Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, suggesting a focus on pre-festival promotions as a key opportunity for growth [3][10]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has underperformed the market recently, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 3.8% from January 23 to January 30, 2026, which is worse than the overall market performance [4][5]. - Recent earnings forecasts from companies like Shanghai Jahwa, Ruya Chen, and Huaxi Biological indicate a recovery in profitability, highlighting the sector's high growth potential [10][11]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to drive significant promotional activities, particularly on platforms like Tmall and Douyin, which could enhance sales for domestic brands [10][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown a decline, with the Shenwan Cosmetics Index down 3.6% and the Shenwan Personal Care Index down 4.6%, both underperforming the Shenwan A Index [4][5]. - The top-performing stocks in the sector include Qingdao Kingway (+7.2%) and Beijia Clean (+0.1%), while the worst performers include Lafang Jiahua (-18.7%) and Shanghai Jahwa (-10.9%) [6]. Earnings Forecasts - Companies like Ruya Chen expect a net profit of 176 to 200 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 66.61% to 89.33% [4]. - Shanghai Jahwa anticipates a turnaround with a projected net profit of 240 to 290 million yuan for 2025, while Huaxi Biological expects a net profit of 270 to 320 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 54.93% to 83.63% [4][10]. Market Trends - The retail sales of cosmetics in 2025 are projected to grow by 5.1%, with a notable increase in Q4 driven by promotional events like Double Eleven [11][19]. - The report highlights the strong performance of domestic brands, with significant growth in online sales channels, particularly on Douyin [12][29]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on brands with strong growth in GMV such as Mao Ge Ping, Shangmei Co., and Shanghai Jahwa, as well as companies in the medical beauty sector like Aimeike and Langzi Co. [14][30]. - The report also suggests monitoring e-commerce operations and self-owned brands like Ruya Chen and Qingmu Technology for potential high growth [14][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry [2]. Core Views - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown stronger performance than the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 2.5% from October 10 to October 17, 2025, which is better than the overall market performance [4][5]. - The Tmall Double 11 event has seen significant success for domestic brands, with brands like Maogeping experiencing high demand and sold-out products [10]. - The overall performance for Q3 2025 is expected to meet expectations, with a continued upward trend into Q4, driven by promotional events [11][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector outperformed the market during the specified period, with the Shenwan Cosmetics Index down by 1.1%, which is 2.3 percentage points better than the Shenwan A Index [4][5]. - Key stocks in the sector included Jiaheng Jiahua (+35.0%), Yiyi Co. (+18.6%), and Yanjing Co. (+15.6%) [6]. Market Trends - The Tmall Double 11 event on October 15 attracted over 10 million viewers, with domestic brands like Maogeping experiencing supply shortages due to high demand [10]. - The overall sales performance is expected to improve in the coming weeks, particularly with the upcoming Douyin Double 11 event [10]. Q3 Performance Outlook - The demand for cosmetics remains robust, with retail sales growth in July and August outpacing the overall market [11]. - The total retail sales of cosmetics for the first eight months of 2025 reached 291.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [11]. - Domestic brands are leveraging online channels effectively, with Han Shu achieving over 2 billion yuan in GMV in Q3 [12]. Company Highlights - Han Shu announced a global partnership with Wang Jiaer, enhancing its international presence and brand recognition [19][22]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong channel and brand matrices, such as Maogeping, Shanghai Jahwa, and Up Beauty [14]. E-commerce Data - The report highlights significant growth in e-commerce sales for various brands, with Han Shu achieving a 37% increase in GMV [15]. - The overall e-commerce landscape for domestic brands is expected to continue thriving, supported by promotional events and strategic partnerships [15][18]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the Chinese skincare market is projected to reach 271.2 billion yuan in 2024, despite a slight decline in growth [26]. - Domestic brands are increasingly capturing market share, with a notable presence in the top ten rankings [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in companies with strong growth potential and robust product pipelines, particularly in the cosmetics and medical beauty sectors [14]. - Specific recommendations include Maogeping, Up Beauty, and Shanghai Jahwa for cosmetics, and Aimeike for medical beauty [14].