Group 1 - The core inflation expectations have been raised, maintaining hopes for the normalization of the Bank of Japan's policies [1] - The market will closely monitor Governor Ueda's press conference for any hints regarding the timing of the next interest rate hike [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tokyo inflation has cooled but remains at a high level, supporting the Bank of Japan's policy normalization [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - Tokyo's core inflation pressure remains high despite government measures to stabilize prices [1] - The recent decline in Tokyo's inflation is not sufficient to alter the Bank of Japan's current policy stance [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current policy and not raise interest rates in the immediate future [1] - The focus is shifting towards the quarterly outlook report and comments on the US-Japan trade agreement [1] - The Bank of Japan is likely to revise its core inflation forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026, excluding energy [1] Group 3: Trade Agreement Implications - The US-Japan tariff agreement is viewed as a negative for the economy, but it may reduce uncertainty, which the central bank could welcome [1] - The decision regarding interest rate hikes remains challenging, but October is still seen as the most likely time for an increase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Australia Bank suggests that the Japanese yen may strengthen against the US dollar, potentially surpassing 140 yen per dollar in the second half of this year as the Bank of Japan normalizes its monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The Japanese yen is expected to appreciate against the US dollar due to changes in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy [1] - The forecast indicates a potential exchange rate of over 140 yen per dollar in the latter half of the year [1]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is trading around 147.00, with a decline of 0.26%, influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan, as the Fed adopts a dovish stance while the BoJ signals normalization [1] - The Japanese yen has shown a strong upward trend, supported by hawkish comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, indicating potential rate hikes if economic conditions improve [1] - The US April CPI year-on-year rate fell to 2.3%, weaker than market expectations, leading to market speculation of two rate cuts by the Fed by 2025, totaling a reduction of 56 basis points [1] Group 2 - Despite a recovery in global trade sentiment, investors still prefer the yen over the dollar as a safe-haven asset amid current geopolitical tensions [2] - From a technical perspective, a recent breakout above the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart supports bullish traders, with potential buying opportunities near the 146.60-146.55 area [2] - A drop below 147.00 could trigger technical selling, pushing the USD/JPY pair down to 146.00, and potentially towards the 145.40 area, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level [2] Group 3 - The 147.65 area is identified as a key resistance level, with potential for the USD/JPY exchange rate to rise to 148.00 and further towards the 148.25-148.30 range [3] - Continued buying above the 148.30 level could trigger further upward movement, pushing prices above 149.00 and towards the psychological level of 150.00 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup expects the USD/JPY exchange rate to strengthen towards a target of around 120, as the U.S. seeks to address the issue of yen weakness in upcoming trade negotiations [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Expectations - Analysts led by Osamu Takashima believe that while the U.S. may consider a level around 100, a compromise level closer to 120 is more realistic [1] - The anticipated discussions between Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu and U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are expected to focus on this exchange rate issue [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Implications - Citigroup suggests that the normalization of policies by the Bank of Japan will support the yen's appreciation [1] - The Trump administration is likely to avoid increasing tariffs on Japan, which could further influence the yen's strength [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup anticipates that the Japanese yen will strengthen against the US dollar as the US seeks to address the yen's weakness in upcoming trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - Citigroup analysts, including Osamu Takashima, suggest a more realistic compromise level for the yen to dollar exchange rate is around 120 yen per dollar, rather than the 100 yen per dollar being considered by the US [1] - On Tuesday, the yen rose by 0.7%, reaching an exchange rate of 139.89 yen per dollar [1] - The expectation of the Bank of Japan moving towards policy normalization is expected to support the yen [1] Group 2 - The trade negotiations may encourage the Trump administration to avoid increasing tariffs on Japan [1]