Core Viewpoint - The recent bullish trend in the U.S. stock market is facing warnings from analysts, indicating potential risks of a market correction by the end of December, with the S&P 500 index possibly declining by 5% from its peak [1][3][4]. Market Sentiment and Indicators - Ed Yardeni, a prominent analyst, highlighted that the bullish sentiment among investors has reached extreme levels, with the ratio of bulls to bears rising to 4.27, surpassing the critical threshold of 4.00, which historically signals excessive optimism [4]. - The S&P 500 index has surged by 37% since early April, marking one of the longest bullish runs since 1950, with similar patterns occurring only five times in the past [4]. - The Nasdaq 100 index is trading 17% above its 200-day moving average, indicating a significant price gap that suggests the current rally may be overextended [5]. Liquidity Concerns - The U.S. financial system is showing signs of liquidity stress, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) rising by 18 basis points to 4.22%, the largest single-day increase in a year [7][8]. - The usage of the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) reached a historical high of $50.35 billion, indicating increasing reliance on liquidity support tools [7][8]. - The liquidity crisis is exacerbated by the U.S. government shutdown, which has drained market liquidity significantly, with the Treasury's cash balance increasing from $300 billion to $1 trillion over three months [8]. Potential Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that if the government reopens, it could lead to a rapid normalization of the repo market and a rebound in risk assets, as the Treasury would inject billions back into the market [9]. - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup anticipate that the government shutdown may end within two weeks, potentially leading to a significant influx of cash into the market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a warning from Ed Yardeni, a prominent Wall Street analyst, indicating that the extreme bullish sentiment in the U.S. stock market may signal a potential downturn, with the S&P 500 index expected to decline by 5% by the end of December [2][4]. Market Sentiment and Indicators - Ed Yardeni's warning comes as the S&P 500 index has risen 37% since early April, marking one of the longest bullish runs since 1950, with the current bullish-to-bearish ratio reaching 4.27, indicating excessive optimism [4][5]. - The Nasdaq 100 index is also trading 17% above its 200-day moving average, suggesting a potential overextension in the market [5]. - A significant number of stocks are declining even as the S&P 500 rises, indicating a weakening market breadth [6]. Liquidity Concerns - The U.S. financial system is showing signs of liquidity stress, with the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) rising 18 basis points to 4.22%, the largest increase in a year [2][7]. - The usage of the Federal Reserve's standing repo facility (SRF) reached a historical high, indicating increasing liquidity pressures [7][8]. - The liquidity crisis is exacerbated by the U.S. government shutdown, which has drained approximately $700 billion from the market, creating a tightening effect similar to multiple rate hikes [8]. Potential Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that if the government reopens, it could lead to a significant influx of cash into the market, potentially resulting in a rebound for risk assets [8]. - The article notes that the fate of capital markets may hinge on political decisions regarding the government shutdown, with expectations that a resolution could lead to a rapid normalization of the repo market [8].

智通财经APP获悉，本周，美国金融体系的一项关键利率大幅上升，超过了美联储设定的目标区间。这 一现象的出现是由于流动性持续减少，而这种流动性减少的情况是由美国国债拍卖结算以及季度企业纳 税日期临近所导致的。根据纽约联储周二发布的最新数据，担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)自上一交易日的 4.42% 上涨至 9 月 15 日的 4.51%，创下自去年12月31日以来该利率的最大涨幅，这一短期贷款基准利 率与回购协议市场活动相关。 这一上升使得 SOFR 与实际联邦基金利率之间的差距扩大到了 18 个基点——这是自去年12月26日以来 的最大差距;预计政策制定者将于周三将联邦基金利率下调25个基点。该利率比美联储向存放在中央银 行的准备金所支付的利率高出 11 个基点——目前该利率为 4.40%。 银行及资产管理公司之间用于相互借贷的隔夜融资利率一直在稳步上升，因为美国财政部正在扩充其现 金储备，而美联储则在缩减其资产负债表规模。与此同时，美联储的一项隔夜贷款机制(该机制长期以 来被视为衡量资金市场流动性过剩程度的一个指标)的使用量已降至四年来的最低水平。 9月初，回购利率超过了美联储规定的隔夜贷款利率目标区间，并且此 ...