4/7单日-7.3%的缺口后，上证指数继续上涨8%，最近两周全A日均成交额超过1.8万亿。一方 面市场连续上涨后出现一定的止盈压力，另一方面近期内外部环境也使得市场预期发生一系列变化，导致此次调整的出现。 变化1：对增量政策和顺周期的预期降温。7月政治局会议整体未部署增量政策，更多强调宏观政策持续发力且注重"落细"。7月PMI数据显示 需求端指数的滑落程度更大，内需放缓幅度大于外需。供给侧做文章需要配合需求侧政策，"反内卷"涨价的底气和持续性有待观察。 变化2：对美联储降息节奏不确定性的预期升温。美联储7月FOMC会议按兵不动，鲍威尔表态偏鹰，仍然强调对关税导致通胀的担忧，以及 劳动市场的韧性。美国8/1日公布的7月非农数据爆冷，并对5-6月数据进行了罕见大幅下修。市场对9月FOMC会议降息的预期概率从63%一度 降至38%，非农数据发布后飙升至80%。 变化3：对中美关系改善的预期降温。中美经贸会谈将前期"暂停键"如 ...

Group 1 - The overall consensus among brokerage strategies indicates that the short-term index pullback is not a concern, and the "slow bull market" trend remains unchanged [1][3] - The three core logic supporting the previous market rally—policy bottom-line thinking, emergence of new growth drivers, and incremental capital inflow—have not changed [1][3] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has reignited, and domestic macro and micro liquidity remains relatively abundant, which is favorable for the continuation of the A-share slow bull trend [1][3] Group 2 - In the context of economic cycle assets, it is advisable to allocate to sectors that are less sensitive to short-term data, such as brokerage, insurance, financial IT, and real estate [2][3] - The most promising opportunities in the second half of the year are seen in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, particularly in domestic computing power, which faced delays in Q2 but is expected to recover in Q3 [2][3] - Historical data suggests that in liquidity-driven markets, leading sectors tend to be concentrated rather than rotating between high and low performers, indicating a preference for high consensus stocks [2][3] Group 3 - Concerns about the impact of U.S. stock market adjustments on A-shares are noted, with historical data indicating that A-shares are less affected if they are in the early stages of a bull market [4] - The market is expected to experience slight fluctuations during the policy expectation gap and the concentrated disclosure of mid-year reports in August, but the overall bullish trend is anticipated to remain intact [4][5] - The focus on structural opportunities is emphasized, with a long-term positive outlook on the market driven by economic structural transformation and industry trends [4][5] Group 4 - The macro policy is expected to continue to exert force, with an emphasis on implementing existing policies effectively rather than relying on large-scale new stimulus measures [5] - The capital market's role in the national strategic framework is being upgraded, focusing on long-term competitiveness and stability [5]