格隆汇2月17日｜据外媒，前日本央行审议委员安达诚司表示，日本央行很可能会利用4月份可获得的大 量新数据作为加息机会，而不理会市场对3月份可能加息的猜测。安达诚司周一在接受采访时称："3月 加息会带来风险，因为这将基于预期而非信号确认。4月将获得大量数据，用以确认基础通胀的改 善。"安达诚司的观点与市场日益增长的预期一致，即行长植田和男领导的委员会可能会在春季采取行 动——这比大多数经济学家在12月最后一次加息后的预测要早。他表示，尽管有人担心首相高市早苗可 能会阻碍日本央行政策正常化进程，尤其是在上周她以压倒性优势赢得选举后，但她不太可能阻止加 息，因为此类行动可能适得其反。安达诚司称："高市早苗似乎对市场动态变得非常敏感。如果她告诉 日本央行不要加息，潜在的市场反应将是日元贬值。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has failed to provide sustained support for the yen, leading to increased bearish sentiment towards the currency, with predictions of further depreciation against the dollar by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Factors - Analysts from major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and BNP Paribas, predict that the yen could weaken to 160 yen per dollar or lower by the end of 2026 due to persistent factors such as significant US-Japan interest rate differentials, negative real interest rates, and ongoing capital outflows [1][2]. - The yen has seen a slight increase of less than 1% against the dollar this year after four consecutive years of decline, but expectations for a reversal driven by the Bank of Japan's rate hikes and potential Fed rate cuts have not materialized [1][2]. - The return of arbitrage trading, where investors borrow low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies, is creating additional headwinds for the yen [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment remains cautious, with the overnight index swap indicating that the next rate hike by the Bank of Japan is not fully priced in, expected at the earliest in September [2]. - The ongoing high inflation in Japan, which exceeds the Bank of Japan's 2% target, continues to exert pressure on Japanese government bonds [2]. - Japanese retail investors are showing a strong preference for overseas assets, with net purchases through investment trusts hovering around 9.4 trillion yen (approximately 60 billion USD), a ten-year high, which is likely to persist and further suppress the yen [3]. Group 3: Long-term Predictions - Some analysts, including those from Goldman Sachs, believe that the yen may eventually strengthen to 100 yen per dollar over the next decade, although they acknowledge the presence of multiple short-term negative factors [4]. - Concerns about intervention risks are rising as the yen approaches levels that previously prompted official action, but experts suggest that intervention alone may not be sufficient to reverse the yen's downward trend [4][5].

Group 1 - Japan's core wages in September showed stable growth, allowing the Bank of Japan to continue its tightening policy, with nominal wages increasing by 1.9% year-on-year, matching economists' expectations [1][3] - The basic salary also grew at the same rate, while a more stable indicator, which excludes bonuses and overtime, rose by 2.2%, slightly slowing from the previous month [1][3] - Real cash earnings fell by 1.4%, marking the ninth consecutive month of decline, which aligns with analysts' expectations and increases pressure on the government to address inflation's impact on households [1][3] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan views wage trends as a key factor in determining the timing of future interest rate hikes, with the next policy decision scheduled for December 19 [3][4] - The largest labor union, Rengo, is aiming for at least a 5% wage increase in upcoming negotiations, including a 3% rise in basic salary, with confirmation expected by the end of November [4][5] - The current wage negotiations face stronger resistance compared to previous years, influenced by tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, which have affected exporters' ability to raise wages [5] Group 3 - Continuous wage growth is a priority for the government, especially in light of public dissatisfaction over rising living costs and declining real wages, which contributed to the ousting of previous leaders [5] - Japan's core inflation has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for approximately three and a half years, eroding household purchasing power [5] - The government is formulating an economic stimulus plan, expected to be completed this month, which will include measures to alleviate price pressures and support wage growth for small and medium-sized enterprises [5]

Group 1 - The core inflation expectations have been raised, maintaining hopes for the normalization of the Bank of Japan's policies [1] - The market will closely monitor Governor Ueda's press conference for any hints regarding the timing of the next interest rate hike [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tokyo inflation has cooled but remains at a high level, supporting the Bank of Japan's policy normalization [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - Tokyo's core inflation pressure remains high despite government measures to stabilize prices [1] - The recent decline in Tokyo's inflation is not sufficient to alter the Bank of Japan's current policy stance [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current policy and not raise interest rates in the immediate future [1] - The focus is shifting towards the quarterly outlook report and comments on the US-Japan trade agreement [1] - The Bank of Japan is likely to revise its core inflation forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026, excluding energy [1] Group 3: Trade Agreement Implications - The US-Japan tariff agreement is viewed as a negative for the economy, but it may reduce uncertainty, which the central bank could welcome [1] - The decision regarding interest rate hikes remains challenging, but October is still seen as the most likely time for an increase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Australia Bank suggests that the Japanese yen may strengthen against the US dollar, potentially surpassing 140 yen per dollar in the second half of this year as the Bank of Japan normalizes its monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The Japanese yen is expected to appreciate against the US dollar due to changes in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy [1] - The forecast indicates a potential exchange rate of over 140 yen per dollar in the latter half of the year [1]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is trading around 147.00, with a decline of 0.26%, influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan, as the Fed adopts a dovish stance while the BoJ signals normalization [1] - The Japanese yen has shown a strong upward trend, supported by hawkish comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, indicating potential rate hikes if economic conditions improve [1] - The US April CPI year-on-year rate fell to 2.3%, weaker than market expectations, leading to market speculation of two rate cuts by the Fed by 2025, totaling a reduction of 56 basis points [1] Group 2 - Despite a recovery in global trade sentiment, investors still prefer the yen over the dollar as a safe-haven asset amid current geopolitical tensions [2] - From a technical perspective, a recent breakout above the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart supports bullish traders, with potential buying opportunities near the 146.60-146.55 area [2] - A drop below 147.00 could trigger technical selling, pushing the USD/JPY pair down to 146.00, and potentially towards the 145.40 area, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level [2] Group 3 - The 147.65 area is identified as a key resistance level, with potential for the USD/JPY exchange rate to rise to 148.00 and further towards the 148.25-148.30 range [3] - Continued buying above the 148.30 level could trigger further upward movement, pushing prices above 149.00 and towards the psychological level of 150.00 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup expects the USD/JPY exchange rate to strengthen towards a target of around 120, as the U.S. seeks to address the issue of yen weakness in upcoming trade negotiations [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Expectations - Analysts led by Osamu Takashima believe that while the U.S. may consider a level around 100, a compromise level closer to 120 is more realistic [1] - The anticipated discussions between Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu and U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are expected to focus on this exchange rate issue [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Implications - Citigroup suggests that the normalization of policies by the Bank of Japan will support the yen's appreciation [1] - The Trump administration is likely to avoid increasing tariffs on Japan, which could further influence the yen's strength [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup anticipates that the Japanese yen will strengthen against the US dollar as the US seeks to address the yen's weakness in upcoming trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - Citigroup analysts, including Osamu Takashima, suggest a more realistic compromise level for the yen to dollar exchange rate is around 120 yen per dollar, rather than the 100 yen per dollar being considered by the US [1] - On Tuesday, the yen rose by 0.7%, reaching an exchange rate of 139.89 yen per dollar [1] - The expectation of the Bank of Japan moving towards policy normalization is expected to support the yen [1] Group 2 - The trade negotiations may encourage the Trump administration to avoid increasing tariffs on Japan [1]