Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The trade war situation has improved, and there is a substantial turning point in geopolitical conflicts, but it has not yet affected the trade sector. Japan's actions may exacerbate geopolitical risks. China's export performance was weak in October, and freight rates lack support. With the arrival of the fourth - quarter shipping peak season, the demand side may pick up. The current freight rate market is highly influenced by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively this week. The main contract EC2602 closed down 3.78%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1357.67, down 147.13 points from last week, a 9.8% month - on - month decrease, which drove down the futures prices [5][33]. - The price of the main contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures decreased slightly this week. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2602 contract increased, and market trading warmed up [10][13]. 3.2 News Review and Analysis - Japan's actions, including the prime minister's wrong remarks on Taiwan and the issue of Japanese aquatic product exports, may have a negative impact on the market [18]. - Statements from the State Council Premier at the SCO meeting and the Fed's policy meeting minutes are considered neutral [18]. - The US's modification of patent rules and restrictions on Chinese enterprises are negative, while the Netherlands' suspension of the administrative order against Anshi Semiconductor is neutral to positive [18]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - The basis of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts shrank, and the spread widened this week [21]. - The export container freight rate index rebounded rapidly this week. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the shipping capacity on the European line recovered with the approaching peak season. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors [24][27]. - The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated at a high level this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [29]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively this week. China's manufacturing PMI in October declined more than seasonally, and the new export order index dropped significantly. The freight rate expectation continued to fall as shipping companies' price - support actions did not fully materialize. The Middle East situation postponed the expectation of Red Sea re - navigation. Germany's economic performance boosted market confidence [5][33]. - Considering the overall situation, although there are positive signs in trade and geopolitics, the freight rate lacks support. With the peak season approaching, the demand side may improve. The market is volatile, and investors should be cautious and track relevant data [6][34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the freight index (European line) futures prices declined collectively. The main contract EC2512 closed down 3.42%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1 - 5%. The current freight rate market is highly influenced by news, and the futures prices are expected to fluctuate more sharply. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures盘面 (Futures Market) - EC main contract closing price decreased by 61.9 to 1749.400, and the second - main contract closing price decreased by 56.8 to 1636.6. The EC2512 - EC2602 spread increased by 57.20 to 112.80, and the EC2512 - EC2604 spread increased by 19.10 to 577.40. The EC contract basis increased by 292.79 to - 244.60. The main contract EC2512's open interest decreased by 4048 to 21157 [2] 3.2 Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) increased by 296.09 to 1504.80, SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) increased by 62.56 to 1327.91. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) decreased by 55.60 to 1495.10, and container ship capacity (in ten thousand TEUs) increased by 0.12 to 1227.97. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) increased by 36.78 to 1058.17, CCFI (European line) (weekly) increased by 43.04 to 1366.85. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) increased by 12.00 to 2072.00, the Panamax freight index (daily) increased by 0.00, the average charter price of Panamax ships was 17564.00, and the average charter price of Capesize ships decreased by 20.00 to 28080.00 [2] 3.3 Industry News - The US announced a one - year suspension of the implementation of the export control penetration rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded that this is an important measure for the US to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur. The arrangement after the one - year suspension will be further discussed [2] - At the seminar on implementing the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao said that more detailed measures will be introduced in areas such as boosting consumption, expanding institutional opening - up, promoting trade innovation, and high - quality construction of the Belt and Road Initiative [2] - The US Senate passed the Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act, which will provide funds for the federal government until January 30 next year, revoke some lay - off measures during the "shutdown", and temporarily prevent further lay - offs. The US House of Representatives plans to vote on the bill on Wednesday [2] - The central bank's Q3 monetary policy report stated that it will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, keep social financing conditions relatively loose, and improve the monetary policy framework [2] 3.4 Key Points to Watch - November 13: US October unadjusted CPI annual rate (to be determined), US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 8 (in ten thousand people) (to be determined), French Q3 ILO unemployment rate at 14:30, UK Q3 GDP annual rate preliminary value at 15:00, UK September manufacturing output monthly rate at 15:00, Eurozone September industrial output monthly rate at 18:00 [2]

Group 1: Global Economic Trends - The global asset market in 2025 was driven by three main themes: artificial intelligence, "de-dollarization" amid interest rate cuts, and fiscal expansion policies from various countries[5] - The US dollar index fell by 8% in 2025, influenced by Trump's actions that damaged the dollar's credibility, leading to a global asset rebalancing favoring currencies like the yen and euro[5] - Major assets such as the Korean Composite Index and silver saw significant gains of 71% and 69% respectively in the first ten months of 2025[6] Group 2: US Economic Outlook - US consumer spending remained stable due to tight labor supply and stable wage growth, with actual purchasing power higher than in 2021-2022[10] - The actual tariff rate in the US was around 11%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate of 18%, limiting potential increases in tariffs[10] - The expected CPI growth for the US in 2026 is projected to average 3.1%, with inflation pressures peaking in the first half of the year[19] Group 3: Domestic Economic Projections - China's GDP growth target for 2026 is set around 5%, with fiscal and monetary policies expected to support this goal[39] - Net exports contributed positively to China's economy in 2025, while investment contributions declined, prompting increased focus on investment policies[38] - The real estate market in China is nearing a bottom, with conditions gradually maturing for stabilization[45] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - There is a strategic allocation opportunity in gold and copper, with gold's share in global reserves at 26.8%, significantly lower than historical levels[30] - The copper market is expected to experience a structural tightness due to insufficient capital expenditure and declining ore grades, making it a focus for investment[30] - The US stock market presents more opportunities than risks, driven by commitments from foreign investments in AI and technology sectors[34]

Group 1 - Japanese retail investors have rapidly purchased gold bars, depleting the inventory of precious metal retailers amid global uncertainties [1] - As of this week, the retail gold price in Japan has surpassed 22,400 yen per gram (approximately 1,057 RMB), nearly doubling in the past two years [1] - The price of gold in yen has increased nearly fourfold since the end of 2020 due to rising domestic inflation and yen depreciation [1] Group 2 - Retailers report a significant shift in investor behavior, with more individuals buying gold in anticipation of continued price increases rather than selling during price surges [1] - The inventory of gold bars weighing less than 50 grams is rapidly declining, with the price of 100-gram bars reaching 2.2 million yen, making smaller products more attractive to retail investors [1] - Tanaka Kikinzoku has stopped selling gold bars weighing 50 grams or less, and several competitors have also reported that smaller products are sold out [1] Group 3 - Tanaka Kikinzoku's sales planning manager stated that while raw material procurement is not an issue, production capacity for gold bars is struggling to keep up with demand [3] - The company is working to enhance production capacity, expecting to gradually resume sales by late November [3] - The surge in customer numbers began around late September when gold prices reached 20,000 yen per gram, driven by concerns over U.S. government policies [3] Group 4 - Analysts believe that the yen will continue to depreciate due to the expectation of more expansionary fiscal policies from both the ruling and opposition parties [3] - Daisaku Ueno, chief forex strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, noted that gold is viewed as an effective diversification option to protect asset value against yen depreciation risks [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold retail prices in Japan is influenced by multiple factors, including domestic economic policies and international geopolitical concerns [1] Domestic Factors - The expectation that the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party, Sanae Takaichi, will implement expansionary fiscal policies has led to a rapid depreciation of the yen [1] - On October 8, the yen to dollar exchange rate fell below 152 yen per dollar, marking the lowest level in approximately eight months [1] - As a result of the yen's depreciation, gold prices in yen terms have increased [1] International Factors - Ongoing concerns regarding a potential U.S. government shutdown and international geopolitical tensions have heightened demand for gold, which is viewed as a safe-haven asset [1]

相较于2024年联邦支出预算，2025年德国政府计划增加支出约450亿欧元（占德国GDP的1%），2026年 增幅将超过800亿欧元（占GDP的1.8%）。到2026年，基础设施支出增加250亿欧元，国防和社会支出 则分别增加400亿欧元和260亿欧元。 加尔纳特说，高盛对德国未来几年的经济前景明显更加乐观，预期德国财政扩张政策将相对较快落地， 且国防开支将惠及德国制造商，产生高达0.6的乘数效应。国防订单主要面向德国制造商，进口份额仅 占约三分之一。随着德国制造商扩大产能，该乘数效应可能进一步提升。 新华财经法兰克福10月7日电（记者刘向） 高盛集团日前发布的《欧洲经济展望》报告显示，相比今年 2月德国大选前，高盛对德国经济增长前景更加乐观，预计2025年德国经济增长0.3%，2026年增长 1.4%。 他说，德国制造业与建筑业信心已有所改善，预计德国制造业将逐步复苏。但结构性逆风持续存在，包 括高能源价格对工业构成压力，竞争力下降，劳动力供给减少，以及来自海外市场的激烈竞争等。 该报告作者之一、德国经济学家尼克拉斯·加尔纳特（Niklas Garnadt）7日在位于法兰克福的高盛欧洲银 行股份公司总部对媒 ...

Group 1 - The euro is currently trading around 1.1732 against the US dollar, reflecting a decline of 0.12% from the previous closing price of 1.1746 [1] - Goldman Sachs Asset Management's Simon Dangoor predicts that the European Central Bank (ECB) will conduct its last rate cut of the current cycle in December, given the multiple uncertainties facing the economy [1] - Dangoor emphasizes that the ECB is not in a hurry to cut rates further and prefers to wait for clearer signals regarding global trade conditions and inflation trends [1] Group 2 - The key support levels for the overall bullish trend are identified at 1.1700 and approximately 1.1710, with potential downside targets at 1.1660 [2] - On the upside, the intraday high is noted at 1.1790, with resistance levels at 1.1850 and 1.1878 [2]

智通财经APP获悉，日本政府首席发言人、日本首相候选人林芳正(Yoshimasa Hayashi)表示，日本央行 逐步提高利率的计划与政府在经济政策方面的考量大致相符。当被问及他是否担心美联储的降息举措会 因推高日元兑美元汇率而损害日本依赖出口的经济时，林芳正表示，东京的政策制定者们已经不再抱有 这种假设了。 自民党内部的领导权之争引起了市场的高度关注，并导致政府债券收益率上升，因为人们认为新领导人 可能会加大财政支出力度。 若当选首相，林芳正表示其政府将制定一系列措施，以减轻因生活成本上升而带来的经济冲击，同时增 加救灾方面的投入。但他表示，支出规模必须考虑到日本"相当微小"的产出缺口，并且不能发行用于弥 补赤字的债务，因此无需采取大规模的刺激措施。 这一言论与另一位竞争者高市早苗的言论形成了鲜明对比。高市早苗在竞选中承诺将实施财政扩张政 策，作为刺激经济复苏的计划的一部分。 日本媒体在周末进行的一项民意调查中，询问了谁最适合担任自民党党首。结果显示，林芳正以 11% 的支持率位居第三，而 40%的支持率的小泉进次郎和 22%的支持率的高市早苗位列前儿。 由于通货膨胀率已连续超过 2%的目标长达三年之久，日 ...

Inflation Trends - The core CPI in the US rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% year-on-year in July, with a month-on-month increase of 0.32%, marking the second-highest rise since April 2024[3] - Core durable goods prices increased significantly by 0.36% month-on-month, while energy prices fell by 1.07%, indicating the impact of elevated tariff rates on goods inflation[4] - The labor market's cooling has not significantly affected inflation, as average hourly wages rebounded, sustaining the wage inflation spiral[4] Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The strong rebound in core inflation may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, as maintaining a long-term inflation target of 2% becomes challenging[5] - The ongoing high tariff rates, ranging from 10% to 41%, are expected to further influence the core CPI in the coming months as trade agreements are finalized[5] - The anticipated effects of large-scale tax cuts for residents and businesses have yet to materialize, suggesting that inflationary pressures may persist[5] Economic Outlook - The current economic cycle is likely to remain heated, with potential upward pressure on core inflation due to a tighter labor market and rising wage growth[5] - The divergence in monetary policy among major developed economies may lead to a rebound in the US dollar index as it adjusts to real interest rate differentials[5] - Risks include the possibility that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may not meet expectations, which could constrain monetary easing in other countries[6]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment towards the Japanese stock market remains positive, driven by a new trade agreement with the U.S. that reduces tariffs on Japanese imports from 25% to 15% [1][5] - The Japanese stock market saw significant gains, with the TOPIX index reaching a historical high, and ETFs such as Nikkei 225 ETF and Tokyo Stock Exchange ETF rising by 4.18% and 3.89% respectively [1][5] - The recent elections resulted in the ruling coalition losing control of both houses, indicating a potential shift towards expansionary fiscal policies, which is expected to positively impact the stock market [1][9] Group 2 - Japanese automotive stocks led the market rally, with Toyota, Honda, and Nissan shares increasing by 12%, 8.6%, and 8.8% respectively following the tariff news [5] - The net asset values of cross-border Japanese stock ETFs have shown significant increases, with year-to-date gains of 6.64% and 10.51% for Nikkei 225 ETF and Tokyo Stock Exchange ETF [5] - The reduction of automotive tariffs from 27.5% to 15% is projected to significantly benefit the profitability outlook for Japan's major automotive manufacturers [8] Group 3 - The Japanese yen has rebounded against the U.S. dollar, trading at 146.52, influenced by the tariff news and market sentiment [10] - Analysts suggest that the recent election results will not significantly impact the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, with expectations of maintaining interest rates for an extended period [13] - Despite concerns over corporate profitability, particularly in the automotive sector, wage growth is anticipated to continue, which may limit the impact of any future earnings declines on inflation [13]