最近刷到广东那位兄弟聊潮汕生意口诀，"再穷不打工，宁可睡地板也要当老板"，看完我这做了20年财经记者、专做中长线的投资者，真是越品越有味道！ 不是说打工不好，是这股子潮汕人的生意智慧，跟我多年投资的门道简直不谋而合。 潮汕人说"算盘要打穿，人情要留香"，投资里也是这个理。中长线不是瞎捂股，得把行业逻辑、企业护城河算透，就像他们做生意看重回头客，投资也要给 优质企业成长的时间，别被短期涨跌带偏。"老街开新铺，新街开老铺"，本质就是不追热门、找估值洼地，这跟我一直强调的"冷门赛道挖真金"完全契合。 20年财经记者生涯，见多了追涨杀跌的亏家，也见证了不少守得住耐心的赢家。其实潮汕生意经和中长线投资的核心都一样：耐住性子、找对逻辑、稳扎稳 打。跟着帮主郑重，咱们不贪快钱，只赚看得懂、拿得住的稳当收益。 前两年我去潮汕采访，跟一位开特产铺的老板喝茶，他在小县城开了家挺大的店，反而在广州深圳没布局。我问他为啥反着来，他笑着说"小地方开大店， 竞争少还能攒住老客"，这话一下戳中我了。就像我当年盯新能源赛道，别人都扎堆追短线热点，我偏沉下心研究行业政策和企业技术壁垒，熬了三年才等 到真正的爆发期，这不就是生意经里的"不跟风、 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes three companies—Waste Management, Intuitive Surgical, and Marriott International—as strong candidates for long-term investment due to their competitive advantages and stable cash flows [2][3]. Waste Management - Waste Management (WM) reported second-quarter revenue of approximately $6.4 billion, reflecting a 19% year-over-year increase, driven by solid performance in core operations and contributions from a healthcare disposal acquisition [5]. - The legacy disposal business saw a revenue increase of 7.1% year over year, indicating robust growth even without acquisitions [5]. - WM's management projects full-year free cash flow between $2.8 billion and $2.9 billion, significantly up from an initial guidance of $125 million, supporting dividends and buybacks while allowing for growth investments [6]. - The company's scale, route density, and long-term contracts create a competitive moat that is difficult for new entrants to penetrate [6]. Intuitive Surgical - Intuitive Surgical reported second-quarter revenue of about $2.44 billion, a 21% year-over-year increase, driven by higher placements of da Vinci systems and increased procedure volumes [9]. - The installed base of da Vinci systems grew at a double-digit rate, and management expects procedure growth of approximately 15.5% to 17% in 2025 [9][10]. - The company has a strong balance sheet with significant cash reserves and no debt, enhancing its resilience [12]. - Intuitive Surgical's price-to-earnings ratio is around 61, indicating that much of the potential upside is already reflected in the stock price [11]. Marriott International - Marriott International's second-quarter revenue per available room (RevPAR) increased by 1.5% year over year, with international markets growing by 5.3% [13]. - Non-GAAP earnings per share rose to $2.65, up from $2.50 in the previous year, and adjusted EBITDA reached approximately $1.4 billion, a 7% increase year over year [13]. - The company repurchased about $0.7 billion of stock during the quarter and has returned approximately $2.1 billion year to date through dividends and buybacks [13]. - Marriott's asset-light model, focusing on franchising and management rather than ownership, allows for low capital needs and strong cash conversion [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that product strength equals value potential, and marketing's role is to reduce cognitive friction while channels aim to lower distribution friction. Short-term supply-demand imbalances create temporary dividends, which companies cannot rely on for long-term success. Only those companies that understand how to build a competitive moat can achieve sustainable profits [1] Group 2 - The article promotes a course titled "Consumer Reconstruction Selected Course," featuring top practical mentors from the Chinese and Japanese consumer sectors, aimed at providing insights into the methodologies of consumer giants [2] - The course is priced at 12,800 yuan per person, with an early bird price of 9,800 yuan per person [3] - The event will take place in Shanghai from August 7 to August 9 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with deep economic moats for long-term investment success, highlighting that many investors confuse short-term advantages with long-term barriers [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Moats - The article categorizes economic moats into six types: brand premium, network effects, scale cost advantages, high user switching costs, core technology barriers, and resource exclusivity [3]. - Brand value is not just about recognition but also about consumers' willingness to pay a premium [3]. - Network effects create a positive feedback loop where the value of a platform increases with more users [3]. Group 2: Misconceptions about Moats - Common misconceptions that can lead to investment risks include: technology leadership that is easily iterated, reliance on a single blockbuster product, short-term traffic benefits, channel advantages under pressure, and over-dependence on management capabilities [3]. - These factors may provide temporary growth but lack structural barriers, making them less reliable for long-term investment [3]. Group 3: Investment Analysis - In dynamic competitive markets, the strength of an economic moat determines investment certainty [3]. - Instead of chasing superficial high-growth data, it is crucial to analyze whether a company possesses pricing power or user lock-in capabilities [3].

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett announced his decision to step down as CEO by the end of the year, marking the end of an era in the investment world [1] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The concept of a "moat" in investing includes several categories, such as cost advantages in production and services, and demand-side advantages that are difficult for competitors to replicate [3] - The essence of a moat is an advantage that cannot be easily imitated or surpassed by competitors in the short to medium term [3] Group 2: Circle of Competence and Focus - The main challenge in executing a seemingly simple investment framework is the discrepancy between ideals and reality, particularly due to market volatility and unpredictability [4] - Understanding value investing, including concepts like margin of safety and circle of competence, is crucial for investors [4] Group 3: Time and Patience - Time and patience are fundamental yet challenging aspects of investing; even a modest annual return can lead to significant wealth accumulation over time through compounding [5] - Buffett's investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of waiting for the right opportunities, suggesting that only a limited number of investments (e.g., 20) may define an investor's success [6]

Core Viewpoint - Value investment is understood as buying listed companies from the perspective of acquiring the business, focusing on the company's intrinsic value rather than market sentiment [1] Group 1: Investment Framework - The key factors in the investment framework are the difference between enterprise value and market price, which implies a long-term return rate [2] - The quality of the enterprise, referred to as "moat," is crucial in determining enterprise value [2] - The purchase price must be appropriate, ensuring that the implied return rate exceeds the required threshold [2] Group 2: Assessing Moat - A company's moat is established based on its specific business model, creating sustainable differences from competitors [3] - Cost advantages, such as economies of scale or production efficiency, are often the basis for a company's moat [3] - Evaluating a company's moat involves projecting its competitive advantages over a long-term horizon [3] Group 3: Monitoring Moat Changes - Changes in a company's moat can occur due to various factors, including procurement, production efficiency, and market conditions [4][5] - Tracking moat changes is a continuous process, not solely based on stock price fluctuations [6] - Observing industry events and regulatory changes can also impact the assessment of a company's moat [6] Group 4: Valuation and Pricing - A good purchase price is defined as one that offers value for money, where the implied return rate is high [8] - The assessment of enterprise value is inherently a range due to the variability in core assumptions [9] - When stock prices decline, if the enterprise value remains unchanged, it indicates a higher implied return rate, prompting further purchases [10] Group 5: Selling Logic - The selling strategy includes three scenarios: when the price rises and the implied return no longer meets expectations, when the assessment of enterprise value changes negatively, or when a better investment opportunity arises [13] Group 6: Expanding Capability Circle - Expanding the capability circle involves exploring unfamiliar businesses that may present interesting opportunities [14] - Researching companies that have been listed for a few years can provide comprehensive data for analysis [14] - Engaging with stocks recommended by internal and external analysts can also aid in expanding the capability circle [14] Group 7: Market Trends and Research Depth - Interest in sectors like smart driving, new energy vehicles, AI, and semiconductors is noted due to their potential impact on the economy and business operations [15] - A thorough understanding of new sectors should be prioritized over merely following market trends [15] Group 8: Communication with Stakeholders - The focus is on the quality of enterprises and the belief that prices will eventually align with value, although the timing of this alignment is uncertain [16]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes that in today's technological era, the speed of growth and iteration of a business is its true competitive advantage, rather than any fixed asset or traditional moat [11]. Group 1: Product and Innovation - The highest configuration of the company's product is named "Home" instead of "Ultra" to align with its mission of creating a mobile and happy home, which resonates well with real users [2]. - The company aims to bridge the digital and physical worlds through artificial intelligence, enhancing vehicle safety from passive to active systems [3]. - The company has developed its own operating system, "Li Xiang Star Ring OS," which has been fully open-sourced, inspired by the comprehensive open-source approach of DeepSeek [10]. Group 2: Company Philosophy and Management - The company prioritizes user problems as the core goal, advocating for a focus on solving significant user issues rather than being driven by fear or desire [5]. - The company maintains strict budget approvals, reflecting a culture of frugality despite having surpassed 100 billion in revenue [6]. - Safety-related expenses are exempt from budget approvals, highlighting the company's commitment to prioritizing user safety [8]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - The company believes that opening its technology to the community will not only motivate its team but also enhance its offerings through external feedback and collaboration [12]. - The company recognizes the global leadership of Chinese electric vehicles and aims to leverage its advancements in smart automotive operating systems to benefit the global market [12].

很多人喜欢给投资做总结。比如，价值投资的理想标的，得兼具好生意和好的管理层。 生意指的是商业模式，管理层通常用来代指公司能力。一眼看去，这总结自然没错。但问题是，在很多时 候，市场并没有那么多同时满足好生意和好公司这两个条件的标的。所以在投资中我们会不时面对现实选 择，如果好模式与好能力无法兼得，是选"好商业模式+平庸能力"，还是选"平庸商业模式+好能力"？ 要做这道选择题，我建议先来厘清模式和公司能力，以及它们分别会如何影响企业盈利。 在我看来，商业模式指的是一个企业如何做一门生意，包括但不限于客户需求是什么，支付意愿如何，采 购目标如何，成本结构如何等问题。好的商业模式，指的是在既有的做生意方式下，可能会产生更大的可 持续差异上限。 比如说浓香型白酒，都是52度500毫升，品质都很好，可同类产品间溢价差别却非常明显。 化工就是其典型的例子。这种行业往往产品同质化严重，客户粘性几乎为零，只能靠成本取得优势。但即 使在这样的商业模式下，有些企业仍然可以通过后天努力，比如生产管理，范围经济等手段实现持续的成 本优势，从而实现可观的盈利能力。记得有个化工从业者曾经跟我说过，"当行业毛利率集体跌破5%时， 我们愣是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the diverse opinions among prominent investors regarding the investment in humanoid robot companies, emphasizing the importance of individual decision-making in investments rather than following the crowd [2][4]. Group 1: Investment Decision-Making - Investment decisions are highly personalized and influenced by various factors such as investment philosophy, risk tolerance, personal attributes, target return requirements, and the nature of the funds used [4]. - Different investment philosophies can lead to contrasting decisions even when evaluating the same asset, as exemplified by Warren Buffett's long-term ownership perspective versus the trading mindset of many investors [4]. Group 2: Research and Analysis - Investors should conduct thorough research on a company's earnings prospects, financial status, competitive position, and development plans before making any stock purchases [5]. - The presence of a promising industry does not guarantee the existence of many companies with strong competitive advantages, highlighting the need for careful evaluation of potential investments [5].