Core Viewpoint - SF Holding has achieved record high performance in 2024, with a net profit of 10.17 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.51%, driven by steady development in express delivery, diversified strategies, and significant cost reduction efforts [1] Group 1: Competitive Advantages - The company possesses a unique business model that includes direct operation, comprehensive logistics, and independent third-party services, leading to superior service quality and customer satisfaction [2] - The company has established a robust logistics infrastructure over 30 years, creating a resource moat that is difficult to replicate, with strategic assets like the Ezhou freight hub enhancing operational efficiency [2] - The combination of direct operation, comprehensive logistics, and independent third-party services provides a differentiated competitive edge, with over 2.3 million active monthly customers and more than 730 million individual members expected by the end of 2024 [2] Group 2: Cost Reduction and Management Transformation - The company has implemented a multi-network integration strategy, achieving significant cost reductions, with cumulative savings exceeding 3.8 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024 [3] - Operational changes have simplified end-stage processes, with over 3,400 sites adopting new sorting and delivery methods, and automation in short-distance transport being introduced [3] Group 3: Business Expansion - The express delivery business has seen an 11.8% year-on-year growth in 2024, driven by increasing demand in consumer and industrial sectors, with e-commerce returns also showing significant growth [4] - The supply chain and international business segment generated 70.5 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a 17.5% increase, benefiting from cross-border e-commerce and logistics demand in Southeast Asia [5] - The KEX subsidiary is undergoing a strategic shift towards high-margin segments, with expectations for improved profitability despite a projected net loss of 1.32 billion yuan in 2024 [5] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 312.49 billion yuan, 339.27 billion yuan, and 370.38 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 11.86 billion yuan, 14.01 billion yuan, and 16.22 billion yuan respectively [6] - The expected earnings per share for the same period are 2.35 yuan, 2.78 yuan, and 3.22 yuan, indicating strong growth potential and investment opportunities [6]

很多人喜欢给投资做总结。比如，价值投资的理想标的，得兼具好生意和好的管理层。 生意指的是商业模式，管理层通常用来代指公司能力。一眼看去，这总结自然没错。但问题是，在很多时 候，市场并没有那么多同时满足好生意和好公司这两个条件的标的。所以在投资中我们会不时面对现实选 择，如果好模式与好能力无法兼得，是选"好商业模式+平庸能力"，还是选"平庸商业模式+好能力"？ 要做这道选择题，我建议先来厘清模式和公司能力，以及它们分别会如何影响企业盈利。 在我看来，商业模式指的是一个企业如何做一门生意，包括但不限于客户需求是什么，支付意愿如何，采 购目标如何，成本结构如何等问题。好的商业模式，指的是在既有的做生意方式下，可能会产生更大的可 持续差异上限。 比如说浓香型白酒，都是52度500毫升，品质都很好，可同类产品间溢价差别却非常明显。 化工就是其典型的例子。这种行业往往产品同质化严重，客户粘性几乎为零，只能靠成本取得优势。但即 使在这样的商业模式下，有些企业仍然可以通过后天努力，比如生产管理，范围经济等手段实现持续的成 本优势，从而实现可观的盈利能力。记得有个化工从业者曾经跟我说过，"当行业毛利率集体跌破5%时， 我们愣是 ...