[ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 09 月 02 日 证券研究报告•2025 半年报点评 潍柴动力（000338）汽车 目标价：——元（6 个月） 买入 （维持） 当前价：14.81 元 分红比例提高至 57%，海外产业势头强劲 | 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（亿元） | 2156.91 | 2716.13 | 3010.11 | 3344.05 | | 增长率 | 0.81% | 25.93% | 10.82% | 11.09% | | 归属母公司净利润（亿元） | 114.03 | 127.15 | 150.78 | 169.56 | | 增长率 | 26.51% | 11.50% | 18.59% | 12.46% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 1.31 | 1.46 | 1.73 | 1.95 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 11.71% | 9.80% | 10.56% | 10.79% | | PE | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes technological innovation and structural adjustment as core drivers, seizing opportunities in overseas markets, high value-added sectors, and the transition to new energy, resulting in stable operational performance [1][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1131.5 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 56.4 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 22.2% [6][1]. - The company proposed a cash dividend of 3.58 yuan per 10 shares, increasing the dividend payout ratio to 57%, with total cash dividends exceeding 19 billion yuan since 2021 [7][1]. Strategic Business Growth - The company reported significant growth in strategic business areas, with high-end M series large-bore engines sales exceeding 5000 units, a 41% increase year-on-year, and data center engine sales up 491% [14][3]. - New energy power technology revenue reached 1.21 billion yuan, a 37% increase, while power battery sales reached 2.3 GWh, up 91% [3][14]. International Expansion - The company’s overseas operations showed strong momentum, with operating revenue of 5.5 billion euros and adjusted EBIT of 390 million euros, alongside new orders of 6.21 billion euros, a 22% year-on-year increase [8][20]. Heavy Truck Market Performance - Heavy truck sales reached 73,000 units, a 15% increase, with new energy heavy truck sales skyrocketing by 255% [15][9]. - The company’s market share in the heavy truck sector continues to rise, with exports of 27,000 units [15][9]. Agricultural Equipment Sector - Despite challenges in the global agricultural machinery industry, the company’s agricultural equipment segment achieved operating revenue of 9.86 billion yuan, with export revenue of 1.15 billion yuan [18][17]. - The company maintains a leading market position in tractors and harvesting machinery in China [18]. Future Outlook - The company aims to tackle high-end markets, core new energy technologies, and overseas breakthroughs in the second half of 2025, focusing on expanding gas engine advantages and large-bore engine exports [21].

Core Insights - The company reported a solid performance in the first half of 2025, achieving revenue of 113.15 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.64 billion yuan, while maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of 57% [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The company's leadership in the power system sector was reinforced, with a significant increase in high-end product sales, including a 41% year-on-year growth in the high-end M series large-bore engines, selling over 5,000 units [2] - The company sold 362,000 engines in the first half of 2025, with heavy-duty truck engine sales reaching 125,000 units, showcasing a strong market position [2] - The sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks surged by 255% year-on-year, exceeding 10,000 units, indicating robust momentum in the new energy sector [3] Group 2: Market Expansion - The company’s subsidiary, Shaanxi Heavy Truck, sold 73,000 heavy-duty trucks, a 14.6% increase year-on-year, raising its market share to 13.5% [3] - The company successfully expanded its international market presence, exporting 27,000 heavy-duty trucks [3] - The overseas subsidiary, KION Group, saw a 22.2% increase in new orders, totaling 6.21 billion euros, with the second quarter achieving the highest order level in history [5] Group 3: Agricultural Equipment - Despite challenges in the global agricultural machinery industry, the company’s subsidiary, Weichai Lovol, achieved revenue of 9.86 billion yuan, with export revenue of 1.15 billion yuan [4] - The company maintained the top market share in China for tractors and various harvesting machines, supported by the launch of smart agricultural solutions [4] Group 4: Profitability and Future Outlook - The company’s U.S. subsidiary, PSI, reported a 59% year-on-year revenue growth, reaching 330 million USD, with net profit increasing by 145% to 70 million USD [5] - The company aims to strengthen its position in high-end markets and core technologies in new energy, focusing on expanding its gas engine advantages and large-bore engine exports [5]