作者 | 基德 编辑 | Shadow 2025年12月1日，本应是一年中全球电商心跳最强劲的时刻。 当数百万卖家屏息等待网一（Cyber Monday）流量洪峰来临时，他们等来的却是一场数字噩梦，Shopify，全球独立站的中央供血系统，在这一秒突然心 脏骤停。demandsage数据显示，Shopify 全球拥有超过554万活跃商店，日活跃用户约588 万。 后台登录全线瘫痪，POS系统停止响应，线下门店无法结账……"认证流程异常"，官方的轻描淡写，与卖家后台屏幕上刺眼的红色警报形成残酷的对比。 修复时间从几分钟拖到几小时，每一分钟的流逝，都在蒸发数百万美元的交易机会。 而早在旺季之前，行业已笼罩在一种微妙的氛围里，Adobe预测线上零售将迎两位数增长，投行也看好降息与健康库存带来的需求回暖。然而，当黑五真 正来临，商家端，无论是复购表现、客单价水平，还是广告成本与GMV增速，都未能燃起预期的热度。 今年的黑五，没有狂欢，整个行业都弥漫着焦虑与不确定。 今年黑五的最大意外，无疑是Shopify的全球性系统故障。 对于独立站卖家而言，黑五不仅是全年最大的一次爆发窗口，更是提前数月做规划、备货、广告预算校准、 ...

Core Insights - The recent Double 11 event on Douyin e-commerce saw significant sales growth, with 67,000 brands doubling their sales year-on-year and 520,000 merchants achieving the same in live-streaming sales, highlighting the platform's effectiveness in driving business for merchants [1] - The upcoming "2025 Douyin Mall Year-End Carnival" set to start on December 3 is positioned as a critical opportunity for merchants to achieve annual targets and explore new growth avenues [1] - The event will feature a comprehensive promotional strategy, including various discount mechanisms and marketing support to enhance merchant sales during the peak shopping season [2][9] Promotional Strategies - The event will implement direct discount strategies such as "instant discounts" and "single-item price reductions" to enhance consumer perception of value and stimulate purchasing behavior [2] - Douyin will continue to provide consumer vouchers to amplify discounts, allowing merchants to increase their promotional effectiveness across all product categories [2] Content and Exposure - Continuous content output is emphasized to enhance product visibility, with initiatives like "Super Value Team" and "Super Category & Mega Store Discounts" designed to encourage influencers and merchants to maintain live broadcasts during the event [3] - The platform will offer systematic support for merchants, from search traffic generation to conversion, ensuring a comprehensive approach to driving sales [5] Marketing Channels - The "Super Value Purchase" channel will provide additional product subsidies and prime placement for popular brands, while the "Flash Sale" channel will target high-frequency consumer brands to facilitate rapid sales growth [7] - Diverse marketing strategies will be introduced to cater to various merchant needs, including "Category & New Launch" initiatives and tailored support for brands at different development stages [9][10] Brand-Specific Initiatives - The event will feature specific strategies for brands, such as "Big Brand Discounts" for leading brands and "Marketing IP" initiatives to enhance visibility and sales [11] - The "Qianchuan" initiative will support brands in expanding their reach and improving sales efficiency through targeted marketing efforts [13] Conclusion - The ongoing evolution of the promotional ecosystem on Douyin is expected to provide merchants with greater certainty in achieving sales growth during the year-end event, emphasizing the importance of early preparation and strategic alignment with platform initiatives [19]

Core Insights - The report from GF Securities indicates significant growth in GMV for both comprehensive e-commerce and live-streaming e-commerce platforms during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival, with total sales expected to reach 1.695 trillion yuan, a 14.2% increase from the previous year [1] - The top ten categories in comprehensive e-commerce sales include home appliances, mobile digital products, clothing, personal care and beauty, among others, with clothing and footwear remaining crucial sales channels [1] Group 1: E-commerce Performance - The total sales during the 2025 Double Eleven period (October 7 to November 11) are projected to be 1.695 trillion yuan, up from 1.4418 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 14.2% year-on-year growth [1] - Comprehensive e-commerce platforms, including Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin, are expected to generate sales of 1.6191 trillion yuan, compared to 1.1093 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 12.3% increase [1] - The top ten sales categories in comprehensive e-commerce include home appliances, mobile digital products, clothing, personal care and beauty, footwear, furniture, food and beverages, office supplies, baby products, and sports and outdoor items [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - In the Tmall channel, the competition in the clothing and home textile sectors remains stable, with slight changes in the rankings of the top ten brands across various sub-sectors [2] - For men's clothing, Uniqlo retains the top position, while in women's clothing, Uniqlo also ranks first, showing a slight increase in its position [2] - The overlap of top brands between Tmall and Douyin is low, with only a few brands appearing in the top ten of both platforms, indicating a distinct competitive landscape [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Companies are advised to focus on leading firms in sub-sectors that rank high during the Double Eleven event, as online retail remains a vital channel for clothing and home textiles [4] - Attention should be given to home textile companies that exceed expectations in their Q3 performance [4] - Companies involved in high-demand IP licensing, cultural creativity, high-end crafts, and discount retail in clothing and footwear are recommended for investment [4]

Group 1 - The core point of this year's Double Eleven shopping festival is that it has become the longest in history, lasting 159 days, which is 4 days longer than last year, with major platforms averaging over 30 days of promotion [2][3] - During this year's Double Eleven, the total sales reached approximately 1.70 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, while the comprehensive e-commerce transaction volume grew by 12.3% [3][4] - The average daily sales during this year's Double Eleven were 462.6 billion yuan, indicating an 11% year-on-year decline, suggesting that the event has become less effective in stimulating consumer interest [4][8] Group 2 - The stagnation in the e-commerce market has led platforms to adopt strategies that may not be sustainable, as they attempt to maintain the appearance of growth [5] - The changing financial reporting metrics of major platforms, such as the shift from GMV to CMR and active buyer metrics, complicates the evaluation of their performance [7][8] - The lack of transparency regarding GMV growth in financial reports raises concerns about the competitive position of platforms like Taobao and Tmall [8][9] Group 3 - In response to limited GMV growth, platforms are increasing their take rates, which places additional financial pressure on merchants [9][10] - The introduction of new fees, such as a 0.6% technical service fee and full-site promotion costs, is aimed at increasing revenue from merchants [10][11] - Merchants are facing a complex fee structure that significantly reduces their profit margins, leading to dissatisfaction and potential exits from the platform [14][15][18] Group 4 - Other platforms, such as Xiaohongshu and Pinduoduo, are implementing measures to reduce costs for merchants, contrasting with Taobao's approach [26][27] - Alibaba's significant investments in AI and instant retail are driving the need for higher fees from merchants to support these initiatives [28][29][30] - The current strategy of increasing fees on merchants may lead to a long-term decline in merchant satisfaction and retention [30][31]

Investment Rating - The beauty and personal care industry is rated as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The overall market shows stable growth, with impressive performance in instant retail during the Double Eleven shopping festival, achieving a total e-commerce sales of 1,695 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2% [2] - The beauty sector outperformed the overall e-commerce market, with skincare sales reaching 991 billion yuan and fragrance and makeup sales at 334 billion yuan, both showing double-digit growth [3] - Domestic brands are gaining strength, with notable performances from brands like Proya and Han Shu, while international luxury brands are also recovering [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Double Eleven shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 1,695 billion yuan, with a 14.2% year-on-year growth. Instant retail sales reached 67 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 138.4% [2] Beauty Sector Performance - The beauty and skincare sales during Double Eleven reached 991 billion yuan, with fragrance and makeup sales at 334 billion yuan, both exceeding the overall market growth rate [3] Brand Analysis - On Tmall, domestic brands occupy five spots in the top 20 beauty brands, with Proya maintaining the top position. International brands like L'Oréal and Estée Lauder also showed improvements [4] - On Douyin, domestic brands hold five spots in the top 10 beauty brands, with Han Shu and Proya leading the rankings [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brands with strong growth and performance certainty, such as MaoGeping and Marubi. Brands showing significant improvement include Shuiyang and Shanghai Jahwa, while companies with core technology and clear long-term trends like Juzibio are also recommended [6]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a decline today, with the consumer sector facing a second consecutive day of pullback, as the Consumer ETF (159928) fell by 0.59% with a total trading volume exceeding 650 million yuan [1] - The Consumer ETF (159928) saw a net inflow of over 640 million yuan in the past five days, and as of November 14, its latest scale surpassed 22 billion yuan, leading its peers significantly [1] ETF Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer 50 ETF (159268) also declined by 0.3%, with a total trading volume exceeding 42 million yuan, and it has attracted over 1 billion yuan in the last 20 days, maintaining a leading position among similar funds [4] Valuation Insights - The Consumer ETF (159928) has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 20.42 as of November 14, which is at the 6.75% percentile of the past decade, indicating it is cheaper than 93% of the historical time frame, suggesting high valuation attractiveness [3] Consumer Spending Trends - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year to 4.6 trillion yuan, slightly above the consensus expectation of 2.7%, with growth impacted mainly by a slowdown in automotive and home appliance sales [7] - The holiday economy from the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival contributed to a recovery in offline consumption, with restaurant income and retail sales increasing by 3.8% and 2.8% year-on-year, respectively [8] Sector Performance - The demand for gold and silver jewelry surged by 37.6% year-on-year in October, driven by record-high international gold prices, which enhanced the investment appeal of these products [9] - The performance of various consumer categories showed structural differentiation, with furniture and communication equipment seeing significant growth, while home appliances faced a decline [9] Future Outlook - The market demand is expected to continue its recovery, with policies aimed at boosting consumption and expanding the supply of quality consumer goods and services [10] - Investment recommendations include focusing on sectors benefiting from holiday economies, domestic brands with competitive pricing, and durable goods with high export ratios and dividend characteristics [10][11]

Core Insights - Tmall's "Double 11" event this year achieved its best performance in four years, with nearly 600 brands surpassing 100 million yuan in sales [2][3] - The event was extended to November 14, making it the longest and earliest "Double 11" in history, with significant participation from competitors like Douyin and JD [2][3] Sales Performance - Tmall reported that 34,091 brands saw sales double year-on-year, while 18,048 brands experienced over threefold growth, and 13,081 brands saw more than fivefold increases compared to last year [2] - Major brands such as Apple, Haier, and Xiaomi each exceeded 1 billion yuan in sales during the event [2] New Consumption Models - Tmall introduced new shopping scenarios, including Taobao Flash Sale and Fliggy, which contributed to a significant increase in retail orders and daily transactions [3] - Taobao Flash Sale saw a year-on-year order growth of over 200%, while Tmall's brand instant retail daily orders increased by 198% compared to September [3] Travel Sector Growth - The travel sector also experienced robust growth, with transaction user numbers increasing by over 20% during "Double 11," and 88VIP transaction users growing by approximately 30% [3] - The GMV for travel-related products saw a year-on-year increase of over 30%, with specific examples like Xinjiang tourism reaching over 10 million yuan in sales [5] Competitive Landscape - JD reported record high sales during "Double 11," with a 40% increase in the number of users placing orders and nearly 60% growth in order volume [6] - Douyin's report indicated that 67,000 brands doubled their sales, and over 100,000 merchants saw significant growth in live-streaming sales [6] International Expansion - Tmall invested 1 billion yuan in marketing subsidies, launching promotions in 20 countries and regions, while JD also expanded its reach to international markets, achieving over 100% growth in both sales and order volume [7] Consumer Experience Challenges - Despite the growth, consumers expressed frustration over the complexity of discounts and pricing strategies, which varied significantly across platforms and users [8] - The competitive environment has led to concerns among brands and merchants regarding pricing strategies and profitability, as well as challenges faced by live-streaming hosts [7][8]

Group 1 - Tmall reported its best growth in four years for the 2025 Double 11 event, with nearly 600 brands achieving over 100 million in sales [1] - 34,091 brands saw year-on-year growth, with 18,048 brands growing over three times and 13,081 brands growing over five times compared to last year [1] - Major brands like Apple, Haier, and Xiaomi each surpassed 1 billion in sales during the event [1] Group 2 - JD.com announced a record high in sales for its 11.11 event, with a 40% increase in the number of users placing orders and nearly 60% growth in order volume [1] - The mobile phone category saw over four times growth in sales for new products, with AI-related products experiencing significant increases, such as a 200% rise in AI tablet sales [1] - Meituan's flash sales reported that nearly 400 categories doubled their transaction volume, with an average order value increasing by nearly 30% during the promotion [1] Group 3 - Douyin's e-commerce data indicated that 67,000 brands achieved year-on-year sales growth during the 2025 Double 11, with over 100,000 merchants doubling their sales through live streaming [1] - Kuaishou's e-commerce data showed that the number of high-GMV single products increased by over 77% year-on-year, and search GMV grew by over 33% [2] - Merchants with sales exceeding 10 million experienced double-digit growth, reflecting a surge in consumer demand on the platform [2]

Group 1 - The "6·18" shopping festival has been extended, with pre-sales starting on May 13 and actual sales running from May 16 to May 26 for Tmall and from May 31 for JD [2][3] - This year, both Tmall and JD are adopting aggressive promotional strategies, including various discount coupons and cash subsidies to attract consumers [3][9] - Platforms are increasingly collaborating with external traffic sources, such as Xiaohongshu, to enhance user engagement and drive sales [5][6] Group 2 - JD is partnering with the popular supermarket brand Pang Donglai to establish a supply chain base, which is expected to enhance logistics and product availability during the "6·18" period [7][8] - Both Tmall and JD are investing heavily in live streaming and content marketing to boost user engagement, with significant cash and traffic incentives planned [9][10] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou also participating in the "6·18" promotions, offering substantial cash subsidies and traffic resources [4][9]

Summary of Tmall Double 11 Pet Industry Conference Industry Overview - The pet food sales on Tmall are projected to reach between 20 billion to 24 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of approximately 23%-24% [10][1] - JD.com is expected to achieve sales of 8 billion to 9 billion yuan, while Pinduoduo may exceed 10 billion yuan [10][1] - Pinduoduo has shown rapid growth from 2 billion yuan in 2020 to 6.1 billion yuan in 2023, but its growth rate has slowed in recent years [10][1] Key Insights and Arguments - Tmall's Double 11 pet category growth is supported by platform incentives, increased UV traffic, AI technology applications, and rising Tmall traffic [1][5] - The average daily active users (DAU) on the platform reached 670 million, with flash sales driving 140 million DAU [6][1] - The average transaction value in the pet category increased by approximately 5-6 percentage points [6][1] - Sales figures during Double 11 included: - Cat food: 3.188 billion yuan, up 36.9% - Dog food: 2.082 billion yuan, up 24.59% - Cat snacks: 652 million yuan, up 47.8% - Dog snacks: 267 million yuan, up 41.26% [7][1] Brand Performance - Domestic pet brands have a higher concentration than foreign brands, with notable performances from brands like Xianlang, Maisidi, and Lanshi [1][9] - Xianlang achieved sales of 353 million yuan, with a promotional ROI of 1:12 and a quarterly repurchase rate of 64% [9][1] - Other brands like Maisidi and Lanshi also showed significant growth, with ROIs higher than those in the household and beauty sectors by 5-6 percentage points [9][1] Financial Metrics - Brand gross margins on Tmall are approximately 50%-60%, with e-commerce platform costs accounting for about 8.5% [20][1] - The cost structure includes advertising expenses, commissions, and technical service fees [20][1] - Leading brands like Maifudi and Royal have lower cost ratios, around 6%-8% [20][1] Market Dynamics - The pet food category is a key focus for Tmall, with increased support leading to a 16% increase in category coupons [33][1] - The overall GMV for Tmall during Double 11 was 1,093.48 billion yuan, with pet food GMV at 625.5 million yuan, up 34.19% [2][1] - The pet food market is characterized by a dual growth in quantity and price, particularly in the cat food segment [18][1] Consumer Behavior - There is a trend towards purchasing larger or higher-value products, with cat product sales volume increasing by 13% and prices rising by 7% [37][1] - Dog product sales are expected to increase by 3%, with actual volume growth around 5% and a price increase of 10% [37][1] Competitive Landscape - Tmall's market share has reached parity with Taobao, with Tmall's volume now equal to that of Taobao [19][1] - Different brands employ varied strategies for off-platform promotion, impacting their sales performance [21][1] Conclusion - The pet food market on Tmall is experiencing robust growth driven by strategic platform support, consumer trends towards premium products, and effective brand marketing strategies. The competitive landscape is shifting, with domestic brands gaining a stronger foothold against foreign competitors.