在周四亚洲交易时段，日元对美元的走势趋于平稳，暂时止住了此前一日随美元整体回升而出现的回落行情，整体维持在相对狭窄的区间内波动。 从技术层面观察，美元/日元在短周期内上破100小时简单移动平均线，部分技术指标呈现偏积极状态，显示汇价存在继续上探的动能。 短线来看，随着市场对日本央行政策调整预期的变化，日元表现出一定韧性，但交易氛围依然偏谨慎。 但在156.00一线附近，仍需关注是否能够形成有效突破。若该区域上方出现更明确的延续信号，价格可能向157.00附近的前期高点区域靠近，其间156.55- 156.60区间或构成阶段性阻力。 临近重要事件节点，市场参与者普遍降低操作频率，转而等待更为清晰的政策信号。本周的关注焦点集中在周五即将公布的日本央行利率决议及其会后沟通 内容，这些信息被视为评估日元后续波动节奏的重要参考。 围绕日本财政状况的相关讨论，促使部分资金进行结构性调整，客观上放大了汇率在短期内的波动区间。 从整体环境来看，日本利率预期的变化与海外主要经济体利率走势之间存在差异，在相对低收益属性的背景下，日元表现出一定稳定性。同时，全球股市情 绪偏向谨慎，也在一定程度上凸显了日元的避险特征，对其波动起到约 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese yen briefly rose above the 150 mark against the US dollar, rebounding from an eight-month low due to increased global demand for safe-haven assets driven by bad loans at two US banks [1] - The yen's performance on Friday surpassed most other G10 currencies, with a peak increase of 0.4% to 149.90 yen per dollar, marking the highest level since October 6 [1] - The Swiss franc also appreciated, while US currency and bond yields were dragged down by a sell-off in regional bank stocks [1] Group 2 - Christopher Wong, a foreign exchange strategist, noted that the decline in US Treasury yields has contributed to the ongoing drop in the dollar-yen exchange rate amid risk aversion [3] - Political uncertainty has reduced expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this month, although the Bank of Japan's Governor indicated a potential tightening of policy if confidence in economic prospects improves [3] - Mark Cranfield highlighted that during the regional banking crisis, the dollar-yen exchange rate fell approximately 800 points from peak to trough, suggesting a potential drop towards the 146 level this month [3]

Core Viewpoint - The National Australia Bank suggests that the Japanese yen may strengthen against the US dollar, potentially surpassing 140 yen per dollar in the second half of this year as the Bank of Japan normalizes its monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The Japanese yen is expected to appreciate against the US dollar due to changes in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy [1] - The forecast indicates a potential exchange rate of over 140 yen per dollar in the latter half of the year [1]