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固定收益|点评报告:债市后续如何定价春节假期数据?
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-24 23:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - frequency data during the 2026 Spring Festival shows that the "quantity" of travel and tourism consumption continued to recover, but the price recovery lagged; the logistics was differentiated, with strong foreign trade resilience and weak production and consumption logistics; the volume of hotels and scenic spots increased while the price decreased, and the box office was weak; the real - estate market continued to be under pressure, with weak transactions in both new and second - hand housing. With the price increase in the second half of last year and the carry - over effect, it is highly likely that the subsequent fundamentals will shift from "trading price for volume" to "trading volume for price". Currently in a low - interest - rate environment in China, minor fundamental changes have limited impact on the bond market, and the view of a volatile bond market is maintained. The short - end of the bond market depends on the central bank, and the carry - trade strategy may continue. The long - end, especially the 30 - year treasury bond, needs to focus on fiscal efforts and the bank's carrying capacity. In the medium - term, the inflation theme should be monitored [1][4][7][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Travel: Long holidays release travel demand, and self - driving travel is popular - The demand for family visits and tourism during the Spring Festival was continuously released, and the overall passenger volume remained high. As of the sixth day of the first lunar month, during the first 21 days of the Spring Festival travel rush, the overall passenger volume increased by 6.0% year - on - year. Among different transportation modes, the waterway had the highest growth rate, with railway, civil aviation, highway, and waterway passenger volumes increasing by 5.3%, 5.5%, 6.0%, and 23.1% respectively [10]. - The cross - regional population flow during the Spring Festival travel rush in 2026 reached a new high in recent years, with a significant increase in travel willingness. The peak occurred on the sixth day of the first lunar month, with a 12.3% increase compared to 2025, a 20.6% increase compared to 2024, and a 46.9% increase compared to 2019 [10]. - There was an obvious characteristic of off - peak travel before the festival. The growth compared to 2025 was mainly concentrated in the post - festival peak, while the improvement compared to 2024 started from the 24th day of the twelfth lunar month. The growth compared to 2019 was throughout the whole period, indicating that the long holiday catalyzed the release of residents' travel demand [11]. - The travel choices during the Spring Festival travel rush in 2026 were dominated by self - driving, reflecting residents' preference for short - distance travel. The proportion of non - commercial highway (mainly private cars) flow reached 81.6%, a 11.9 - percentage - point increase compared to 2019 [18]. - The domestic flight volume, passenger volume, and occupancy rate remained prosperous, but the price recovery was weak, and the pattern of "trading price for volume" was difficult to reverse in the short term. The domestic flight volume increased by 4.0% year - on - year, the passenger volume increased by 6.5%, the occupancy rate increased by 1.2%, and the domestic oil - included ticket price decreased by 1.5% [22]. 3.2. Logistics: Foreign trade shows resilience, while production and consumption logistics weaken in advance - The national logistics near the Spring Festival in 2026 showed a pattern of "strong foreign - trade resilience, high - then - low production logistics, and early - weakening consumption logistics". The container throughput maintained a year - on - year positive growth of 9.3% - 12.2% in the four weeks before the festival, but the growth rate of the monitored port cargo throughput fluctuated and declined [34]. - The production logistics was high in the early stage and low in the later stage. The national highway truck traffic volume increased by 4.3% and 2.6% year - on - year in the four and three weeks before the festival respectively, but the growth rate slowed down and turned negative in the last two weeks before the festival, indicating a rapid contraction of production logistics near the holiday [34]. - The consumption logistics contracted in advance. The postal express collection volume declined from 9.2% four weeks before the festival to 0.5% one week before the festival, and the delivery volume declined from 7.9% to 1.4%, suggesting that the peak of New Year goods delivery was earlier than last year [34]. - The railway transportation was stable, and civil aviation continued to grow. The national railway freight volume fluctuated slightly around zero, and the civil aviation flight volume maintained a positive growth of 4.8% - 6.0% [34]. 3.3. Tourism Consumption: Hotels and Scenic Spots See Volume Increase but Price Decrease, and the Box Office is Weak - The hotel occupancy rate increased, but the price was under pressure. The occupancy rate of the overall sample of Chinese mainland hotels increased from 54.7% five weeks before the festival to 64.0% one week before the festival, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. However, the revenue per available room (RevPAR) and the average daily rate (ADR) decreased compared to last year [40]. - The scenic spots' business improved. The number of tourists in many provincial - level key - monitored scenic spots increased significantly, and the revenue of some popular scenic spots also increased substantially. For example, the revenue of Zhangjiajie Huanglongdong increased by 79% [42][45]. - Hainan's tourism consumption recovered strongly, with both volume and price increasing. The number of passengers at Haikou Meilan Airport increased day by day, and the off - island duty - free shopping also rebounded significantly. From February 15 - 19, the shopping amount, number of people, and per - capita consumption were 13.8 billion yuan, 17.7 million person - times, and 7,797 yuan respectively, with year - on - year increases of 19%, 24.6%, and - 4.5% [45]. - The Spring Festival movie market had a weak performance in both volume and price. The 7 - day cumulative box office from New Year's Eve to the sixth day of the first lunar month was 5.09 billion yuan, with a recovery rate of only 86% compared to 2019, and the average ticket price decreased by 5% year - on - year [47]. 3.4. Real Estate: Both New and Second - hand Housing Transactions are Weak, and the Volume and Price in First - tier Cities are Declining - The new - housing market had a significant decline in transaction volume. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the two months before the Spring Festival in 2026 was significantly lower than the same period in the past five years. In the first week before the festival, it was only 1.102 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 36.6%, and during the Spring Festival week, it was 83,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4% [61]. - The second - hand housing market was weak in both volume and price. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the second - hand housing transaction area in 12 cities was only 247,200 square meters in the first week before the Spring Festival, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. The national second - hand housing listing price index continued to decline, with a 7.0% year - on - year decrease in the first week before the festival [61]. - The land market was also sluggish. The premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities was 2.42% in the first week before the festival, significantly lower than 9.86% in the same period last year [62]. 3.5. How will the Bond Market Price the Spring Festival Holiday Data? - The real - estate market is still in a downward pressure channel, with weak sales volume and price, especially in some first - tier cities where housing prices may decline at an accelerated pace. The consumer data shows a rapid recovery in volume but pressure on prices, continuing the "trading price for volume" trend. With the price increase in the second half of last year and the carry - over effect, it is likely that the fundamentals will shift from "trading price for volume" to "trading volume for price" [77]. - In the current low - interest - rate environment in China, minor fundamental changes have limited impact on the bond market. The view of a volatile bond market is maintained. The short - end of the bond market depends on the central bank, and the carry - trade strategy may continue. The long - end, especially the 30 - year treasury bond, needs to focus on fiscal efforts and the bank's carrying capacity. In the medium - term, the inflation theme should be monitored [77].
“越王勾践来了也看不到他的剑”,多地景区启动限流!
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-21 14:09
转自:法治日报 "今天越王勾践来了也看不到他的剑。""今天的灵隐寺,济公来了都要排队。" 媒体注意到,为保障游客安全与游览体验,多家景区及地方文旅部门于当日发布官方公告,紧急启动限 流措施,并呼吁游客调整行程,选择周边景区游览或错峰出行。 2月20日上午,泰山、龙门石窟、万岁山武侠城、九华山等热门景区也相继发布客流量大、采取限流措 施等通知公告。 有的景区放缓游客进入速度、有的景区启动游客暂停入园措施、有的景区暂停园区内的观光车,甚至还 有停船的。当日一早,舟山客运就发布消息称,当日普陀山至洛迦山航线船票已售罄,暂停线上线下购 票,已买船票的旅客请于上午10:30之前登船。 据"中国庐山发布"微信公众号2月20日9时45分发布的通告,江西九江庐山核心景区(山上)自20日即时 起至16时实施限流,暂停当日线上及线下预约售票,关闭所有预约通道。已成功预约或预订山上宾馆、 民宿的游客可正常入园,未预约游客被建议转往秀峰、白鹿洞书院等环庐山景区游览。同时,庐山文控 景区管理服务中心发布通告,五老峰景区和三叠泉(山上)景区预计11:30进入接待饱和状态,届时观 光车将暂停发往相关景区,建议游客预留充足时间或改期游览。 ...
一大批景区免票、优惠!杭州这些人别错过
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-19 08:40
春节假期如此可贵,不少家庭会趁此机会出门游玩!这个春节,杭州不少景区推出了针对"属马""姓马"游客的免票、优惠活动,一起来看! 桐庐县 桐庐县推出"春游桐庐·马上有喜"文旅礼包 严子陵钓台 天目溪漂流 活动内容:对全国属马游客,瑶琳仙境、严子陵钓台(开园后)、天目溪漂流三个国有景区给予免"首道"门票优惠(不含船票、景区交通和其他 二次项目)。 活动时间:即日起至2026年3月31日(不含2月15日至2月23日春节假期) 一起来看看有哪些惊喜 桐庐马年生肖主题国有景区专项福利 瑶琳仙境 马术乐园 (阿哈尔·捷金牧场) 活动内容:属马的游客享受免门票政策,姓马的游客可享受门票半价优惠,每人仅限享受1次。景区每逢星期一闭园,请提前规划行程。 活动时间:即日起至2026年3月31日(含春节假期) 琴溪香谷 活动内容:凡姓马、属马、名字中带马的游客,均可享受琴溪香谷景区首道门票买一送一的优惠。 活动时间:即日起至2026年2月23日 建德市 建德市一大波景区放大招 生肖属马、姓名含"马"、属地带"马" 就能免费畅玩 免票时间: 2026年1月24日-3月31日(覆盖新春、元宵、春游旺季,超长有效期!) 免票景区: 大慈 ...
四川多家景区近日门票售罄
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-18 21:21
成都大熊猫繁育研究基地19日上午门票已约满。都江堰熊猫谷2月19日至21日门票已售罄。 自贡中华彩灯大世界2月19日至20日第一场门票也已售罄。园区已关闭线上线下购票通道,并开放 当日夜场票预约。为保障游客观灯体验,园区延长亮灯时间至23:30。 当天,广元剑门关景区鸟道、猿猱道预约人数已达上限,并关闭预约通道;乐山大佛白天游山门 票也已售罄。此外,三星堆博物馆春节假期门票已全部售罄。 本报讯(四川日报全媒体记者 吴梦琳)2月18日,正月初二,四川多地迎来客流高峰,多家景区 发布门票售罄提示。 截至当天上午,九寨沟景区2月19日至20日门票预订已达最大承载量,未预订到门票的游客可购买 其他日期门票,或选择到甲勿海·熊猫园等周边景区游玩。 ...
限流!预约已满!河南龙门石窟、白马寺、万岁山武侠城等景区发布提醒
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-17 10:06
2月17日,河南龙门石窟、白马寺、万岁山武侠城等景区发布门票预约已满或限流,停止售票提示。春 节假期有出游计划的朋友请提前关注景区相关信息。 万岁山武侠城 因今日万岁山武侠城游客量较大,根据限量、分时、错峰的游览要求,为确保游客朋友的安全和游览体 验,万岁山武侠城现启动限流措施,今日停止线上、线下售票。已购票的游客仍可正常入园,明日将恢 复正常售票。 洛阳白马寺 2026年2月17日-2月22日(正月初一至初六)全天所有时段洛阳白马寺景区门票预约已满。已预约的游客请 按照预约时间凭身份证及优惠证件有序进寺。尚未预约的游客可调整其他时间段或择日预约参观。 龙门石窟 春节假期期间龙门石窟实行线上门票预约和线下应急购票相结合游览制。2月19日(大年初三)线上门票 预约已满,线下还有部分余票。已预约的游客请按照预约时段有序入园。2月17日、2月18日、2月20 日、2月21日、2月22日、2月23日还有余票。 洛阳博物馆 洛阳博物馆大年初一、大年初二、大年初三(2月17日、2月18日、2月19日)门票预约已满,已预约的游 客请按照预约时段有序进馆。尚未预约门票的游客可调整其他行程或择日预约参观。 丹江大观苑 2月17 ...
合肥为外地游客送福利
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-13 17:28
本报讯 2月12日,记者从合肥市文旅部门了解到,春节放假期间,合肥市国有A级景区对持有百戏入皖 门票、来肥机票(火车票)的游客免首道门票。同时,鼓励民营A级景区参与。 转自:新安晚报 (来源:新安晚报) 以4A景区合肥野生动物园为例,该景区在春节期间(2026年2月15日-2月23日)对持来肥火车票、机票 的游客免首道门票。火车票、机票的到达地应为合肥市行政区域内的各站点,乘车乘机时间应为2026年 春运启动之日(2026年2月2日)至2月23日,合肥市内区间火车票不享受优惠。参与活动的游客只需要 出示火车票、机票(电子票或纸质票均可)和本人身份证,需配合拍照并登记相关信息留存核验。本次 活动只免除景区首道门票,其余二次消费项目需要另外付费。 新安晚报 安徽网 大皖新闻记者 项磊 ...
三亚开展十大领域专项整治
Hai Nan Ri Bao· 2026-02-07 04:10
Group 1 - Sanya is implementing special rectification measures across ten key areas to regulate the tourism market and enhance service quality during the Spring Festival [2] - The ten areas include seafood and fruit markets, wedding photography, car rentals, hotels and homestays, jet skiing, shopping, travel agencies, ride-hailing, diving, and scenic area order and service quality [2] - Specific issues targeted include price fraud, false advertising, forced consumption, unlicensed operations, and safety hazards in various sectors [2][3] Group 2 - In the seafood and fruit markets, the focus will be on price fraud and ensuring compliance with pricing and measurement standards [2] - The wedding photography industry will be monitored for false advertising and forced consumption, with an emphasis on standardizing service and contract terms [2] - The car rental sector will face strict checks on unlicensed operations and vehicle safety, with a push for regulated contracts and vehicle management [2] Group 3 - The hotel and homestay industry will address price fraud and hygiene standards, promoting inter-departmental collaboration for comprehensive oversight [2] - Jet ski operations will be regulated to ensure licensed drivers and safety measures are in place, along with designated operational waters [2][3] - The tourism dining sector will focus on food safety and hygiene, enforcing documentation and sample retention protocols [2] Group 4 - Ride-hailing and bus services will be scrutinized for issues like refusal of service and unlicensed operations, aiming to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework [2] - Diving projects will enforce strict market entry and safety management, including the establishment of a comprehensive law enforcement inspection station in Sanya [3] - Scenic area management will address traffic issues and service capacity, enhancing training and emergency mechanisms for service staff [3]
多地景区推出马年限定福利属马姓马多个景区免费玩
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-24 04:11
Group 1 - Several scenic spots are offering free admission to visitors born in the Year of the Horse or with "Ma" in their name as the Lunar New Year approaches [1][2] - Visitors who are born in the years 1966, 1978, 1990, 2002, or 2014 can enter Beijing Yexiantai for free with valid identification [1] - Xinjiang Sayram Lake allows visitors born on their birthday in the Year of the Horse to exchange their ID for a free ticket at the visitor center [1] Group 2 - Hubei Suizhou Dahong Mountain Scenic Area provides free admission to visitors who are either born in the Year of the Horse or have "Ma" in their name, verified by their ID [2] - The promotions are limited to entrance tickets and do not cover additional expenses within the scenic areas [1][2] - The announcements encourage spontaneous travel plans for eligible visitors [3]
“马”上免费!全国多地景区推出马年限定福利
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-24 00:02
Group 1 - The article announces that various scenic spots are offering free admission to visitors born in the Year of the Horse or with the surname "Ma" as the Lunar New Year approaches [1][3][9] - The promotions are valid until December 31, 2026, at specific locations, allowing eligible visitors to enter without paying the entrance fee [3][20][24] - Visitors must present valid identification to verify their eligibility for the free admission [7][28][36] Group 2 - Specific scenic spots such as Yexian Tower, Sailimu Lake, and Guifeng Scenic Area have outlined their promotional periods and conditions for free entry [3][9][13] - The promotions include various time frames, with some locations offering benefits during specific months or around the Lunar New Year [11][18][20] - Additional conditions may apply, such as the requirement to purchase insurance or transportation tickets within the parks [16][24][39]
受雨雪天气影响,陕西多家景区临时关闭
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-18 16:22
Core Viewpoint - The recent snow and rain weather in Shaanxi has led to multiple scenic spots issuing closure announcements to ensure visitor safety due to expected severe weather conditions [1]. Group 1: Scenic Spot Closures - Huashan Scenic Area announced the temporary closure of its hiking routes starting from January 18 at 18:00 due to forecasts of heavy to blizzard-like snow [1]. - Other scenic spots including Cuihua Mountain, Zhongnan Mountain South Wutai, Wangshun Mountain National Forest Park, Wanchuan Cave, and Red Ge Pai Scenic Area have also issued temporary closure notices [1]. Group 2: Weather Warnings - The Shaanxi Provincial Department of Culture and Tourism and the Shaanxi Meteorological Bureau jointly issued a tourism meteorological risk warning, indicating a significant cold wave with a large temperature drop and widespread rain and snow across most of the province [1]. - The Shaanxi Meteorological Station forecasts a cold wave, rain, snow, and freezing weather from January 19 to 20, accompanied by noticeable temperature drops [1].