来源：滚动播报 交易员们正在集中押注，美联储新主席的任命以及延迟的经济数据在本月的发布将支持总统唐纳德·特 朗普的降息呼声。在美国期货市场，与担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)挂钩的短期利率曲线结构的需求正在 增加，其密切反映市场对美联储利率决策结果的预期。这些押注反映出，在主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔明年5月 任期结束后，货币政策宽松步伐可能加快。明年6月17日的声明将是新任美联储主席上任后的首次公开 表态。自白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特成为接替鲍威尔的热门人选后，市场开始布局新仓位。 特朗普周二在内阁会议上称，美联储主席的角逐已"缩小到一人"，并称哈塞特为"潜在的美联储主席"。 他表示将在明年初宣布最终决定。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent bullish trend in the U.S. stock market is facing warnings from analysts, indicating potential risks of a market correction by the end of December, with the S&P 500 index possibly declining by 5% from its peak [1][3][4]. Market Sentiment and Indicators - Ed Yardeni, a prominent analyst, highlighted that the bullish sentiment among investors has reached extreme levels, with the ratio of bulls to bears rising to 4.27, surpassing the critical threshold of 4.00, which historically signals excessive optimism [4]. - The S&P 500 index has surged by 37% since early April, marking one of the longest bullish runs since 1950, with similar patterns occurring only five times in the past [4]. - The Nasdaq 100 index is trading 17% above its 200-day moving average, indicating a significant price gap that suggests the current rally may be overextended [5]. Liquidity Concerns - The U.S. financial system is showing signs of liquidity stress, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) rising by 18 basis points to 4.22%, the largest single-day increase in a year [7][8]. - The usage of the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) reached a historical high of $50.35 billion, indicating increasing reliance on liquidity support tools [7][8]. - The liquidity crisis is exacerbated by the U.S. government shutdown, which has drained market liquidity significantly, with the Treasury's cash balance increasing from $300 billion to $1 trillion over three months [8]. Potential Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that if the government reopens, it could lead to a rapid normalization of the repo market and a rebound in risk assets, as the Treasury would inject billions back into the market [9]. - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup anticipate that the government shutdown may end within two weeks, potentially leading to a significant influx of cash into the market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a warning from Ed Yardeni, a prominent Wall Street analyst, indicating that the extreme bullish sentiment in the U.S. stock market may signal a potential downturn, with the S&P 500 index expected to decline by 5% by the end of December [2][4]. Market Sentiment and Indicators - Ed Yardeni's warning comes as the S&P 500 index has risen 37% since early April, marking one of the longest bullish runs since 1950, with the current bullish-to-bearish ratio reaching 4.27, indicating excessive optimism [4][5]. - The Nasdaq 100 index is also trading 17% above its 200-day moving average, suggesting a potential overextension in the market [5]. - A significant number of stocks are declining even as the S&P 500 rises, indicating a weakening market breadth [6]. Liquidity Concerns - The U.S. financial system is showing signs of liquidity stress, with the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) rising 18 basis points to 4.22%, the largest increase in a year [2][7]. - The usage of the Federal Reserve's standing repo facility (SRF) reached a historical high, indicating increasing liquidity pressures [7][8]. - The liquidity crisis is exacerbated by the U.S. government shutdown, which has drained approximately $700 billion from the market, creating a tightening effect similar to multiple rate hikes [8]. Potential Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that if the government reopens, it could lead to a significant influx of cash into the market, potentially resulting in a rebound for risk assets [8]. - The article notes that the fate of capital markets may hinge on political decisions regarding the government shutdown, with expectations that a resolution could lead to a rapid normalization of the repo market [8].

Group 1 - A significant increase in the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) has been observed, rising from 4.42% to 4.51%, marking the largest increase since December 31 of the previous year [1][3] - The gap between SOFR and the actual federal funds rate has widened to 18 basis points, the largest difference since December 26 of the previous year, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate by policymakers [3] - The overnight financing rate among banks and asset management companies has been steadily increasing due to the U.S. Treasury expanding its cash reserves while the Federal Reserve is reducing its balance sheet [3] Group 2 - The repo rate has exceeded the Federal Reserve's target range for overnight lending rates since early September and has remained elevated [4] - Market participants anticipate a brief period of calm before increased volatility as two long-term Cash Management Bills, totaling a net supply of $50 billion, are set to mature [4] - Significant cash inflows from government-sponsored enterprises are expected in the coming days, contributing to market liquidity [4]