临近岁末，"繁荣不再"入选德国语言协会公布的2025年度十大热词。连续两年经济萎缩，且长期面临增 长乏力、美国关税压制、贸易挑战加剧等结构性困境，让这个热词如同"时代精神"一般，精准捕捉了当 下的德国经济状况与民众观感。 与此同时，随着德国新一届联邦政府就职，在财政扩张政策等多重因素刺激下，这个经济总量世界第 三、欧洲第一的"欧洲经济火车头"，正努力在繁荣难以为继的时代开启"艰难复苏"。 面对低增长的经济态势，德国企业正显著减少投资计划。德国制造业企业投资预期的降幅最大，汽车制 造业、化工业、机械工程业等领域的预期持续悲观。慕尼黑经济研究所的调查表明，11月德国企业的年 度投资预期较3月的数据大幅下降至负9.2点，意味着计划缩减投资的企业比计划扩大投资的企业多9.2个 百分点。 信心不足弥漫德国企业界。由于传统技术优势被快速稀释，企业经营不确定性上升，德国传统优势行业 如汽车、机械设备、化工等支柱产业普遍处于"转型阵痛期"。今年12月，大众关闭了其位于德国德累斯 顿的整车生产线。这是大众成立80多年以来，首次在本土关闭整车业务。德国化学工业协会负责人更是 表示，德国化工行业的产量、销量、价格、产能利用率等所有 ...

新华财经法兰克福12月31日电（记者尹亮）临近岁末，"繁荣不再"入选德国语言协会公布的2025年度十 大热词。连续两年经济萎缩，且长期面临增长乏力、美国关税压制、贸易挑战加剧等结构性困境，让这 个热词如同"时代精神"一般，精准捕捉了当下的德国经济状况与民众观感。 与此同时，随着德国新一届联邦政府就职，在财政扩张政策等多重因素刺激下，这个经济总量世界第 三、欧洲第一的"欧洲经济火车头"，正努力在繁荣难以为继的时代开启"艰难复苏"。 低增长、低投资、低信心成为德国经济"新常态" 2023年、2024年德国国内生产总值连续负增长，是德国近20年来绝无仅有的糟糕局面。破解经济持续不 振，成为2025年德国经济的主基调。 今年一季度，得益于美国加征关税之前的"出口前置"及通胀回落后消费信心增长等因素，德国国内生产 总值环比增长0.4%，成为2022年第三季度以来德国经济表现最强的季度。第二季度，德国经济没能延 续一季度的增长态势，受美国关税重创出口的影响，国内生产总值环比下降0.3%。 今夏欧洲央行停止降息后，经济不确定性有所减缓，公众对德国经济增长预期一度较为乐观。然而第三 季度，虽然固定资本投资有所增长，但外贸出口 ...

野村东方国际：日本央行加息的背景、展望及影响 20251222 摘要 日本经济逐步复苏，通胀接近 2%目标，促使央行结束极度宽松政策， 转向中性利率。预计 2026 年核心通胀可能短暂跌破 2%，但整体将回 升，支持进一步政策调整。 市场已基本消化 12 月加息预期，日元汇率加息后出现贬值。植田和男 对中性利率的表述未超预期，避免了市场对日本央行行动滞后的担忧， 降低了日债利率上升和日元贬值的风险。 高市政府采取积极财政扩张政策，虽增加政府负债压力，但财务省测算 显示短期和长期债务压力可控，不会引发系统性冲击。关注 2026 财年 预算，平衡扩张与可持续性至关重要。 本次加息与 2024 年 7 月底的套息交易反转风险不同，大规模冲击概率 较低。日本套息交易指标显示，本次加息差异显著，且植田和男提前沟 通策略，降低了市场冲击。 日债利率上升虽导致银行、寿险等机构出现浮亏，但完善的风险管理和 政府调控能力降低了系统性风险。机构投资者策略差异化，大规模一致 性抛售美债回流国内的可能性较低。 Q&A 日本央行在欧美央行降息的背景下为何持续加息？ 日本央行在欧美央行降息的背景下持续加息，主要有几个原因。首先，日本整 ...

| | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/12/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 1.2↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1615.300 | | 1077.7 | -21.10↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 +0.00↑ EC2602-EC2606价差 | 517.00 | | 357.40 | +0.00↑ | | | EC合约基差 | -100.80 | +25.45↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -749↓ | 31466 | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 25.45↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1509.10 | | 960.51 | 11.74↑ | | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） -5.50↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 1397.63 | | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） -6.91↓ CCFI（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 89.2%, indicating a significant shift in market expectations regarding monetary policy [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - As of December 3, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has reached 89.2% according to CME data [1] - Bank of America previously predicted that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates during the December meeting [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Market speculation about changes in Federal Reserve policy is driven by new motivations, primarily influenced by U.S. economic data, particularly employment figures [1] - Long-term trends should be monitored, as there are expectations of more aggressive fiscal expansion and economic support policies from the U.S. government, potentially under President Trump in 2026 [1] - The alignment of the Federal Reserve's actions with U.S. government policies is seen as a likely scenario, contributing to market predictions of continued accommodative monetary policy [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The trade war situation has improved, and there is a substantial turning point in geopolitical conflicts, but it has not yet affected the trade sector. Japan's actions may exacerbate geopolitical risks. China's export performance was weak in October, and freight rates lack support. With the arrival of the fourth - quarter shipping peak season, the demand side may pick up. The current freight rate market is highly influenced by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively this week. The main contract EC2602 closed down 3.78%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1357.67, down 147.13 points from last week, a 9.8% month - on - month decrease, which drove down the futures prices [5][33]. - The price of the main contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures decreased slightly this week. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2602 contract increased, and market trading warmed up [10][13]. 3.2 News Review and Analysis - Japan's actions, including the prime minister's wrong remarks on Taiwan and the issue of Japanese aquatic product exports, may have a negative impact on the market [18]. - Statements from the State Council Premier at the SCO meeting and the Fed's policy meeting minutes are considered neutral [18]. - The US's modification of patent rules and restrictions on Chinese enterprises are negative, while the Netherlands' suspension of the administrative order against Anshi Semiconductor is neutral to positive [18]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - The basis of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts shrank, and the spread widened this week [21]. - The export container freight rate index rebounded rapidly this week. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the shipping capacity on the European line recovered with the approaching peak season. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors [24][27]. - The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated at a high level this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [29]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively this week. China's manufacturing PMI in October declined more than seasonally, and the new export order index dropped significantly. The freight rate expectation continued to fall as shipping companies' price - support actions did not fully materialize. The Middle East situation postponed the expectation of Red Sea re - navigation. Germany's economic performance boosted market confidence [5][33]. - Considering the overall situation, although there are positive signs in trade and geopolitics, the freight rate lacks support. With the peak season approaching, the demand side may improve. The market is volatile, and investors should be cautious and track relevant data [6][34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the freight index (European line) futures prices declined collectively. The main contract EC2512 closed down 3.42%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1 - 5%. The current freight rate market is highly influenced by news, and the futures prices are expected to fluctuate more sharply. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures盘面 (Futures Market) - EC main contract closing price decreased by 61.9 to 1749.400, and the second - main contract closing price decreased by 56.8 to 1636.6. The EC2512 - EC2602 spread increased by 57.20 to 112.80, and the EC2512 - EC2604 spread increased by 19.10 to 577.40. The EC contract basis increased by 292.79 to - 244.60. The main contract EC2512's open interest decreased by 4048 to 21157 [2] 3.2 Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) increased by 296.09 to 1504.80, SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) increased by 62.56 to 1327.91. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) decreased by 55.60 to 1495.10, and container ship capacity (in ten thousand TEUs) increased by 0.12 to 1227.97. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) increased by 36.78 to 1058.17, CCFI (European line) (weekly) increased by 43.04 to 1366.85. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) increased by 12.00 to 2072.00, the Panamax freight index (daily) increased by 0.00, the average charter price of Panamax ships was 17564.00, and the average charter price of Capesize ships decreased by 20.00 to 28080.00 [2] 3.3 Industry News - The US announced a one - year suspension of the implementation of the export control penetration rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded that this is an important measure for the US to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur. The arrangement after the one - year suspension will be further discussed [2] - At the seminar on implementing the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao said that more detailed measures will be introduced in areas such as boosting consumption, expanding institutional opening - up, promoting trade innovation, and high - quality construction of the Belt and Road Initiative [2] - The US Senate passed the Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act, which will provide funds for the federal government until January 30 next year, revoke some lay - off measures during the "shutdown", and temporarily prevent further lay - offs. The US House of Representatives plans to vote on the bill on Wednesday [2] - The central bank's Q3 monetary policy report stated that it will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, keep social financing conditions relatively loose, and improve the monetary policy framework [2] 3.4 Key Points to Watch - November 13: US October unadjusted CPI annual rate (to be determined), US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 8 (in ten thousand people) (to be determined), French Q3 ILO unemployment rate at 14:30, UK Q3 GDP annual rate preliminary value at 15:00, UK September manufacturing output monthly rate at 15:00, Eurozone September industrial output monthly rate at 18:00 [2]

Group 1: Global Economic Trends - The global asset market in 2025 was driven by three main themes: artificial intelligence, "de-dollarization" amid interest rate cuts, and fiscal expansion policies from various countries[5] - The US dollar index fell by 8% in 2025, influenced by Trump's actions that damaged the dollar's credibility, leading to a global asset rebalancing favoring currencies like the yen and euro[5] - Major assets such as the Korean Composite Index and silver saw significant gains of 71% and 69% respectively in the first ten months of 2025[6] Group 2: US Economic Outlook - US consumer spending remained stable due to tight labor supply and stable wage growth, with actual purchasing power higher than in 2021-2022[10] - The actual tariff rate in the US was around 11%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate of 18%, limiting potential increases in tariffs[10] - The expected CPI growth for the US in 2026 is projected to average 3.1%, with inflation pressures peaking in the first half of the year[19] Group 3: Domestic Economic Projections - China's GDP growth target for 2026 is set around 5%, with fiscal and monetary policies expected to support this goal[39] - Net exports contributed positively to China's economy in 2025, while investment contributions declined, prompting increased focus on investment policies[38] - The real estate market in China is nearing a bottom, with conditions gradually maturing for stabilization[45] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - There is a strategic allocation opportunity in gold and copper, with gold's share in global reserves at 26.8%, significantly lower than historical levels[30] - The copper market is expected to experience a structural tightness due to insufficient capital expenditure and declining ore grades, making it a focus for investment[30] - The US stock market presents more opportunities than risks, driven by commitments from foreign investments in AI and technology sectors[34]

Group 1 - Japanese retail investors have rapidly purchased gold bars, depleting the inventory of precious metal retailers amid global uncertainties [1] - As of this week, the retail gold price in Japan has surpassed 22,400 yen per gram (approximately 1,057 RMB), nearly doubling in the past two years [1] - The price of gold in yen has increased nearly fourfold since the end of 2020 due to rising domestic inflation and yen depreciation [1] Group 2 - Retailers report a significant shift in investor behavior, with more individuals buying gold in anticipation of continued price increases rather than selling during price surges [1] - The inventory of gold bars weighing less than 50 grams is rapidly declining, with the price of 100-gram bars reaching 2.2 million yen, making smaller products more attractive to retail investors [1] - Tanaka Kikinzoku has stopped selling gold bars weighing 50 grams or less, and several competitors have also reported that smaller products are sold out [1] Group 3 - Tanaka Kikinzoku's sales planning manager stated that while raw material procurement is not an issue, production capacity for gold bars is struggling to keep up with demand [3] - The company is working to enhance production capacity, expecting to gradually resume sales by late November [3] - The surge in customer numbers began around late September when gold prices reached 20,000 yen per gram, driven by concerns over U.S. government policies [3] Group 4 - Analysts believe that the yen will continue to depreciate due to the expectation of more expansionary fiscal policies from both the ruling and opposition parties [3] - Daisaku Ueno, chief forex strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, noted that gold is viewed as an effective diversification option to protect asset value against yen depreciation risks [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold retail prices in Japan is influenced by multiple factors, including domestic economic policies and international geopolitical concerns [1] Domestic Factors - The expectation that the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party, Sanae Takaichi, will implement expansionary fiscal policies has led to a rapid depreciation of the yen [1] - On October 8, the yen to dollar exchange rate fell below 152 yen per dollar, marking the lowest level in approximately eight months [1] - As a result of the yen's depreciation, gold prices in yen terms have increased [1] International Factors - Ongoing concerns regarding a potential U.S. government shutdown and international geopolitical tensions have heightened demand for gold, which is viewed as a safe-haven asset [1]